E4 · cycle-002.e4-mex

Mexico, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Mexico decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 10, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 13, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 8.21 (−1.45); From 9.67; 8.20 to 8.22
Rank by index: 64; From 49; 64 to 64
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 47; From 56; 34 to 47

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.67	8.20	8.21	8.22	higher
Rank by index	49	64	64	64	lower
Tier rank	56	34	47	47	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	687.5	591.1	591.9	592.3	higher
Goal-weighted score	687.5	591.1	591.9	592.3	higher
Resilient score	687.5	591.8 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 79 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 21 per cent of the 991 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Mexico actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.67; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 10.85; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 8.21; 8.16 to 8.27
Skill against persistence: −1.13; group error 2.78 against 1.31 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.09	6.54	3.33 3.3–3.4	−3.21	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	11.30	12.74	11.31 11.2–11.4	−1.43	wrong
National Security	7.11	7.28	6.00 5.9–6.0	−1.29	wrong
Human Capital	10.19	10.86	10.01 10.0–10.1	−0.85	wrong
Information & Influence	10.92	11.71	8.64 8.6–8.7	−3.07	wrong
Governance & Integrity	9.55	10.80	9.31 9.3–9.3	−1.50	wrong
Financial Strength	11.03	12.72	8.25 8.2–8.3	−4.47	wrong
Production & Innovation	10.18	11.48	7.91 7.9–8.0	−3.56	wrong
Trade & Investment	11.60	13.52	9.17 9.1–9.2	−4.36	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.4 The Asian and Russian crises triggered external financing stress and a drop in oil prices, but Mexico's post-1995 buffers and IMF support prevented a sovereign funding seizure.
2006 · S05 × 0.4 The disputed presidential election led Lopez Obrador to proclaim a parallel government and blockade central Mexico City, but courts and institutions held.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis and US recession collapsed Mexican exports, remittances and FDI, producing a deep recession though the banking system survived.
2009 · S10 × 0.3 The H1N1 influenza pandemic began in Mexico, triggering shutdowns and a tourism shock but with far lower mortality than the 2020 pandemic.
2018 · S01 × 0.5 US tariff threats and the forced NAFTA renegotiation created trade policy uncertainty and discouraged investment until the USMCA was signed.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 COVID-19 hit Mexico with very high excess mortality, strained hospitals and caused an eight per cent economic contraction.
2022 · S06 × 0.4 The Russia-Ukraine war and supply disruptions raised imported grain and fertiliser prices, feeding food-price inflation and pressures on poor households.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 2% each The Zedillo government consolidated the post-1994 macro-financial rescue, strengthened the autonomous Bank of Mexico and continued NAFTA-driven trade and customs integration. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial System Depth & Access, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2000–2006 · build · 2% each The Fox administration expanded Oportunidades conditional cash transfers, began Seguro Popular health coverage and invested in housing and electoral pluralism after the democratic alternation. (Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Early Childhood Development, Population Health, Health System Capability, Social Infrastructure)
2006–2012 · build · 2% each Calderon's government launched the militarised drug war, a major judicial reform in 2008 and large infrastructure concessions in transport, energy and telecommunications. (Internal Security & Order, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure)
2012–2018 · partner · 2% each The Pacto por Mexico reforms opened energy and telecommunications to private and foreign participation, created independent regulators and sought quality improvements in education. (Energy Technologies, Energy Infrastructure, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Advanced Education)
2018–2024 · build · 5% each Lopez Obrador prioritised large cash-transfer and pensions programmes, the National Guard, and state-led energy projects such as the Dos Bocas refinery and the Tren Maya. (Social Infrastructure, Population Health, Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order)
2024–2026 · partner · 2% each The Sheinbaum government is attempting to capture nearshoring investment, expand clean energy and digital infrastructure, and integrate Mexico more deeply into North American supply chains. (Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Energy Technologies, Digital & Services Trade, Technology Adoption & Diffusion)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Scores for frontier technology and security capabilities are especially uncertain because Mexico neither led nor publicly benchmarked those areas in 1996, and much activity is informal or opaque. Governance and integrity indicators rest on imperfect corruption and rule-of-law measures from the period. Mapping real events to the event library requires judgement, particularly for trade tensions and food-price shocks that affected Mexico indirectly rather than as the scenario's severe case.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Mexico played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.67 to a median of 8.21 (−1.45), with 90 per cent of simulations between 8.20 and 8.22 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 49 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 56. Its base income is 251 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 990 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Social Infrastructure (build, 104 credits, 10.5 per cent); Population Health (build, 104 credits, 10.5 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 102 credits, 10.3 per cent); Internal Security & Order (build, 102 credits, 10.3 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (build, 69 credits, 6.9 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 79 per cent, partner 21 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.072, and the most repeated action appeared in 47 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Human Capital; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 7 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −27.2 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.8 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −16.4 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.96; Labour & Employment −3.54; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.40; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.31 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.61 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.45 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (−0.39 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 64 (5th to 95th percentile 64 to 64), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 47; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 592 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.248 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.248 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.791: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.007 and −0.004, for example 2019 build Social Infrastructure (11 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.659 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e4-mex/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 7 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.67 the model ends at 8.21, where the 2026 ratings put it at 10.85. Group scores miss by 2.78 points on average, against 1.31 for assuming nothing changed (skill −1.13); the change in each domain has the right sign in 0 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−4.47); furthest above: human capital (−0.85) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.791	−59.9
No shocks	+2.248	+156.9
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.004	−0.4	2019 build Social Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.007	−0.5	2019 build Population Health (11 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.004	−0.3	2019 build Resource Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	2019 build Energy Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.007	−0.5	2019 build Internal Security & Order (11 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.659	+46.5	2020 S10 (-40.9 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.461	+31.4	2008 S02 (-22.1 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.352	+24.6	2018 S01 (-20.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−20.8
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−16.4
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	10.0	−13.9
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−9.5
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	18.5	−27.3

