Simulation 5
Vietnam, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 5: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.67 at the 1996 position, 7.62 in 2026; 126 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 5
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 16 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 8 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 7.62 (−0.05)
- From 7.67
- Rank by index
- 71
- From 71
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.47 −0.197 |
| 1998 |
| 7.52 +0.051 | |
| 1999 |
| 7.57 +0.048 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.62 +0.046 | |
| 2001 |
| Market access opening | 7.73 +0.117 |
| 2002 |
| 7.84 +0.109 | |
| 2003 |
| 7.95 +0.105 | |
| 2004 |
| 7.98 +0.032 | |
| 2005 |
| 8.01 +0.031 | |
| 2006 |
| 8.04 +0.032 | |
| 2007 |
| Market access opening | 8.17 +0.125 |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.95 −0.216 |
| 2009 |
| 8.06 +0.114 | |
| 2010 |
| 8.09 +0.022 | |
| 2011 |
| 8.11 +0.024 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.13 +0.022 | |
| 2013 |
| 8.15 +0.022 | |
| 2014 |
| 8.18 +0.026 | |
| 2015 |
| 8.21 +0.027 | |
| 2016 |
| Core disaster | 8.08 −0.124 |
| 2017 |
| 8.11 +0.022 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.12 +0.019 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.14 +0.019 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.76 −0.384 |
| 2021 |
| 7.79 +0.025 | |
| 2022 |
| 7.81 +0.026 | |
| 2023 |
| 7.83 +0.024 | |
| 2024 |
| Core disaster | 7.60 −0.235 |
| 2025 |
| 7.61 +0.008 | |
| 2026 |
| 7.62 +0.009 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.021 | −70.5 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.798 | +125.2 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.046 | −3.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.003 | +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.470 | +33.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.487 | +33.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.269 | +18.8 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.34 | 15.97 | +6.63 | +7.33 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.48 | 6.92 | +3.44 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −0.49 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 8.89 | 11.98 | +3.09 | +4.73 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.07 | 12.02 | +2.95 | +3.77 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.41 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.36 | 10.30 | +2.94 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.16 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.77 | 10.68 | +2.91 | +3.82 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.61 | 12.08 | +2.47 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.06 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.77 | 11.09 | +2.32 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.23 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 13.00 | +2.03 | +2.43 | 0.00 | −0.41 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 8.52 | 10.50 | +1.98 | +3.31 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.12 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.05 | 10.57 | +1.52 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.24 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.59 | 8.01 | +1.42 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.13 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.28 | 11.08 | +0.80 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.31 | 9.00 | +0.69 | +2.79 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.07 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 8.57 | 9.10 | +0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.20 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.75 | 10.10 | +0.35 | +1.47 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.72 | 9.03 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.31 | 0.00 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.20 | 3.41 | +0.21 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.51 | 2.68 | +0.17 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.62 | 8.79 | +0.17 | +0.45 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 5.53 | +0.10 | +0.70 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.06 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.34 | 6.40 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.56 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.08 | 8.00 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.20 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.72 | 7.62 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.19 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.98 | 8.84 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.26 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.73 | 7.50 | −0.23 | +0.01 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.32 | 9.09 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 7.97 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.78 | 6.49 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.07 | 7.78 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.51 | 10.20 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.06 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 6.70 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.92 | 9.59 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 6.22 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 10.37 | 9.89 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 4.97 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.57 | 11.07 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.14 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.68 | 11.17 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.69 | 7.18 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 5.54 | 5.01 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.65 | 8.10 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.05 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.88 | 6.32 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.85 | 3.29 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.34 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.01 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 10.89 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.11 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.55 | 0.96 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | 0.00 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.39 | 2.79 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.18 | 8.57 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.05 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.82 | 8.21 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.40 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.18 | 1.55 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.98 | 3.31 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.15 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 5.01 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.18 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.20 | 8.48 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.62 | 6.90 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 7.45 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.02 | 8.20 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.07 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.86 | 7.98 | −0.88 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −2.87 | −0.24 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 8.65 | 7.77 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.13 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.90 | 7.00 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 5.62 | 4.71 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.12 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.20 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.67 | 5.60 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 8.93 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.07 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 8.15 | 7.03 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 6.51 | 5.26 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.45 | 5.14 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.16 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.63 | 6.30 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.22 | 6.65 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.16 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.38 | 6.26 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.57 | 6.35 | −2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 7.67 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.13 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.30 | 5.66 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.68 | +0.04 |
Seed 5 of experiment cycle-002.e4-vnm. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.