Simulation 4
Malaysia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 12.22 at the 1996 position, 11.88 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (median simulation), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.88 (−0.35)
- From 12.22
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 27
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.94 −0.281 |
| 1998 |
| 11.98 +0.033 | |
| 1999 |
| 12.03 +0.051 | |
| 2000 |
| 12.09 +0.059 | |
| 2001 |
| 12.15 +0.060 | |
| 2002 |
| 12.21 +0.061 | |
| 2003 |
| 12.27 +0.066 | |
| 2004 |
| 12.32 +0.049 | |
| 2005 |
| 12.37 +0.045 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.41 +0.042 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.44 +0.034 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.27 −0.179 |
| 2009 |
| 12.29 +0.024 | |
| 2010 |
| 12.31 +0.024 | |
| 2011 |
| 12.34 +0.027 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.37 +0.028 | |
| 2013 |
| 12.40 +0.029 | |
| 2014 |
| 12.43 +0.036 | |
| 2015 |
| 12.47 +0.037 | |
| 2016 |
| 12.51 +0.036 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.54 +0.035 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 12.48 −0.058 |
| 2019 |
| 12.42 −0.061 | |
| 2020 |
| Legitimacy ruptureSevere pandemic | 11.76 −0.662 |
| 2021 |
| 11.78 +0.021 | |
| 2022 |
| 11.80 +0.014 | |
| 2023 |
| 11.81 +0.016 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.83 +0.018 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.85 +0.019 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.88 +0.027 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.359 | −94.7 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.615 | +111.9 | +3.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.043 | −2.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.479 | +33.8 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.418 | +28.2 | +0.10 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.322 | +22.6 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 16.23 | +6.38 | +6.94 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.16 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.91 | 16.63 | +3.72 | +4.54 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.02 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.64 | 19.17 | +3.53 | +4.76 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.40 | 12.92 | +2.52 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.72 | 17.09 | +2.37 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 12.90 | 14.98 | +2.08 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 14.55 | 16.23 | +1.68 | +3.96 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.82 | 16.32 | +1.50 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.06 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.12 | 16.57 | +1.45 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.13 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 13.40 | 14.76 | +1.36 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −1.53 | +0.17 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.26 | 13.47 | +1.21 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.24 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.13 | 14.16 | +1.03 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.07 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 16.48 | +0.81 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −2.33 | +0.47 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 14.04 | 14.79 | +0.75 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.42 | 8.13 | +0.71 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.03 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.47 | 14.12 | +0.65 | +1.87 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.42 | 13.97 | +0.55 | +1.13 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.18 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 15.09 | 15.56 | +0.47 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −2.69 | +0.13 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.31 | 15.73 | +0.42 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.33 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 14.69 | 15.09 | +0.40 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.14 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.70 | 12.09 | +0.39 | +1.90 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.03 | 13.38 | +0.35 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.15 | 13.45 | +0.30 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −2.08 | +0.08 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 8.42 | 8.55 | +0.13 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.02 | 15.08 | +0.06 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −1.78 | +0.02 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.42 | 15.09 | −0.33 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.10 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 15.56 | 15.17 | −0.39 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.02 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 10.47 | 10.03 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.30 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.48 | 14.84 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.11 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 12.00 | 11.36 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.11 | 12.43 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.09 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.44 | 11.74 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 12.09 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.10 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.77 | 10.03 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.21 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.10 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 12.08 | 11.29 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.15 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.46 | 11.66 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.08 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 10.49 | 9.69 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.14 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.19 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.16 |
| Air Power | National Security | 9.97 | 9.12 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.19 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.12 | 13.22 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.13 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.86 | 8.96 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.10 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.81 | 12.90 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.18 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 7.49 | 6.48 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.32 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.19 | 13.16 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 10.41 | 9.32 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.06 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.15 | 9.05 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.30 | 9.20 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.06 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.02 | 11.91 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.37 | 5.22 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.45 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.94 | 11.68 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.36 | 7.09 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.73 | 7.46 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.44 | 12.15 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.10 | 8.76 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 3.85 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 6.77 | 5.36 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.10 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 2.12 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.68 | 11.21 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 6.95 | 5.45 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 13.67 | 12.16 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.37 | 7.78 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 12.76 | 11.11 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.25 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.02 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.06 | 11.36 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.11 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.08 | 12.05 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | +0.30 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.09 | 13.99 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.60 | 6.48 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.08 | −0.04 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 10.22 | −2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 13.96 | 11.70 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.12 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 15.09 | 12.80 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.18 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.05 | 10.41 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.62 | −0.02 |
Seed 4 of experiment cycle-002.e4-mys. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.