Simulation 3
Kazakhstan, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.45 at the 1996 position, 6.48 in 2026; 200 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 1 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 7 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 6.48 (−0.96)
- From 7.45
- Rank by index
- 90
- From 74
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 7.46 +0.017 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.34 −0.118 |
| 1999 |
| 7.38 +0.036 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.42 +0.037 | |
| 2001 |
| 7.46 +0.043 | |
| 2002 |
| 7.51 +0.045 | |
| 2003 |
| 7.55 +0.048 | |
| 2004 |
| 7.59 +0.038 | |
| 2005 |
| 7.62 +0.026 | |
| 2006 |
| 7.64 +0.025 | |
| 2007 |
| 7.67 +0.024 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.49 −0.173 |
| 2009 |
| 7.51 +0.015 | |
| 2010 |
| 7.52 +0.011 | |
| 2011 |
| 7.53 +0.012 | |
| 2012 |
| 7.54 +0.012 | |
| 2013 |
| 7.55 +0.011 | |
| 2014 |
| 7.58 +0.022 | |
| 2015 |
| Global funding seizureMarket access opening | 7.46 −0.115 |
| 2016 |
| 7.52 +0.058 | |
| 2017 |
| 7.59 +0.075 | |
| 2018 |
| 7.64 +0.047 | |
| 2019 |
| 7.69 +0.047 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.17 −0.519 |
| 2021 |
| 7.21 +0.036 | |
| 2022 |
| Legitimacy ruptureTrade bloc rupture | 6.71 −0.500 |
| 2023 |
| 6.60 −0.101 | |
| 2024 |
| 6.49 −0.115 | |
| 2025 |
| 6.48 −0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 6.48 −0.001 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Information & Influence | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Financial Strength | 20 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Production & Innovation | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Trade & Investment | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.098 | −78.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.164 | +149.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.649 | +45.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.442 | +30.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.364 | +25.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.60 | 12.70 | +4.10 | +5.11 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.24 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 13.29 | +3.48 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.12 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.55 | 12.77 | +3.22 | +3.81 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.28 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.77 | 10.88 | +3.11 | +4.41 | 0.00 | −1.54 | +0.24 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.67 | 12.13 | +2.46 | +3.23 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.07 | 8.07 | +2.00 | +3.97 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.29 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.59 | 9.07 | +1.48 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −3.29 | −0.14 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 10.05 | 11.24 | +1.19 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.08 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.40 | 10.50 | +1.10 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.17 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.10 | 10.77 | +0.67 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.37 | 10.02 | +0.65 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.31 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.67 | 7.06 | +0.39 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.08 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 9.16 | 9.45 | +0.29 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.51 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 8.46 | +0.25 | +2.14 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 7.71 | 7.78 | +0.07 | +1.78 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 8.14 | 7.69 | −0.45 | +1.99 | 0.00 | −2.22 | −0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.31 | 7.77 | −0.54 | +3.68 | 0.00 | −3.98 | −0.24 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 8.48 | 7.91 | −0.57 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.13 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.86 | 8.24 | −0.62 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.63 | 8.96 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.29 | 8.53 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 7.43 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.07 | 9.24 | −0.83 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.71 | 8.83 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | 0.00 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.40 | 7.47 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.04 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.86 | 9.91 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.16 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 8.99 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.17 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.17 | 6.11 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.02 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.66 | 6.60 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.40 | 6.24 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 7.20 | 6.03 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.01 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.06 | 4.89 | −1.17 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 2.50 | 1.32 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.03 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.25 | 9.06 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.01 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.88 | 5.68 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.12 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.94 | 5.71 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.15 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.26 | 7.02 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.18 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.50 | 5.24 | −1.26 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −2.42 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 3.32 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.14 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.94 | 8.65 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.11 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 4.40 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.20 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 0.00 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.49 | 7.09 | −1.40 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −4.19 | −0.31 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.15 | 4.72 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.51 | 4.05 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 6.67 | 5.21 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.08 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.95 | 2.48 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.13 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.55 | 7.02 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.20 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.65 | 8.09 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.17 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.04 | 2.46 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.03 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.73 | 2.14 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.03 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.08 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 1.80 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.32 | 7.66 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.08 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 3.43 | 1.70 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.66 | 5.88 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 6.80 | 5.01 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 7.92 | 6.13 | −1.79 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −2.73 | −0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 6.79 | 4.88 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 3.52 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.02 | 7.05 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.21 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.62 | 2.57 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.47 | 5.17 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | +0.12 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 8.52 | 6.21 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.69 | +0.39 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 7.38 | 5.02 | −2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.19 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.73 | 3.15 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.25 | 5.56 | −2.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.15 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.38 | 5.52 | −2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.18 | 4.29 | −2.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.57 | −0.32 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.00 | 4.03 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.94 | −0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.14 | 5.02 | −3.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.26 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 7.23 | 4.05 | −3.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.01 | −0.17 |
Seed 3 of experiment cycle-002.e4-kaz. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.