Simulation 3
Singapore, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 15.25 at the 1996 position, 15.34 in 2026; 139 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 26 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 12 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 15.34 (+0.09)
- From 15.25
- Rank by index
- 9
- From 10
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 6
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.15 −0.098 |
| 1998 |
| 15.20 +0.046 | |
| 1999 |
| 15.25 +0.053 | |
| 2000 |
| 15.38 +0.128 | |
| 2001 |
| 15.47 +0.093 | |
| 2002 |
| 15.51 +0.040 | |
| 2003 |
| Severe pandemic | 15.34 −0.175 |
| 2004 |
| 15.38 +0.046 | |
| 2005 |
| 15.40 +0.020 | |
| 2006 |
| 15.40 +0.003 | |
| 2007 |
| 15.43 +0.021 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.33 −0.099 |
| 2009 |
| 15.37 +0.047 | |
| 2010 |
| 15.38 +0.006 | |
| 2011 |
| 15.38 +0.003 | |
| 2012 |
| 15.41 +0.027 | |
| 2013 |
| 15.46 +0.046 | |
| 2014 |
| 15.52 +0.061 | |
| 2015 |
| 15.53 +0.012 | |
| 2016 |
| 15.54 +0.009 | |
| 2017 |
| 15.55 +0.017 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 15.53 −0.025 |
| 2019 |
| 15.50 −0.033 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 15.15 −0.342 |
| 2021 |
| 15.18 +0.022 | |
| 2022 |
| 15.22 +0.040 | |
| 2023 |
| 15.27 +0.052 | |
| 2024 |
| 15.30 +0.031 | |
| 2025 |
| 15.32 +0.018 | |
| 2026 |
| 15.34 +0.023 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.236 | −97.4 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +0.735 | +48.0 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.249 | +15.8 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.161 | +11.1 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.157 | +10.5 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 12.06 | 20.00 | +7.94 | +8.46 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.90 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 12.43 | 20.00 | +7.57 | +9.59 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.45 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 13.61 | 19.66 | +6.05 | +10.31 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.35 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 13.00 | +5.97 | +6.22 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.75 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.23 | 19.73 | +5.50 | +8.52 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.64 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 15.15 | 19.80 | +4.65 | +12.34 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 15.83 | 19.71 | +3.88 | +7.72 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +1.60 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.11 | 19.99 | +3.88 | +10.55 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.14 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 16.32 | 19.80 | +3.48 | +10.14 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.18 | 19.56 | +3.38 | +9.98 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.17 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 16.79 | 20.00 | +3.21 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.55 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.41 | 19.56 | +3.15 | +4.17 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.08 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.37 | 19.98 | +2.61 | +11.24 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.72 | 20.00 | +1.28 | +5.87 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.35 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.85 | 19.69 | +0.84 | +1.76 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.26 |
| Air Power | National Security | 13.73 | 14.53 | +0.80 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 18.82 | 19.50 | +0.68 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 13.35 | +0.53 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 19.11 | 19.22 | +0.11 | +4.47 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.06 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.86 | 12.78 | −0.08 | +0.03 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.74 | 15.62 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.91 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 12.57 | 12.29 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 11.06 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 12.00 | 11.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 19.67 | 19.20 | −0.47 | +4.36 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 9.55 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.05 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.41 | 17.93 | −0.48 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.06 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.64 | 13.14 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.12 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.75 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.05 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 14.36 | 13.78 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.91 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 18.24 | 17.64 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.37 | 13.76 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.04 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 17.84 | 17.23 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.10 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.50 | 14.88 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.12 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.78 | 5.16 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.18 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 18.05 | 17.43 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.11 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.11 | 13.46 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.14 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.79 | 14.14 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.14 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.52 | 8.86 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.30 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.50 | 16.82 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.17 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 11.60 | 10.91 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.26 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.92 | 18.22 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.22 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 9.87 | 9.16 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.30 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.90 | 10.14 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.53 | 17.77 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.12 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 10.08 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 15.46 | 14.56 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.18 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.36 | 9.43 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 19.07 | 18.14 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.53 | 15.59 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.69 | 15.75 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.14 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 15.46 | 14.47 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.83 | 15.82 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.28 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 18.13 | 17.12 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.17 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 2.51 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.80 | 15.78 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.04 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.96 | 14.81 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.06 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 17.39 | 16.24 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.13 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 15.92 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.13 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.10 | 15.84 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.56 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.15 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 15.82 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.03 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 18.76 | 17.33 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.45 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.64 | 16.14 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.07 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 19.29 | 17.78 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | +0.09 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 17.08 | 15.56 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.37 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 19.97 | 18.44 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.14 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 10.60 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.73 | 16.17 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 18.49 | 16.83 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 19.81 | 17.90 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.12 |
Seed 3 of experiment cycle-002.e4-sgp. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.