A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-ind

Simulation 30

India, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 30: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.92 at the 1996 position, 5.95 in 2026; 99 actions over 30 rounds and 11 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 30

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (median simulation), 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 5.95 (−2.97); From 8.92
Rank by index: 99; From 59
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 11 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5		8.93 +0.008
1998	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Build Air Power 12 Build Maritime Power 12	Trade bloc rupture	8.90 −0.028
1999	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 9	Regional war spillover	8.55 −0.351
2000	Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 4 Build Nuclear Deterrence 8		8.52 −0.031
2001	Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 4 Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Air Power 6	Core disaster	8.13 −0.385
2002	Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 4 Build Nuclear Deterrence 11 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 11 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 0		8.14 +0.007
2003	Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 4 Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 4		8.15 +0.004
2004	Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 4 Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 4	Core disaster	7.88 −0.267
2005	Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Air Power 7		7.88 +0.001
2006	Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Air Power 9		7.87 −0.007
2007	Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Air Power 8		7.87 −0.002
2008	Build Nuclear Deterrence 10 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Air Power 8	Global funding seizureBreadbasket failure	7.52 −0.350
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.51 −0.007
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		7.51 −0.005
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.51 −0.002
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		7.51 +0.001
2013	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Early Childhood Development 8 Build Health System Capability 3	Global funding seizure	7.34 −0.163
2014	Build Foundational Education 8 Build Early Childhood Development 3		7.35 +0.002
2015	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Digital & AI Competence 3		7.35 +0.002
2016	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Digital & AI Competence 3	Global funding seizurePublic service leap	7.14 −0.204
2017	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4		7.23 +0.084
2018	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3		7.31 +0.082
2019	No actions		7.30 −0.008
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	6.67 −0.638
2021	No actions		6.63 −0.036
2022	No actions	Breadbasket failureTrade bloc rupture	6.28 −0.354
2023	No actions		6.16 −0.115
2024	No actions		6.04 −0.118
2025	No actions		5.99 −0.052
2026	No actions		5.95 −0.044