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	14.15 14.11 to 14.20	+3.54	4.80	132
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	12.20 12.15 to 12.24	+3.31	4.67	102
Population Health	Human Capital	10.58	13.80 13.79 to 13.82	+3.22	4.87	104
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.41	13.58 13.55 to 13.61	+2.17	3.29	63
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	12.93 12.85 to 13.10	+1.39	3.62	104
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.31	6.63 6.61 to 6.66	+1.32	3.26	41
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	12.71 12.66 to 12.75	+1.15	2.09	35
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.65	14.42 14.34 to 14.55	+0.77	2.15	69
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	9.17 9.15 to 9.19	+0.73	1.94	33
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	9.73	10.14 10.11 to 10.17	+0.41	1.73	35
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.80	11.14 11.12 to 11.18	+0.34	1.58	30
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.48	9.70 9.69 to 9.71	+0.22	1.62	30
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.40	11.18 11.06 to 11.32	−0.22	1.26	33
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.03	10.56 10.47 to 10.64	−0.47	1.53	35
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.94 8.88 to 8.99	−0.91	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.61 8.57 to 8.65	−1.07	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.62 7.57 to 7.66	−1.09	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	6.25 6.22 to 6.26	−1.11	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.14	8.03 7.98 to 8.09	−1.11	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	9.24 9.18 to 9.29	−1.13	0.83	11
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.27	8.12 8.11 to 8.14	−1.15	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	7.91 7.88 to 7.95	−1.18	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	10.96 10.85 to 11.08	−1.19	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	7.43	6.23 6.19 to 6.26	−1.20	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.12	6.91 6.84 to 6.99	−1.21	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	8.80	7.58 7.51 to 7.60	−1.22	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.44 4.35 to 4.50	−1.26	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.73	7.45 7.40 to 7.50	−1.28	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	7.20 7.19 to 7.21	−1.30	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	10.10 10.04 to 10.17	−1.34	0.90	11
Space Operations	National Security	5.78	4.41 4.32 to 4.45	−1.37	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	11.90	10.53 10.51 to 10.56	−1.37	2.04	31
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.91	6.44 6.34 to 6.50	−1.47	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.96	10.43 10.36 to 10.51	−1.53	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.29	10.72 10.63 to 10.76	−1.57	0.55	11
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.89	8.31 8.27 to 8.34	−1.58	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.11	8.52 8.36 to 8.63	−1.59	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.43	8.83 8.73 to 8.94	−1.60	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.71	3.96 3.94 to 3.97	−1.75	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	10.18 10.05 to 10.26	−1.77	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	10.75 10.65 to 10.82	−1.78	1.10	20
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	11.26 11.25 to 11.27	−1.80	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.30	9.49 9.46 to 9.51	−1.81	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	9.16 9.14 to 9.19	−1.82	0.95	20
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	9.13 9.07 to 9.19	−1.87	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	2.82 2.80 to 2.84	−1.87	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	1.54 1.52 to 1.56	−1.90	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	3.67 3.63 to 3.73	−1.97	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	2.08 2.04 to 2.12	−1.98	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	4.63 4.54 to 4.70	−2.08	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	12.31	10.19 10.13 to 10.27	−2.12	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	7.39 7.35 to 7.45	−2.13	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	3.27 3.25 to 3.29	−2.17	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	1.99 1.99 to 2.00	−2.19	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.66	9.46 9.41 to 9.49	−2.20	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	8.11	5.84 5.76 to 5.89	−2.27	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.31	8.04 7.99 to 8.09	−2.27	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	6.68 6.65 to 6.73	−2.28	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.21	6.71 6.65 to 6.79	−2.50	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.78	8.24 8.18 to 8.29	−2.54	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.98	9.22 9.11 to 9.31	−2.76	0.90	20
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	8.42 8.34 to 8.47	−2.83	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.61	10.71 10.69 to 10.75	−2.90	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.07 8.04 to 8.08	−2.90	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	8.95 8.85 to 9.04	−3.03	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.73	2.68 2.67 to 2.70	−3.05	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.95	6.83 6.79 to 6.88	−3.12	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	6.77 6.73 to 6.82	−3.16	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	6.72 6.62 to 6.82	−3.17	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	8.59 8.55 to 8.65	−3.33	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.58	4.90 4.87 to 4.95	−3.68	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.06	7.38 7.31 to 7.50	−3.68	0.77	20

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 14.584
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.45 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 49; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.072; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 47% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-mex. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Mexico (MEX)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Legitimacy rupture in year 10, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 13, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 251.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.5 seconds in all; 1082 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.