A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-chl

Simulation 6

Chile, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 6: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.29 at the 1996 position, 9.71 in 2026; 116 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 6

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (median simulation), 14 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 9.71 (−0.58); From 10.29
Rank by index: 48; From 44
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Foundational Education 17 Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 17		10.30 +0.011
1998	Build Foundational Education 17 Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 17	Global funding seizure	10.22 −0.083
1999	Build Foundational Education 17 Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 17		10.24 +0.024
2000	Build Foundational Education 17 Build Transport Infrastructure 17 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 17		10.27 +0.027
2001	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 17 Partner Health System Capability 17 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 17		10.31 +0.044
2002	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 17 Partner Health System Capability 17 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 17		10.37 +0.054
2003	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 17 Partner Health System Capability 17 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 17		10.42 +0.050
2004	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 17 Partner Health System Capability 17 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 17		10.46 +0.041
2005	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 17 Partner Health System Capability 17 Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 17 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 17		10.49 +0.034
2006	Build Advanced Education 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Early Childhood Development 17 Build Financial System Depth & Access 17		10.52 +0.031
2007	Build Advanced Education 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Early Childhood Development 17 Build Financial System Depth & Access 17		10.55 +0.031
2008	Build Advanced Education 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Early Childhood Development 17 Build Financial System Depth & Access 17	Global funding seizure	10.41 −0.143
2009	Build Advanced Education 17 Build Energy Infrastructure 17 Build Early Childhood Development 17 Build Financial System Depth & Access 17		10.45 +0.040
2010	Build Advanced Education 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Early Childhood Development 16 Build Financial System Depth & Access 16	Core disaster	10.11 −0.345
2011	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Foundational Education 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16		10.15 +0.041
2012	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Foundational Education 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16		10.18 +0.037
2013	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Foundational Education 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16		10.22 +0.038
2014	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Foundational Education 16 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 16		10.26 +0.038
2015	Build Advanced Education 16 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16		10.30 +0.037
2016	Build Advanced Education 16 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16		10.34 +0.037
2017	Build Advanced Education 16 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16		10.37 +0.036
2018	Build Advanced Education 16 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16	Trade bloc rupture	10.36 −0.009
2019	Build Internal Security & Order 16 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 16 Build Health System Capability 16 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16	Legitimacy rupture	10.03 −0.330
2020	Build Internal Security & Order 15 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 15 Build Health System Capability 15 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 15	Severe pandemic	9.57 −0.458
2021	Build Internal Security & Order 14 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 14 Build Health System Capability 14 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14		9.60 +0.022
2022	Build Resource Infrastructure 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Internal Security & Order 16		9.61 +0.019
2023	Build Resource Infrastructure 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Internal Security & Order 16		9.64 +0.021
2024	Build Resource Infrastructure 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Internal Security & Order 16		9.66 +0.020
2025	Build Resource Infrastructure 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Internal Security & Order 16		9.68 +0.026
2026	Build Resource Infrastructure 16 Build Energy Infrastructure 16 Build Social Infrastructure 16 Build Internal Security & Order 16		9.71 +0.027

