Simulation 20
United States, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 20: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 19.15 at the 1996 position, 18.36 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 20
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 4 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 18.36 (−0.79)
- From 19.15
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 1
- Domains at Tier 1
- 9
- From 9
- Events
- 8 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 19.15 +0.002 | |
| 1998 |
| 19.15 +0.005 | |
| 1999 |
| 19.16 +0.002 | |
| 2000 |
| Global funding seizure | 19.09 −0.069 |
| 2001 |
| Regional war spillover | 19.04 −0.046 |
| 2002 |
| 19.05 +0.011 | |
| 2003 |
| 19.07 +0.016 | |
| 2004 |
| 19.08 +0.011 | |
| 2005 |
| Core disaster | 18.92 −0.160 |
| 2006 |
| 18.91 −0.004 | |
| 2007 |
| 18.91 −0.006 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 18.70 −0.208 |
| 2009 |
| 18.70 +0.001 | |
| 2010 |
| 18.71 +0.007 | |
| 2011 |
| 18.73 +0.016 | |
| 2012 |
| 18.73 +0.005 | |
| 2013 |
| 18.74 +0.006 | |
| 2014 |
| 18.74 −0.002 | |
| 2015 |
| 18.73 −0.002 | |
| 2016 |
| 18.73 0.000 | |
| 2017 |
| 18.74 +0.010 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 18.73 −0.017 |
| 2019 |
| 18.70 −0.022 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 18.41 −0.298 |
| 2021 |
| Hybrid coercionLegitimacy rupture | 18.32 −0.085 |
| 2022 |
| 18.34 +0.013 | |
| 2023 |
| 18.35 +0.014 | |
| 2024 |
| 18.35 +0.005 | |
| 2025 |
| 18.36 +0.002 | |
| 2026 |
| 18.36 0.000 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.415 | −31.6 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.942 | +64.3 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.285 | +19.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.217 | +14.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.174 | +12.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.46 | 19.70 | +3.24 | +10.65 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.07 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 17.45 | 20.00 | +2.55 | +7.08 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.10 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.76 | 19.98 | +2.22 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.13 | 20.00 | +1.87 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.19 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 19.54 | 20.00 | +0.46 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.12 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 19.92 | 19.95 | +0.03 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.15 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.08 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 20.00 | 19.97 | −0.03 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.09 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.95 | −0.05 | +1.14 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.16 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 19.92 | −0.08 | +4.47 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.15 |
| Land Power | National Security | 20.00 | 19.70 | −0.30 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 20.00 | 19.67 | −0.33 | +4.78 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 20.00 | 19.64 | −0.36 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.11 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 20.00 | 19.63 | −0.37 | +5.91 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.63 | −0.37 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 19.55 | −0.45 | +3.64 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.54 | −0.46 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.06 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.15 | 16.68 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 20.00 | 19.49 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 20.00 | 19.44 | −0.56 | +1.76 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.12 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 17.50 | 16.89 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.07 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.37 | −0.63 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.05 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.97 | 15.34 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 19.57 | 18.93 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.11 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 20.00 | 19.35 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.12 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 18.24 | 17.57 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 19.05 | 18.37 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 17.74 | 17.03 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.06 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.56 | 15.85 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 20.00 | 19.29 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 15.48 | 14.75 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.26 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 17.72 | 16.98 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.12 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.08 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.18 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.14 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.10 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.16 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.62 | 14.74 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.67 | 18.78 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.16 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 16.91 | 15.98 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.67 | 18.73 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.22 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.02 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.09 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.76 | 16.77 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 18.97 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.05 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.31 | 16.25 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.13 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 18.91 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.08 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.04 | 15.91 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.06 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 18.87 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.22 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 18.83 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.83 | −1.17 | +2.37 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.11 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 18.78 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.33 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 18.10 | 16.87 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.08 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 18.77 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.12 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 18.73 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.16 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 19.63 | 18.33 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.19 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.59 | 16.24 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.24 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 18.65 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.24 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 18.59 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 19.49 | 18.01 | −1.48 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.33 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 19.11 | 17.56 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.05 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 18.93 | 17.35 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.15 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.40 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.37 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.17 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 19.21 | 17.55 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.17 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 18.27 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.05 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 18.07 | 16.33 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.24 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 18.24 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.09 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.13 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 18.87 | 16.87 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.20 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.68 | 16.59 | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.06 |
Seed 20 of experiment cycle-002.e4-usa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.