Simulation 1
Norway, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 16.23 at the 1996 position, 16.67 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 19 (median simulation), 6 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 16.67 (+0.44)
- From 16.23
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 7
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 16.25 +0.013 | |
| 1998 |
| 16.27 +0.025 | |
| 1999 |
| 16.30 +0.028 | |
| 2000 |
| 16.33 +0.029 | |
| 2001 |
| 16.35 +0.018 | |
| 2002 |
| 16.37 +0.024 | |
| 2003 |
| 16.41 +0.038 | |
| 2004 |
| 16.45 +0.040 | |
| 2005 |
| 16.48 +0.036 | |
| 2006 |
| 16.52 +0.033 | |
| 2007 |
| 16.54 +0.021 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.49 −0.047 |
| 2009 |
| 16.51 +0.018 | |
| 2010 |
| 16.54 +0.031 | |
| 2011 |
| 16.58 +0.041 | |
| 2012 |
| 16.61 +0.032 | |
| 2013 |
| 16.64 +0.026 | |
| 2014 |
| 16.65 +0.009 | |
| 2015 |
| 16.66 +0.010 | |
| 2016 |
| 16.68 +0.017 | |
| 2017 |
| 16.70 +0.024 | |
| 2018 |
| 16.72 +0.025 | |
| 2019 |
| 16.75 +0.023 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 16.59 −0.151 |
| 2021 |
| 16.61 +0.019 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.59 −0.024 |
| 2023 |
| 16.61 +0.023 | |
| 2024 |
| 16.63 +0.022 | |
| 2025 |
| 16.65 +0.020 | |
| 2026 |
| 16.67 +0.016 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.809 | −61.2 | −2.00 |
| No shocks | +0.290 | +20.2 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.186 | +13.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.060 | +4.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.047 | +3.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.16 | 19.39 | +8.23 | +8.39 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.08 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 11.68 | 18.18 | +6.50 | +6.60 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.35 | 19.85 | +3.50 | +4.56 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 16.31 | 19.79 | +3.48 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 16.74 | 19.91 | +3.17 | +3.58 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.75 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 16.78 | 19.68 | +2.90 | +4.02 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.46 | 20.00 | +2.54 | +2.76 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.23 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.25 | 15.70 | +2.45 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.71 | +2.38 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.28 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.84 | 19.99 | +2.15 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.96 | 20.00 | +2.04 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.51 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 17.81 | 19.76 | +1.95 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.06 | 19.82 | +1.76 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 18.41 | 19.99 | +1.58 | +4.38 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 17.47 | 18.37 | +0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.15 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 19.14 | 19.86 | +0.72 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.17 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.12 | 19.74 | +0.62 | +1.31 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 19.54 | 20.00 | +0.46 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.05 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 19.13 | 19.33 | +0.20 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 11.66 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.24 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.00 | 14.99 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.26 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.52 | 14.49 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.16 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.82 | 15.78 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.42 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 6.97 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.24 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 17.03 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.26 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 19.25 | 19.14 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 19.12 | 18.99 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.24 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.33 | 9.19 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.40 | 12.26 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.02 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 19.83 | 19.67 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.03 | 17.87 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.11 | 16.95 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 19.38 | 19.22 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 19.02 | 18.86 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.15 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 19.43 | 19.26 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 17.97 | 17.80 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 19.60 | 19.43 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.28 | 13.10 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 17.38 | 17.20 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 18.18 | 18.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 19.05 | 18.87 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.81 | 15.63 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.15 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.47 | 16.28 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 17.93 | 17.74 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.10 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 18.07 | 17.88 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.21 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 15.23 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 9.36 | 9.16 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.16 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 16.01 | 15.81 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.07 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.15 | 15.93 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.86 | 15.63 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.24 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 11.57 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 19.76 | −0.24 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 5.62 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.67 | 11.43 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.48 | 19.24 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.75 | −0.25 | +2.78 | 0.00 | −0.24 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 8.68 | 8.42 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.02 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.99 | 17.72 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.05 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 10.46 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.30 | 11.01 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 19.72 | 19.42 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.42 | 17.12 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.92 | 12.62 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 15.31 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.99 | 14.62 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 18.08 | 17.67 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 19.11 | 18.70 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.48 | 17.06 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 16.64 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 16.61 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 19.32 | 18.70 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.31 | 17.61 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.03 |
Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-nor. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.