A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-irl

Simulation 27

Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 27: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.93 at the 1996 position, 12.09 in 2026; 147 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 27

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (median simulation), 2 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 12.09 (+0.16); From 11.93
Rank by index: 28; From 29
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 1
Events: 3 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		11.95 +0.025
1998	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		12.00 +0.050
1999	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 19 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 19 Partner Advanced Education 19 Partner Transport Infrastructure 19 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19		12.06 +0.059
2000	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Advanced Education 20 Partner Transport Infrastructure 20 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20		12.12 +0.057
2001	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 20 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 20 Partner Advanced Education 20 Partner Transport Infrastructure 20 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20		12.18 +0.055
2002	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.23 +0.058
2003	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.30 +0.062
2004	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 21 Build Financial System Depth & Access 21 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 21		12.37 +0.073
2005	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.45 +0.076
2006	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.52 +0.072
2007	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 22 Build Financial System Depth & Access 22 Build Transport Infrastructure 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22		12.59 +0.068
2008	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Build Labour & Employment 22 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 22 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 22	Global funding seizure	12.13 −0.454
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 23 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 23 Build Labour & Employment 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 23		12.20 +0.067
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.27 +0.069
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.34 +0.071
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 21 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 21 Build Labour & Employment 21 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 21 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 21		12.41 +0.069
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 22 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 22 Build Labour & Employment 22 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 22 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 22	Debt service reset	12.48 +0.067
2014	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 22 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 22 Build Digital & AI Competence 22 Build Energy Technologies 22 Build Social Infrastructure 22		12.54 +0.069
2015	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.61 +0.068
2016	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.67 +0.061
2017	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.74 +0.061
2018	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 24 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 24 Build Digital & AI Competence 24 Build Energy Technologies 24 Build Social Infrastructure 24		12.79 +0.053
2019	Build Investment Attraction & Projection 23 Build Innovation & Commercialisation 23 Build Digital & AI Competence 23 Build Energy Technologies 23 Build Social Infrastructure 23		12.82 +0.035
2020	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 23 Build Health System Capability 23 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 23 Build Digital & Services Trade 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 23	Trade bloc ruptureSevere pandemic	12.27 −0.554
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 23 Build Health System Capability 23 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 23 Build Digital & Services Trade 23 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10		12.15 −0.116
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 19 Build Health System Capability 10		12.02 −0.137
2023	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 19 Build Health System Capability 19 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 19 Build Digital & Services Trade 19 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12		12.04 +0.026
2024	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.06 +0.023
2025	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.08 +0.014
2026	Build Social Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 9 Build Digital & AI Competence 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9		12.09 +0.012

