E4 · cycle-002.e4-nga

Nigeria, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Nigeria decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Debt service reset in year 9, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 13, Outbreak defence succeeds in year 18, Global funding seizure in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.54 (+0.03); From 7.51; 7.54 to 7.55
Rank by index: 73; From 73; 72 to 73
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 49; From 70; 49 to 49

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.51	7.54	7.54	7.55	higher
Rank by index	73	72	73	73	lower
Tier rank	70	49	49	49	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	535.7	540.4	540.8	541.5	higher
Goal-weighted score	535.7	540.4	540.8	541.5	higher
Resilient score	535.7	540.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 88 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 12 per cent of the 1,452 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Nigeria actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 7.51; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 7.43; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 7.54; 7.50 to 7.59
Skill against persistence: −0.55; group error 1.37 against 0.89 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	3.84	3.36	2.98 3.0–3.0	−0.38	right
Strategic Infrastructure	8.33	8.84	10.11 10.1–10.2	+1.27	right
National Security	6.71	6.42	6.32 6.3–6.3	−0.10	right
Human Capital	7.94	6.62	8.05 8.0–8.1	+1.43	wrong
Information & Influence	9.25	9.53	9.41 9.4–9.4	−0.12	wrong
Governance & Integrity	7.34	7.95	9.21 9.2–9.3	+1.26	right
Financial Strength	8.27	8.55	8.43 8.4–8.5	−0.13	wrong
Production & Innovation	7.67	7.46	6.49 6.4–6.5	−0.97	wrong
Trade & Investment	8.27	8.11	6.88 6.8–6.9	−1.23	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2005 · S11 × 0.9 The Paris Club agreement cancelled roughly US$18 billion of Nigerian debt after arrears clearance, releasing fiscal space.
2008 · S06 × 0.6 The global food price spike hit import-dependent urban Nigeria, triggering food price protests and higher food insecurity.
2009 · S03 × 0.8 The Boko Haram insurgency erupted in north-eastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin, displacing millions and disrupting regional trade and agriculture.
2014 · S20 × 0.7 Nigeria's rapid contact tracing and isolation contained Ebola after an imported case in Lagos, limiting the outbreak to a handful of deaths.
2015 · S02 × 0.7 The oil price crash and external financing squeeze pushed Nigeria into a fiscal crisis and recession, straining sovereign balance sheets.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic caused a deep economic contraction and strained Nigeria's weak health system, though mortality was less severe than initially feared.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–1999 · build · 5% each Abacha's military regime concentrated resources on oil revenue, internal security and armed forces, while preparing the Vision 2010 economic blueprint. (Resource Infrastructure, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Internal Security & Order, Information Environment & Strategic Communication, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
1999–2003 · partner · 5% each Obasanjo's return to democracy brought GSM licensing and privatisation, early anti-corruption bodies, and fiscal stabilisation efforts. (Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial System Depth & Access)
2003–2007 · build · 5% each Banking consolidation under Soludo and the pursuit of Paris Club debt relief dominated Obasanjo's second term, alongside oil and gas and power reform ambitions. (Financial Regulation & Integrity, Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks)
2007–2011 · build · 5% each Yar'Adua's Niger Delta amnesty and power sector roadmap sought to reduce militant disruption and improve electricity supply. (Internal Security & Order, Energy Infrastructure, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Resource Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2011–2015 · build · 5% each Jonathan's Agricultural Transformation Agenda and support for the creative and digital sectors expanded food production and global cultural visibility. (Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy, Energy Infrastructure, Foundational Education)
2015–2019 · build · 5% each Buhari's first term prioritised the war against Boko Haram, anti-corruption enforcement, and new rail and road infrastructure. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Internal Security & Order, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Transport Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2019–2023 · build · 5% each Buhari's second term continued rail and road modernisation, advanced the digital economy agenda, and expanded social investment programmes. (Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Population Health, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Resource Infrastructure)
2023–2026 · build · 5% each Tinubu removed fuel subsidies, floated the naira, and pursued tax and investment reforms to stabilise public finances and attract capital. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Resource Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is the precise 1996 capability position because Nigeria was under military rule with weak statistical systems, so several scores rely on qualitative judgement. The mapping of the Boko Haram insurgency to the event library is approximate, as the library has no exact internal conflict event; its regional spillover effects are used as the nearest equivalent. Retrospective policy priorities are reconstructed from public budgets and strategies, but actual resource shares were often opaque and implementation uneven.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Nigeria played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 7.51 to a median of 7.54 (+0.03), with 90 per cent of simulations between 7.53 and 7.55 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 73 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 70. Its base income is 170 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,453 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Resource Infrastructure (build, 158 credits, 10.9 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 138 credits, 9.5 per cent); Internal Security & Order (build, 122 credits, 8.4 per cent); Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (build, 110 credits, 7.5 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 80 credits, 5.5 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 88 per cent, partner 12 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.064, and the most repeated action appeared in 63 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Governance & Integrity; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 2 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.8 points each); S06 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −27.8 points each); S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −15.3 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 60 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.86; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.76; Monetary & Currency Capability −2.15; Labour & Employment −2.08 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.15 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.14 points); Energy Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing (+0.62 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 73 (5th to 95th percentile 72 to 73), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 49; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 541 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.467 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.467 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.253: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.008 and +0.001, for example 2009 build Internal Security & Order (11 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.501 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

same_action (warn): the most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 63% of rounds.

