A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-kaz

Simulation 1

Kazakhstan, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.45 at the 1996 position, 6.48 in 2026; 200 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 7 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 6.48 (−0.97); From 7.45
Rank by index: 90; From 74
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Resource Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Infrastructure 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5		7.46 +0.017
1998	Partner Resource Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Infrastructure 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 7	Global funding seizure	7.34 −0.118
1999	Partner Resource Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Infrastructure 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 5		7.38 +0.036
2000	Partner Resource Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Infrastructure 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 1		7.42 +0.037
2001	Partner Resource Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Infrastructure 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Transport Infrastructure 1		7.46 +0.042
2002	Partner Resource Infrastructure 9 Partner Energy Infrastructure 9 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 3 Build Transport Infrastructure 3		7.50 +0.044
2003	Partner Resource Infrastructure 9 Partner Energy Infrastructure 9 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Financial System Depth & Access 2		7.55 +0.047
2004	Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 4		7.59 +0.037
2005	Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 4		7.61 +0.025
2006	Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 4		7.64 +0.024
2007	Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Financial System Depth & Access 4 Build Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 4		7.66 +0.023
2008	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4	Global funding seizure	7.49 −0.174
2009	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		7.50 +0.014
2010	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		7.51 +0.011
2011	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		7.52 +0.012
2012	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		7.54 +0.012
2013	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4		7.55 +0.011
2014	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9		7.57 +0.022
2015	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Advanced Manufacturing 4 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 4 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9	Global funding seizureMarket access opening	7.45 −0.115
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9		7.51 +0.058
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Buy Artificial Intelligence 4 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 4 Buy Advanced Education 4 Buy Digital & Services Trade 4		7.59 +0.075
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Buy Artificial Intelligence 4 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 4 Buy Advanced Education 4 Buy Digital & Services Trade 4		7.63 +0.047
2019	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Buy Artificial Intelligence 4 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 4 Buy Advanced Education 4 Buy Digital & Services Trade 4		7.68 +0.047
2020	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Buy Artificial Intelligence 4 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 4 Buy Advanced Education 4 Buy Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Population Health 4 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 4	Severe pandemic	7.16 −0.519
2021	Buy Digital & AI Competence 4 Buy Artificial Intelligence 4 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 4 Buy Advanced Education 4 Buy Digital & Services Trade 4 Build Health System Capability 4 Build Population Health 4 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 4		7.20 +0.037
2022	Buy Digital & AI Competence 3 Buy Artificial Intelligence 3 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 3 Buy Advanced Education 3 Buy Digital & Services Trade 3 Build Health System Capability 3 Build Population Health 3 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 3	Legitimacy ruptureTrade bloc rupture	6.70 −0.500
2023	Buy Digital & AI Competence 3 Buy Artificial Intelligence 3 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 3 Buy Advanced Education 3 Buy Digital & Services Trade 3 Build Health System Capability 3 Build Population Health 3 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 3		6.60 −0.100
2024	Buy Digital & AI Competence 2 Buy Artificial Intelligence 2 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 2 Buy Advanced Education 2 Buy Digital & Services Trade 2		6.48 −0.115
2025	Buy Digital & AI Competence 2 Buy Artificial Intelligence 2 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 2 Buy Advanced Education 2 Buy Digital & Services Trade 2		6.48 −0.006
2026	Buy Digital & AI Competence 3 Buy Artificial Intelligence 3 Buy Innovation & Commercialisation 3 Buy Advanced Education 3 Buy Digital & Services Trade 3		6.48 0.000

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	10	9	10	9	9	9	9
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Information & Influence	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	12	12	13	13	13	13	13
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	15	14	15	13	15	14	14	14	15
Financial Strength	20	20	21	20	20	18	18	16	16	16	16	16	18	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	19	20	22	23	23	23	23
Production & Innovation	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	14	14	14	14	14	14	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	11
Trade & Investment	13	13	13	12	12	11	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	12	12	13	13	13

