Scripted
Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
How it decides
Plays a plan of periods, each a set of groups, a mode and a chunk of income, round by round. In the backcast the plan is the nation's reconstructed pathway from 1996, period by period, each with its reason.
Replay, the same idea at the level of single actions, plays back a recorded simulation for the probes; it is internal and has no page.
- scripted_history
- the plan for this period
What it is for. Experiments against history, and fixed plans to compare against the methods that decide for themselves.
Its experiments
Every experiment that used the method: the capability index at the position and the median at the horizon across its simulations.
| Experiment | Cycle | Simulations | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-kor | 3 | 30 | 13.13 → 12.72 (−0.40) |
| Estonia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-est | 3 | 30 | 10.47 → 10.01 (−0.46) |
| Singapore, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-sgp | 3 | 30 | 15.25 → 15.24 (−0.01) |
| Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-irl | 3 | 30 | 11.93 → 11.84 (−0.09) |
| United Arab Emirates, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-are | 3 | 30 | 9.78 → 9.76 (−0.02) |
| Chile, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-chl | 3 | 30 | 10.29 → 9.72 (−0.57) |
| Poland, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-pol | 3 | 30 | 9.92 → 9.79 (−0.13) |
| China, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-chn | 3 | 30 | 9.13 → 6.93 (−2.20) |
| India, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-ind | 3 | 30 | 8.92 → 7.33 (−1.59) |
| Vietnam, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-vnm | 3 | 30 | 7.67 → 8.03 (+0.36) |
| Taiwan, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-twn | 3 | 30 | 14.85 → 14.71 (−0.14) |
| Israel, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-isr | 3 | 30 | 15.14 → 15.80 (+0.66) |
| Finland, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-fin | 3 | 30 | 15.66 → 15.48 (−0.18) |
| Malaysia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-mys | 3 | 30 | 12.22 → 12.10 (−0.13) |
| Indonesia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-idn | 3 | 30 | 8.28 → 7.29 (−0.98) |
| Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-bra | 3 | 30 | 11.43 → 11.55 (+0.13) |
| Mexico, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-mex | 3 | 30 | 9.67 → 8.59 (−1.07) |
| Türkiye, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-tur | 3 | 30 | 10.83 → 8.23 (−2.60) |
| Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-rus | 3 | 30 | 11.19 → 11.32 (+0.14) |
| South Africa, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-zaf | 3 | 30 | 11.66 → 11.80 (+0.15) |
| Nigeria, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-nga | 3 | 30 | 7.51 → 7.87 (+0.36) |
| Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-ken | 3 | 30 | 7.31 → 5.61 (−1.71) |
| Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-eth | 3 | 30 | 5.96 → 4.31 (−1.65) |
| Rwanda, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-rwa | 3 | 30 | 5.13 → 4.54 (−0.59) |
| Bangladesh, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-bgd | 3 | 30 | 6.47 → 5.38 (−1.09) |
| Philippines, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-phl | 3 | 30 | 9.40 → 8.17 (−1.23) |
| Thailand, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-tha | 3 | 30 | 10.39 → 9.89 (−0.50) |
| Saudi Arabia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-sau | 3 | 30 | 11.02 → 11.18 (+0.15) |
| Qatar, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-qat | 3 | 30 | 9.65 → 9.63 (−0.02) |
| Egypt, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-egy | 3 | 30 | 10.81 → 10.06 (−0.74) |
| Argentina, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-arg | 3 | 30 | 10.76 → 9.72 (−1.04) |
| Venezuela, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-ven | 3 | 30 | 10.19 → 8.38 (−1.80) |
| Colombia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-col | 3 | 30 | 9.85 → 8.99 (−0.86) |
| Peru, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-per | 3 | 30 | 8.94 → 7.17 (−1.78) |
| Japan, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-jpn | 3 | 30 | 16.49 → 17.05 (+0.56) |
| Germany, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-deu | 3 | 30 | 16.98 → 17.51 (+0.53) |
| United Kingdom, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-gbr | 3 | 30 | 17.25 → 17.52 (+0.27) |
| United States, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-usa | 3 | 30 | 19.15 → 18.36 (−0.79) |
| Italy, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-ita | 3 | 30 | 14.51 → 13.95 (−0.55) |
| Greece, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-grc | 3 | 30 | 12.10 → 12.18 (+0.08) |
| Czechia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-cze | 3 | 30 | 11.89 → 11.61 (−0.28) |
| Hungary, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-hun | 3 | 30 | 10.85 → 10.94 (+0.09) |
| Lithuania, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-ltu | 3 | 30 | 8.78 → 8.00 (−0.79) |
| Ukraine, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-ukr | 3 | 30 | 9.65 → 6.88 (−2.77) |
| Kazakhstan, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-kaz | 3 | 30 | 7.45 → 7.11 (−0.33) |
| Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-geo | 3 | 30 | 6.45 → 4.81 (−1.64) |
| Norway, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-nor | 3 | 30 | 16.23 → 16.71 (+0.48) |