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	9
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
National Security	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Human Capital	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	10	10	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17
Financial Strength	16	16	16	16	17	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	23	22	22	22	24	24	25	25	25	25	25
Production & Innovation	13	13	13	13	13	14	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	17	17	17	17	17
Trade & Investment	10	10	10	11	10	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−0.211	−16.1	0.00
No shocks	+4.136	+296.3	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.002	−0.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.821	+58.3	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.830	+60.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.564	+41.3	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	4.87	5.46	+0.59	+2.13	−0.07	−1.49	+0.01
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	10.22	+0.35	+2.95	−0.60	−1.75	−0.25
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	10.70	+0.33	+2.80	−0.55	−1.58	−0.34
Air Power	National Security	10.19	9.48	−0.71	+1.65	−0.57	−1.43	−0.36
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	9.45	−0.84	+0.61	−0.20	−1.16	−0.09
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.28	7.86	−1.42	0.00	−0.10	−1.25	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.20	8.75	−1.45	0.00	−0.11	−1.21	−0.13
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.46	6.97	−1.49	+1.19	−0.15	−1.89	−0.64
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	7.11	−1.50	+2.00	−0.31	−2.96	−0.24
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.76	7.21	−1.55	+0.82	−0.15	−1.77	−0.46
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.78	−1.56	0.00	−0.09	−1.44	−0.04
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	6.78	−1.62	0.00	−0.09	−1.28	−0.25
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	4.61	−1.66	0.00	−0.36	−1.28	−0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.57	8.86	−1.71	0.00	−0.11	−1.49	−0.11
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	10.72	−1.74	+1.80	−0.66	−1.38	−1.50
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.04	−1.79	0.00	−0.13	−1.54	−0.12
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	9.63	−1.81	+2.06	−0.42	−3.48	+0.02
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	6.03	−1.83	0.00	−0.13	−1.54	−0.16
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	8.18	−1.92	0.00	−0.17	−1.48	−0.27
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	3.20	−2.04	0.00	−0.26	−1.60	−0.18
Maritime Power	National Security	9.18	7.14	−2.04	+0.44	−0.44	−1.87	−0.17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	3.02	−2.06	0.00	−0.24	−1.61	−0.21
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	6.64	−2.08	0.00	−0.41	−1.55	−0.11
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	7.21	5.05	−2.16	0.00	−0.40	−1.55	−0.21
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	7.18	−2.16	+2.27	−0.32	−3.84	−0.27
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.02	6.84	−2.18	+1.60	−0.23	−3.06	−0.49
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	10.07	7.89	−2.18	0.00	−0.17	−1.48	−0.53
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	6.71	−2.18	0.00	−0.09	−1.79	−0.30
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	7.43	−2.20	0.00	−0.46	−1.53	−0.21
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	2.51	−2.23	0.00	−0.21	−1.93	−0.09
Space Operations	National Security	6.97	4.73	−2.24	0.00	−0.30	−1.59	−0.35
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.99	4.72	−2.27	+1.76	−0.16	−3.53	−0.34
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.77	6.49	−2.28	0.00	−0.50	−1.50	−0.27
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.98	5.67	−2.31	0.00	−0.45	−1.53	−0.33
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.73	5.38	−2.35	+0.78	−0.18	−2.39	−0.56
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	6.50	4.12	−2.38	0.00	−0.33	−1.87	−0.17
Land Power	National Security	12.00	9.59	−2.41	0.00	−0.60	−1.47	−0.34
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	7.49	−2.49	0.00	−0.35	−2.12	−0.01
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.12	−2.63	0.00	−0.34	−2.13	−0.17
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.49	7.82	−2.67	0.00	−0.37	−2.10	−0.19
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	6.02	−2.69	0.00	−0.38	−1.93	−0.39
Population Health	Human Capital	7.78	4.98	−2.80	0.00	−0.08	−2.31	−0.41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	1.97	−2.81	0.00	−0.17	−2.47	−0.17
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.45	6.54	−2.91	+1.87	−0.19	−4.52	−0.08
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	7.59	−2.97	0.00	−0.26	−2.01	−0.70
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	8.18	−3.10	0.00	−0.28	−2.09	−0.73
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.86	6.76	−3.10	0.00	−0.23	−2.03	−0.84
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	6.10	−3.12	0.00	−0.08	−2.52	−0.52
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	6.86	−3.17	0.00	−0.24	−2.44	−0.49
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	6.26	−3.19	0.00	−0.49	−2.44	−0.25
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	4.35	−3.26	0.00	−0.21	−2.19	−0.86
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	5.71	−3.26	0.00	−0.27	−2.83	−0.16
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.37	7.06	−3.31	0.00	−0.09	−2.84	−0.38
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	5.68	−3.43	+0.17	−0.13	−2.77	−0.70
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	6.50	−3.43	0.00	−0.32	−2.86	−0.26
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	5.11	−3.53	0.00	−0.23	−3.23	−0.07
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	5.23	−3.73	0.00	−0.24	−3.21	−0.27
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	3.78	−3.86	0.00	−0.12	−3.33	−0.41
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.57	5.57	−4.00	0.00	−0.26	−3.19	−0.56
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	4.23	−4.03	0.00	−0.15	−3.25	−0.63
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.89	4.64	−4.25	0.00	−0.16	−3.12	−0.97
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	5.88	−4.35	0.00	−0.17	−4.06	−0.12
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	5.81	−4.46	0.00	−0.17	−4.05	−0.24
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.60	3.79	−4.81	0.00	−0.18	−4.07	−0.56
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	4.62	−4.86	0.00	−0.22	−4.20	−0.44
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	4.99	−4.95	0.00	−0.24	−4.23	−0.49
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	2.73	−5.05	0.00	−0.14	−4.29	−0.62
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	7.23	1.87	−5.36	0.00	−0.10	−4.81	−0.46
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.53	3.16	−5.37	0.00	−0.16	−4.67	−0.55
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.02	2.63	−5.39	0.00	−0.13	−4.95	−0.32
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.35	4.64	−5.71	0.00	−0.14	−4.80	−0.76
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.52	1.53	−6.99	0.00	−0.09	−6.59	−0.31
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.23	2.04	−7.19	0.00	−0.07	−6.47	−0.65

Seed 30 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ind. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.