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−1.098	−78.2
No shocks	+2.164	+149.9
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.004	−0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.009	−0.6
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.010	−0.7
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.004	−0.4
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.649	+45.5
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.442	+30.9
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.364	+25.1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.60	12.75	+4.15	+5.10	−0.77	−0.18
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	13.39	+3.58	+4.30	−0.67	−0.05
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.55	12.71	+3.16	+3.81	−0.87	+0.22
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	10.80	+3.03	+4.42	−1.54	+0.15
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.67	12.13	+2.46	+3.23	−0.81	+0.04
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.07	7.83	+1.76	+3.99	−1.68	−0.54
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	9.11	+1.52	+4.91	−3.29	−0.10
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.05	11.26	+1.21	+2.92	−1.66	−0.04
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	10.57	+1.17	+1.75	−0.82	+0.24
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	10.74	+0.64	+1.45	−0.81	+0.01
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	9.90	+0.53	+1.19	−0.84	+0.18
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	7.04	+0.37	+2.33	−1.86	−0.09
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	8.49	+0.28	+2.13	−2.08	+0.22
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.16	9.37	+0.21	+1.70	−1.93	+0.43
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.71	7.76	+0.05	+1.78	−1.62	−0.11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00	−0.36	0.00	−1.19	−0.03
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	7.86	−0.45	+3.68	−3.98	−0.15
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.14	7.68	−0.46	+1.99	−2.22	−0.22
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	7.94	−0.54	+0.77	−1.21	−0.09
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.86	8.24	−0.62	+0.72	−1.35	+0.01
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.63	8.96	−0.67	0.00	−0.70	+0.04
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	8.53	−0.76	0.00	−0.81	+0.05
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	7.38	−0.87	0.00	−0.82	−0.05
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.07	9.18	−0.89	+0.59	−1.40	−0.08
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	9.93	−0.93	0.00	−0.78	−0.14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.71	8.77	−0.94	0.00	−0.88	−0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.40	7.43	−0.97	0.00	−0.90	−0.07
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	9.03	−1.00	0.00	−0.88	−0.13
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.17	6.17	−1.00	0.00	−1.08	+0.08
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.66	6.60	−1.06	0.00	−1.07	0.00
Air Power	National Security	6.88	5.72	−1.16	0.00	−1.08	−0.07
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	6.24	−1.16	0.00	−1.07	−0.09
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	9.08	−1.17	0.00	−1.18	+0.01
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.20	6.03	−1.17	0.00	−1.18	+0.01
Maritime Power	National Security	2.50	1.32	−1.18	0.00	−1.16	−0.02
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.06	4.87	−1.19	+0.99	−2.11	−0.07
Land Power	National Security	8.26	7.03	−1.23	0.00	−1.06	−0.17
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.67	−1.27	0.00	−1.08	−0.18
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.50	5.21	−1.29	+1.16	−2.42	−0.03
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.27	−1.31	0.00	−1.12	−0.19
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.37	−1.33	0.00	−1.10	−0.23
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.00	−1.39	0.00	−2.07	+0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.94	8.54	−1.40	0.00	−1.18	−0.22
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.15	4.72	−1.43	0.00	−1.40	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.67	5.20	−1.47	0.00	−1.38	−0.09
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.51	4.03	−1.48	0.00	−1.41	−0.07
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.55	7.07	−1.48	0.00	−1.33	−0.15
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.49	7.00	−1.49	+3.10	−4.20	−0.40
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	2.45	−1.50	0.00	−1.60	+0.10
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.65	8.15	−1.50	0.00	−1.39	−0.11
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	2.17	−1.56	0.00	−1.61	+0.05
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	2.45	−1.59	0.00	−1.60	+0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	3.09	−1.60	0.00	−1.58	−0.02
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	1.80	−1.64	0.00	−1.61	−0.03
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.32	7.60	−1.72	0.00	−1.58	−0.14
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	1.67	−1.76	0.00	−1.61	−0.16
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.66	5.88	−1.78	0.00	−1.79	0.00
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	7.92	6.13	−1.79	+0.97	−2.73	−0.03
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	4.98	−1.82	0.00	−1.81	−0.01
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.02	7.11	−1.91	0.00	−1.76	−0.15
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	3.53	−1.91	0.00	−1.95	+0.03
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.79	4.86	−1.93	0.00	−1.77	−0.15
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	2.64	−1.98	0.00	−1.85	−0.13
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.47	5.19	−2.28	0.00	−2.42	+0.14
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	5.06	−2.32	0.00	−2.16	−0.15
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.52	6.13	−2.39	0.00	−2.70	+0.31
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.73	3.14	−2.59	0.00	−2.55	−0.03
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.25	5.61	−2.64	0.00	−2.54	−0.10
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.38	5.52	−2.86	0.00	−2.85	0.00
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	4.30	−2.88	0.00	−2.57	−0.30
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.00	4.02	−2.98	0.00	−2.94	−0.04
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.14	5.07	−3.07	0.00	−2.87	−0.20
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	7.23	4.00	−3.23	0.00	−3.01	−0.23

Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-kaz. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.