retired_words (warn): e4-nga/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 8) ends +0.02 from it, with 4 shocks and 2 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 7.51 the model ends at 7.54, where the 2026 ratings put it at 7.43. Group scores miss by 1.37 points on average, against 0.89 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.54); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−1.23); furthest above: human capital (+1.43) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.253	−90.4
No shocks	+1.467	+103.3
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.002	−0.1	2009 build Internal Security & Order (11 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	2009 build Energy Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.008	−0.5	2009 build Political Institutions & Civic Participation (11 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	2009 build Resource Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	2009 build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure (11 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.465	+32.8	2020 S10 (-28.8 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.501	+35.5	2008 S06 (-27.8 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.318	+21.7	2015 S02 (-15.3 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−15.3
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	13.0	−14.3
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−27.8
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−28.8
Debt service reset S11	Upside	100 per cent	9.0	+7.4
Outbreak defence succeeds S20	Upside	100 per cent	18.0	+12.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.19	11.39 11.37 to 11.41	+5.20	6.11	138
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	12.97 12.94 to 12.99	+5.11	5.66	122
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.32	14.41 14.39 to 14.44	+5.09	5.78	116
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.09	9.72 9.71 to 9.73	+4.63	5.00	87
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.01	14.04 13.98 to 14.12	+4.03	4.88	158
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	11.19 11.18 to 11.21	+3.79	4.02	81
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.26	12.29 12.24 to 12.34	+3.03	4.12	110
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.46	11.16 11.15 to 11.19	+2.70	3.16	47
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.23	10.79 10.73 to 10.85	+2.56	3.21	71
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	11.00 10.96 to 11.06	+2.14	4.56	112
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.26	11.29 11.25 to 11.38	+2.03	2.72	47
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	10.11	11.99 11.96 to 12.02	+1.88	2.22	71
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.40	11.24 11.16 to 11.38	+1.84	2.00	40
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.38	9.68 9.65 to 9.70	+1.30	2.52	49
Population Health	Human Capital	7.08	8.01 8.00 to 8.03	+0.93	2.05	34
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.35	11.24 11.20 to 11.28	+0.89	2.13	40
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.30	9.13 9.12 to 9.14	+0.83	2.27	35
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.49	8.04 8.03 to 8.05	+0.55	1.58	26
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.76	8.03 7.99 to 8.07	+0.27	0.63	26
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	6.71 6.57 to 6.79	+0.16	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.32	6.40 6.23 to 6.57	+0.08	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.08	8.05 7.97 to 8.20	−0.03	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.70	8.57 8.51 to 8.64	−0.13	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	8.43 8.22 to 8.63	−0.15	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	9.15 9.11 to 9.20	−0.19	1.12	20
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.20	6.96 6.96 to 6.98	−0.24	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.51	7.18 7.14 to 7.21	−0.33	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.86	8.48 8.44 to 8.54	−0.38	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	10.40	10.02 9.93 to 10.07	−0.38	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.33	6.87 6.86 to 6.88	−0.46	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	8.14	7.66 7.64 to 7.69	−0.48	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.41	6.91 6.90 to 6.93	−0.50	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.38	7.81 7.67 to 7.96	−0.57	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	4.83 4.80 to 4.84	−0.63	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.14	8.49 8.46 to 8.51	−0.65	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	5.77	5.10 5.07 to 5.12	−0.67	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.72	8.05 7.97 to 8.10	−0.67	1.02	26
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.28	10.59 10.55 to 10.63	−0.69	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.34	5.63 5.59 to 5.67	−0.71	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	3.30 3.28 to 3.32	−0.74	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.76	8.02 7.99 to 8.05	−0.74	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	10.45 10.42 to 10.47	−0.77	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	3.06 3.05 to 3.07	−0.79	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	9.81 9.75 to 9.86	−0.80	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	2.64 2.63 to 2.64	−0.80	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.98	3.17 3.13 to 3.19	−0.81	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	0.57 0.56 to 0.57	−0.82	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.90	7.07 7.04 to 7.10	−0.83	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	5.54	4.71 4.69 to 4.73	−0.83	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.59 4.50 to 4.63	−0.84	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.95	2.11 2.10 to 2.12	−0.84	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.34	6.49 6.41 to 6.59	−0.85	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	3.10 3.09 to 3.13	−0.85	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.59	8.73 8.73 to 8.73	−0.86	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.81	1.93 1.91 to 1.95	−0.88	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.31	4.41 4.38 to 4.47	−0.90	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.71 6.66 to 6.75	−0.90	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	7.25 7.14 to 7.36	−0.96	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.51	3.50 3.46 to 3.54	−1.01	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	7.70	6.66 6.64 to 6.68	−1.04	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.11 4.11 to 4.12	−1.09	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	5.47 5.45 to 5.48	−1.20	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.24	5.98 5.94 to 6.03	−1.26	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.71	6.45 6.40 to 6.47	−1.26	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	6.83 6.77 to 6.88	−1.39	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.14	6.71 6.67 to 6.75	−1.43	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.25	6.71 6.69 to 6.76	−1.54	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.93	5.36 5.33 to 5.40	−1.57	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	5.96 5.92 to 6.00	−1.63	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.44	7.69 7.62 to 7.75	−1.75	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	7.68	5.74 5.71 to 5.76	−1.94	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.14	6.04 6.00 to 6.12	−2.10	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.1e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 14.450
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.2e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.61 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 73; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.064; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.resource_infrastructure
warnsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 63% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-nga. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Nigeria (NGA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Debt service reset in year 9, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 13, Outbreak defence succeeds in year 18, Global funding seizure in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 170 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.3 seconds in all; 1108 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.