Round 24 · simulation 27 · cycle-002.e4-irl

Round 2020

Round 24 of 30 in simulation 27 of Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 5 actions, Trade bloc rupture and Severe pandemic, and the index −0.554 to 12.27.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2020 (the end of 2019) and as it left it.

Capability index
12.27 (−0.554)
In: 12.82
Rank by index
27
In: 23
Domains at Tier 1
5
In: 7
Credits carried
79
In: 144
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology8.637.96−0.6655
Strategic Infrastructure13.7913.51−0.2821
National Security6.456.11−0.3427
Human Capital14.2413.84−0.4031
Information & Influence12.7411.95−0.7841 → 2
Governance & Integrity14.6114.26−0.3461
Financial Strength16.4015.73−0.6681 → 2
Production & Innovation14.3713.72−0.6551
Trade & Investment14.1913.35−0.8431

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2020: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 455, plus 144 carried in. Maintenance 406. Spent 114 on actions (build 114). 79 carried over.

  • BuildNational Resilience & Crisis Management23 credits for 1.02 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildHealth System Capability23 credits for 1.10 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies23 credits for 1.54 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildDigital & Services Trade23 credits for 1.36 levelsscripted_history
  • BuildGovernment Effectiveness & Public Administration23 credits for 0.31 levelsscripted_history
  • Shock: Trade bloc rupture S01. −35.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
  • Shock: Severe pandemic S10. −31.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 1 to 2; Financial Strength Tier 1 to 2.

The groups that moved most in 2020, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Biotechnology & Health Technologies−1.320.000.00−1.320.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−1.310.000.00−1.34+0.02
Information Environment & Strategic Communication−1.160.000.00−1.160.00
Economic Leverage & Dependence−1.030.000.00−1.030.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−1.020.000.00−1.03+0.01
Export Capability & Sophistication−0.990.000.00−1.00+0.01