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Governance & Integrity	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5
Financial Strength	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Production & Innovation	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	9	9	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Trade & Investment	7	7	6	6	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.364	−99.5	−1.00
No shocks	+1.714	+116.9	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.010	−0.9	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.496	+34.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.464	+32.6	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.366	+25.4	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.50	19.39	+7.89	+8.05	−0.87	+0.71
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	17.69	+7.88	+9.37	−1.49	+0.01
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.04	18.09	+6.05	+7.05	−1.12	+0.12
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.73	17.89	+4.16	+6.71	−2.11	−0.17
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.60	16.50	+3.90	+4.81	−0.90	−0.02
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.31	15.44	+3.13	+5.19	−1.93	−0.14
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	15.50	+3.08	+4.69	−1.48	−0.13
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	15.02	+2.34	+3.81	−1.32	−0.14
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.80	13.82	+2.02	+3.55	−1.68	+0.15
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.67	15.40	+1.73	+2.94	−1.18	−0.03
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.10	14.70	+1.60	+2.77	−1.23	+0.06
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	12.92	+1.13	+2.71	−1.49	−0.10
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	14.24	+0.58	+3.32	−2.67	−0.06
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.11	14.48	+0.37	+1.90	−1.17	−0.35
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	14.14	+0.13	+3.39	−3.19	−0.07
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	12.36	+0.06	+2.40	−2.13	−0.20
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.01
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	1.18	−0.21	0.00	−0.20	−0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.37	2.04	−0.33	0.00	−0.30	−0.03
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	9.07	−0.33	0.00	−1.01	+0.68
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.52	−0.38	0.00	−0.37	−0.02
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	8.88	−0.41	0.00	−0.99	+0.59
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	3.26	−0.47	0.00	−0.56	+0.09
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	3.51	−0.55	0.00	−0.51	−0.05
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.52	3.85	−0.67	0.00	−0.56	−0.11
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.91	−0.67	0.00	−0.55	−0.12
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	9.64	−0.69	0.00	−1.07	+0.38
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	4.18	−0.73	0.00	−0.69	−0.05
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.73	14.00	−0.73	+3.50	−3.73	−0.51
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.68	−0.75	0.00	−0.66	−0.09
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.94	−0.76	0.00	−0.68	−0.08
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	5.49	−0.78	0.00	−0.76	−0.03
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.34	5.51	−0.83	0.00	−0.75	−0.08
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	5.56	−0.88	0.00	−0.78	−0.10
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	7.05	−0.98	0.00	−1.34	+0.36
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	9.17	−1.00	0.00	−1.20	+0.20
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.67	−1.04	0.00	−1.00	−0.04
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	8.81	−1.12	0.00	−1.02	−0.10
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.45	−1.18	0.00	−1.09	−0.09
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	5.42	−1.19	0.00	−1.09	−0.11
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.47	−1.21	0.00	−1.40	+0.19
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.81	11.57	−1.24	0.00	−1.19	−0.05
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	11.97	10.72	−1.25	0.00	−1.34	+0.09
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	7.16	−1.27	0.00	−1.38	+0.11
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.02	10.75	−1.27	0.00	−1.34	+0.08
Air Power	National Security	9.64	8.37	−1.27	0.00	−1.08	−0.19
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	13.06	11.78	−1.28	0.00	−1.07	−0.21
Maritime Power	National Security	11.61	10.30	−1.31	0.00	−1.14	−0.17
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	5.47	−1.32	0.00	−1.31	−0.01
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.27	12.88	−1.39	0.00	−1.17	−0.22
Land Power	National Security	10.40	9.01	−1.39	0.00	−1.15	−0.24
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.20	−1.44	0.00	−1.34	−0.10
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.35	−1.61	0.00	−1.57	−0.04
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.28	9.60	−1.68	0.00	−1.64	−0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.96	−1.79	0.00	−1.56	−0.23
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	11.53	−1.80	0.00	−1.63	−0.17
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	8.06	−1.88	0.00	−1.71	−0.17
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.56	12.64	−1.92	0.00	−1.98	+0.06
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	8.39	−1.98	0.00	−1.77	−0.21
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.78	8.73	−2.05	0.00	−1.83	−0.23
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	9.77	−2.13	0.00	−2.46	+0.33
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	9.09	−2.16	0.00	−2.21	+0.05
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	6.81	−2.17	0.00	−2.00	−0.17
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.00	7.73	−2.27	0.00	−2.01	−0.26
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	8.35	−2.29	0.00	−2.13	−0.16
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	11.54	−2.39	0.00	−2.46	+0.07
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	8.31	−2.41	0.00	−2.33	−0.08
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.95	7.33	−2.62	0.00	−2.52	−0.11
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.69	11.01	−2.68	0.00	−2.46	−0.21
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.21	8.42	−2.79	0.00	−2.35	−0.45
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.81	7.98	−2.83	0.00	−2.67	−0.16
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.79	9.77	−3.02	0.00	−2.89	−0.13
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	9.80	−3.23	0.00	−3.36	+0.13

Seed 6 of experiment cycle-003.e4-chl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.