Simulation 11
Mexico, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 11: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.67 at the 1996 position, 8.21 in 2026; 175 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 11
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 25 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 22 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.21 (−1.45)
- From 9.67
- Rank by index
- 64
- From 49
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 9.68 +0.009 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.53 −0.147 |
| 1999 |
| 9.55 +0.018 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.57 +0.020 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.58 +0.017 | |
| 2002 |
| 9.60 +0.012 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.61 +0.011 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.62 +0.015 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.64 +0.016 | |
| 2006 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.46 −0.175 |
| 2007 |
| 9.48 +0.017 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.16 −0.320 |
| 2009 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.98 −0.183 |
| 2010 |
| 8.98 +0.002 | |
| 2011 |
| 8.98 +0.001 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.99 +0.010 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.00 +0.013 | |
| 2014 |
| 9.02 +0.018 | |
| 2015 |
| 9.04 +0.017 | |
| 2016 |
| 9.05 +0.015 | |
| 2017 |
| 9.07 +0.015 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 8.99 −0.078 |
| 2019 |
| 8.91 −0.077 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.26 −0.658 |
| 2021 |
| 8.27 +0.010 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 8.14 −0.129 |
| 2023 |
| 8.14 +0.006 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.16 +0.017 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.19 +0.026 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.21 +0.029 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Production & Innovation | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.791 | −59.9 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.248 | +156.9 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.004 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.659 | +46.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.461 | +31.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.352 | +24.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 14.15 | +3.54 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.10 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 12.23 | +3.34 | +4.68 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.58 | 13.81 | +3.23 | +4.88 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.41 | 13.58 | +2.17 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.09 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.31 | 6.64 | +1.33 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.54 | 12.85 | +1.31 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.86 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.56 | 12.73 | +1.17 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.11 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.65 | 14.49 | +0.84 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.29 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 8.44 | 9.19 | +0.75 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.08 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 9.73 | 10.17 | +0.44 | +1.73 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.09 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.80 | 11.13 | +0.33 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.20 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.48 | 9.70 | +0.22 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.40 | 11.18 | −0.22 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.44 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.03 | 10.68 | −0.35 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.21 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 8.90 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.12 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.68 | 8.61 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 11.07 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.36 | 6.26 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.11 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 9.24 | −1.13 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −2.02 | +0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 7.58 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.14 | 7.98 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.20 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 8.11 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.09 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.09 | 7.91 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.11 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.80 | 7.59 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 7.43 | 6.21 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.24 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.12 | 6.84 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.31 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.50 | 7.21 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.73 | 7.43 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 4.39 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.30 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 11.44 | 10.08 | −1.36 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −2.39 | +0.11 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 11.90 | 10.54 | −1.36 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −3.31 | −0.10 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.78 | 4.39 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.38 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.91 | 6.44 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.35 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 9.89 | 8.35 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.07 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.11 | 8.56 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.34 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.96 | 10.35 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.41 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.29 | 10.63 | −1.66 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −2.27 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.43 | 8.72 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.50 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.95 | 10.24 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.35 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 12.53 | 10.82 | −1.71 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −2.59 | −0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.71 | 3.95 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.21 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.21 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 9.19 | −1.79 | +0.95 | 0.00 | −2.76 | +0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.30 | 9.50 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.05 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.06 | 11.26 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 2.80 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.64 | 3.74 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.13 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 1.53 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.08 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.06 | 2.05 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.20 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.31 | 10.23 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.26 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 7.37 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.11 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.44 | 3.26 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.18 | 1.99 | −2.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.03 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.66 | 9.45 | −2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | −0.12 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 8.11 | 5.87 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.31 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 4.47 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.50 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 6.71 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 10.31 | 8.05 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.25 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.78 | 8.26 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.20 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.21 | 6.66 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.27 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 8.49 | −2.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 9.13 | −2.85 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −3.40 | −0.34 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.61 | 10.71 | −2.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.68 | −0.22 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.97 | 8.06 | −2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.73 | 2.67 | −3.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | −0.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 8.90 | −3.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.24 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.95 | 6.83 | −3.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.97 | −0.15 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 6.77 | −3.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.81 | −0.35 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.89 | 6.73 | −3.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.81 | −0.36 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 8.62 | −3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.27 | −0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.06 | 7.45 | −3.61 | +0.77 | 0.00 | −3.96 | −0.42 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 8.58 | 4.92 | −3.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.54 | −0.12 |
Seed 11 of experiment cycle-002.e4-mex. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.