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	4	4	4	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	4	4	4	4	4
Governance & Integrity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	9	9	8	8	7	6	2	2	2	2	2	1	4	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Production & Innovation	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	5	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.028	−140.8	−5.00
No shocks	+1.311	+88.1	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.007	+0.5	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.561	+39.2	+1.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.418	+26.3	+1.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.430	+30.3	+1.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	18.97	+7.57	+7.91	−0.74	+0.41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	13.24	+6.88	+7.99	−1.15	+0.04
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	20.00	+6.61	+9.92	−0.62	+0.33
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.43	19.85	+6.42	+6.85	−0.86	+0.85
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	13.08	19.33	+6.25	+7.57	−1.38	+0.06
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.88	19.47	+4.59	+5.71	−1.27	+0.14
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.21	18.16	+3.95	+4.71	−0.82	+0.05
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	12.16	15.76	+3.60	+6.24	−2.57	−0.07
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	12.84	16.39	+3.55	+5.69	−2.24	+0.11
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	15.39	18.94	+3.55	+6.99	−2.75	−0.01
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	17.55	+3.19	+6.18	−2.78	−0.21
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.79	15.93	+3.14	+5.35	−2.43	+0.23
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	17.04	+3.11	+5.28	−2.22	+0.05
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.66	17.69	+3.03	+3.56	−0.73	+0.21
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.49	16.42	+2.93	+3.55	−1.13	+0.51
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	16.54	+2.88	+4.90	−2.00	−0.02
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.52	13.38	+2.86	+4.21	−1.41	+0.05
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.95	15.56	+2.61	+3.38	−1.27	+0.50
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.08	17.40	+2.32	+3.73	−1.97	+0.56
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.48	9.70	+0.22	+0.59	−0.57	+0.20
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.65	+0.01
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	10.43	−0.18	0.00	−0.82	+0.64
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.91	14.67	−0.24	0.00	−1.01	+0.77
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.04	11.78	−0.26	0.00	−0.74	+0.48
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	7.73	−0.39	0.00	−0.58	+0.19
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.48	7.07	−0.41	0.00	−0.59	+0.17
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	14.15	−0.49	0.00	−1.10	+0.62
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	11.38	−0.50	0.00	−0.81	+0.31
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.82	8.23	−0.59	0.00	−0.84	+0.25
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.19	10.56	−0.63	0.00	−0.75	+0.12
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.72	−0.64	0.00	−0.59	−0.05
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	7.96	−0.69	0.00	−0.58	−0.11
Air Power	National Security	6.32	5.63	−0.69	0.00	−0.60	−0.10
Land Power	National Security	7.73	7.03	−0.70	0.00	−0.58	−0.11
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.05	13.34	−0.71	0.00	−0.87	+0.16
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	14.39	13.64	−0.75	0.00	−0.86	+0.10
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.74	10.98	−0.76	0.00	−0.74	−0.01
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	14.70	13.88	−0.82	0.00	−0.70	−0.12
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	3.66	−0.85	0.00	−0.61	−0.24
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	5.59	−0.85	0.00	−0.87	+0.02
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	14.36	13.46	−0.90	0.00	−0.86	−0.04
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.76	−0.90	0.00	−0.78	−0.12
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	14.09	13.18	−0.91	0.00	−0.87	−0.04
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	13.87	−0.92	0.00	−0.85	−0.06
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	13.66	12.73	−0.93	0.00	−1.67	+0.74
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.64	−0.94	0.00	−0.61	−0.32
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.05	13.03	−1.02	0.00	−1.15	+0.12
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	13.92	−1.07	0.00	−1.35	+0.29
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	12.88	−1.09	0.00	−0.79	−0.30
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.59	−1.09	0.00	−1.05	−0.03
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.67	−1.24	0.00	−1.32	+0.07
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	11.60	10.24	−1.36	0.00	−1.41	+0.06
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	12.30	−1.49	0.00	−2.57	+1.08
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.78	4.29	−1.49	0.00	−1.52	+0.04
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.88	8.38	−1.50	0.00	−1.42	−0.08
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.53	13.01	−1.52	0.00	−1.66	+0.13
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	10.48	8.88	−1.60	0.00	−1.43	−0.17
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	1.93	−1.60	0.00	−1.57	−0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.23	6.60	−1.63	0.00	−1.46	−0.17
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	4.89	−1.69	0.00	−1.50	−0.19
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	13.30	11.37	−1.93	0.00	−1.68	−0.25
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.91	10.94	−1.97	0.00	−1.88	−0.09
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	9.69	7.67	−2.02	0.00	−1.99	−0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	10.65	8.63	−2.02	0.00	−1.96	−0.06
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.40	8.33	−2.07	0.00	−1.83	−0.23
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.39	10.31	−2.08	0.00	−2.39	+0.31
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	9.09	−2.11	0.00	−1.98	−0.14
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	13.07	10.74	−2.33	0.00	−2.22	−0.11
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	12.10	9.72	−2.38	0.00	−2.40	+0.02
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	15.26	12.44	−2.82	0.00	−2.59	−0.23
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	12.93	10.08	−2.85	0.00	−2.67	−0.18
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	12.42	−2.91	0.00	−2.59	−0.33
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.34	7.32	−3.02	0.00	−2.76	−0.26

Seed 27 of experiment cycle-002.e4-irl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.