| Botswana, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-bwa | 3 | 30 | 9.60 → 9.27 (−0.32) |
| Zimbabwe, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-zwe | 3 | 30 | 7.22 → 4.51 (−2.71) |
| Sri Lanka, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-003.e4-lka | 3 | 30 | 8.11 → 7.17 (−0.95) |
| South Korea, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-kor | 2 | 30 | 13.13 → 12.81 (−0.31) |
| Estonia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-est | 2 | 30 | 10.47 → 9.74 (−0.72) |
| Singapore, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-sgp | 2 | 30 | 15.25 → 15.34 (+0.09) |
| Ireland, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-irl | 2 | 30 | 11.93 → 12.10 (+0.17) |
| United Arab Emirates, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-are | 2 | 30 | 9.78 → 9.77 (−0.01) |
| Chile, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-chl | 2 | 30 | 10.29 → 9.36 (−0.93) |
| Poland, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-pol | 2 | 30 | 9.92 → 9.54 (−0.37) |
| China, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-chn | 2 | 30 | 9.13 → 5.49 (−3.63) |
| India, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-ind | 2 | 30 | 8.92 → 5.92 (−3.00) |
| Vietnam, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-vnm | 2 | 30 | 7.67 → 7.62 (−0.05) |
| Taiwan, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-twn | 2 | 30 | 14.85 → 14.99 (+0.13) |
| Israel, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-isr | 2 | 30 | 15.14 → 16.01 (+0.87) |
| Finland, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-fin | 2 | 30 | 15.66 → 15.42 (−0.24) |
| Malaysia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-mys | 2 | 30 | 12.22 → 11.88 (−0.34) |
| Indonesia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-idn | 2 | 30 | 8.28 → 6.29 (−1.99) |
| Brazil, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-bra | 2 | 30 | 11.43 → 11.78 (+0.36) |
| Mexico, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-mex | 2 | 30 | 9.67 → 8.21 (−1.45) |
| Türkiye, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-tur | 2 | 30 | 10.83 → 7.26 (−3.57) |
| Russia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-rus | 2 | 30 | 11.19 → 11.13 (−0.06) |
| South Africa, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-zaf | 2 | 30 | 11.66 → 11.68 (+0.02) |
| Nigeria, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-nga | 2 | 30 | 7.51 → 7.54 (+0.03) |
| Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-ken | 2 | 30 | 7.31 → 4.18 (−3.14) |
| Ethiopia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-eth | 2 | 30 | 5.96 → 1.74 (−4.22) |
| Rwanda, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-rwa | 2 | 30 | 5.13 → 3.50 (−1.64) |
| Bangladesh, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-bgd | 2 | 30 | 6.47 → 4.17 (−2.30) |
| Philippines, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-phl | 2 | 30 | 9.40 → 7.76 (−1.64) |
| Thailand, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-tha | 2 | 30 | 10.39 → 9.66 (−0.73) |
| Saudi Arabia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-sau | 2 | 30 | 11.02 → 11.24 (+0.21) |
| Qatar, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-qat | 2 | 30 | 9.65 → 9.51 (−0.15) |
| Egypt, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-egy | 2 | 30 | 10.81 → 9.74 (−1.07) |
| Argentina, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-arg | 2 | 30 | 10.76 → 9.36 (−1.40) |
| Venezuela, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-ven | 2 | 30 | 10.19 → 7.75 (−2.43) |
| Colombia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-col | 2 | 30 | 9.85 → 8.75 (−1.10) |
| Peru, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-per | 2 | 30 | 8.94 → 6.34 (−2.61) |
| Japan, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-jpn | 2 | 30 | 16.49 → 17.08 (+0.60) |
| Germany, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-deu | 2 | 30 | 16.98 → 17.58 (+0.60) |
| United Kingdom, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-gbr | 2 | 30 | 17.25 → 17.50 (+0.25) |
| United States, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-usa | 2 | 30 | 19.15 → 18.36 (−0.79) |
| Italy, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-ita | 2 | 30 | 14.51 → 14.55 (+0.04) |
| Greece, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-grc | 2 | 30 | 12.10 → 12.32 (+0.23) |
| Czechia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-cze | 2 | 30 | 11.89 → 11.76 (−0.13) |
| Hungary, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-hun | 2 | 30 | 10.85 → 11.04 (+0.19) |
| Lithuania, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-ltu | 2 | 30 | 8.78 → 7.47 (−1.31) |
| Ukraine, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-ukr | 2 | 30 | 9.65 → 4.93 (−4.72) |
| Kazakhstan, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-kaz | 2 | 30 | 7.45 → 6.48 (−0.97) |
| Georgia, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-geo | 2 | 30 | 6.45 → 2.53 (−3.92) |
| Norway, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-nor | 2 | 30 | 16.23 → 16.67 (+0.44) |
| Botswana, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-bwa | 2 | 30 | 9.60 → 8.84 (−0.76) |
| Zimbabwe, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-zwe | 2 | 30 | 7.22 → 1.18 (−6.03) |
| Sri Lanka, scripted, 30 years from 1996 cycle-002.e4-lka | 2 | 30 | 8.11 → 6.54 (−1.58) |
| South Korea, scripted, 30 years from 1996 mcts-m7.m7-kor-scripted-history | – | 10 | 13.13 → 12.72 (−0.40) |