E4 · cycle-003.e4-chl

Chile, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Chile decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 14, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Legitimacy rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.72 (−0.57); From 10.29; 9.71 to 9.73
Rank by index: 48; From 44; 48 to 48
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 48; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.29	9.71	9.72	9.73	higher
Rank by index	44	48	48	48	lower
Tier rank	48	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	733.2	699.2	699.9	700.5	higher
Goal-weighted score	733.2	699.2	699.9	700.5	higher
Resilient score	733.2	699.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 82 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 18 per cent of the 1,866 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Chile actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. A hold-out nation: never tuned to. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.29; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 10.61; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.72; 9.67 to 9.77
Skill against persistence: −1.34; group error 1.88 against 0.81 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	4.24	4.45	3.63 3.6–3.6	−0.82	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	11.97	11.79	12.16 12.1–12.2	+0.37	right
National Security	7.79	7.57	6.77 6.7–6.8	−0.80	wrong
Human Capital	11.12	12.28	13.03 12.9–13.1	+0.75	right
Information & Influence	8.93	9.38	7.30 7.2–7.3	−2.08	wrong
Governance & Integrity	12.93	13.64	13.33 13.3–13.4	−0.31	right
Financial Strength	13.34	13.24	12.14 12.1–12.2	−1.10	wrong
Production & Innovation	10.72	11.01	9.23 9.2–9.3	−1.79	wrong
Trade & Investment	11.59	12.14	9.90 9.8–9.9	−2.24	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.4 The Asian financial crisis and copper price slump tightened external financing, though Chilean capital controls and fiscal discipline cushioned the shock.
2008 · S02 × 0.7 The global financial crisis cut trade and external credit sharply and pushed Chile's GDP down in 2009, prompting countercyclical stimulus.
2010 · S07 × 0.9 The 8.8 Maule earthquake and tsunami damaged central Chile's infrastructure and economic core, requiring a major reconstruction effort.
2018 · S01 × 0.3 US-China trade tensions and copper demand uncertainty disrupted Chile's main export market and value chains at the margin.
2019 · S05 × 0.8 The October 2019 estallido brought mass protests over inequality, a legitimacy crisis for government and security forces, and a constitutional reform process.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 COVID-19 overwhelmed health services at peaks and forced prolonged lockdowns and fiscal support, with high deaths per capita.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 5% each The Concertación governments deepened education reform, concession-built motorways, and pursued open regional trade after APEC and Mercosur associate membership. (Foundational Education, Transport Infrastructure, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2001–2005 · partner · 5% each Ricardo Lagos's government negotiated the EU, US and South Korea free trade agreements while launching AUGE health guarantees and consolidating inflation targeting. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Health System Capability, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Monetary & Currency Capability)
2006–2010 · build · 5% each Bachelet's first term prioritised social protection, pension reform, early childhood expansion and energy security after Argentine gas cuts. (Advanced Education, Energy Infrastructure, Early Childhood Development, Financial System Depth & Access)
2011–2014 · build · 5% each Piñera's first government drove earthquake reconstruction, energy expansion, education quality improvements and entrepreneurship reforms. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Energy Infrastructure, Foundational Education, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)
2015–2018 · build · 5% each Bachelet's second term introduced free higher education and tax reform, launched a constitutional process and accelerated renewables and energy storage. (Advanced Education, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Energy Infrastructure)
2019–2021 · build · 5% each After the 2019 estallido and during COVID-19, Chile strengthened public order response, crisis management and health capacity while running large fiscal support. (Internal Security & Order, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2022–2026 · build · 5% each Gabriel Boric's government pursued the National Lithium Strategy, green hydrogen and renewables, social protection and expanded security investment amid rising crime concerns. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties are the exact 1996 scores for hard-to-observe capabilities, especially military and intelligence, and the conversion of Chile's distinctive political and social shocks into the event library. The 1996 position also relies on comparative data that are coarser for soft power, research and innovation than for macroeconomic and trade indicators.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Chile played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.29 to a median of 9.72 (−0.57), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.71 and 9.73 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 44 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 48. Its base income is 336 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,866 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Infrastructure (build, 289 credits, 15.5 per cent); Advanced Education (build, 146 credits, 7.8 per cent); Foundational Education (build, 131 credits, 7.0 per cent); Internal Security & Order (build, 123 credits, 6.6 per cent); National Resilience & Crisis Management (build, 109 credits, 5.8 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 82 per cent, partner 18 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.072, and the most repeated action appeared in 60 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Human Capital; rounds 6 to 10, Human Capital; rounds 11 to 15, Human Capital; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Governance & Integrity; rounds 26 to 30, Strategic Infrastructure [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −30.4 points each); S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −27.1 points each); S05 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −22.2 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.72; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.36; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.19; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.89 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+0.92 points); Foundational Education to Advanced Education (+0.71 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.17 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 48 (5th to 95th percentile 48 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 700 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.714 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.714 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.364: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.015 and −0.001, for example 1997 build Foundational Education (17 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.496 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-chl/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 25) ends −0.01 from it, with 6 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history (a hold-out nation): from a reconstructed index of 10.29 the model ends at 9.72, where the 2026 ratings put it at 10.61. Group scores miss by 1.88 points on average, against 0.81 for assuming nothing changed (skill −1.34); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−2.24); furthest above: human capital (+0.75) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.364	−99.5	−1.00
No shocks	+1.714	+116.9	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	0.00	1997 build Foundational Education (17 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.8	0.00	1997 build Transport Infrastructure (17 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00	1997 build Trade Policy & Market Access (17 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.2	0.00	1998 build Foundational Education (17 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.010	−0.9	0.00	1998 build Transport Infrastructure (17 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.496	+34.1	0.00	2020 S10 (-30.4 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.464	+32.6	0.00	2010 S07 (-27.1 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.366	+25.4	0.00	2019 S05 (-22.2 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−9.0
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.0	−9.3
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−22.2
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	14.0	−27.1
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−30.4

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	17.70 17.67 to 17.72	+7.89	9.37	289
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.50	19.37 19.30 to 19.45	+7.87	8.06	146
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.04	18.09 18.03 to 18.18	+6.05	7.06	131
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.73	17.85 17.74 to 17.90	+4.12	6.71	149
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.60	16.50 16.47 to 16.54	+3.90	4.81	83
Health System Capability	Human Capital	12.31	15.42 15.40 to 15.44	+3.11	5.19	127
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	15.53 15.50 to 15.56	+3.11	4.69	109
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	12.68	15.01 14.97 to 15.03	+2.33	3.81	123
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.80	13.81 13.79 to 13.83	+2.01	3.55	64
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	13.67	15.41 15.39 to 15.41	+1.74	2.94	83
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.10	14.71 14.66 to 14.77	+1.61	2.77	64
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.79	12.91 12.88 to 12.93	+1.12	2.71	67
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.66	14.24 14.23 to 14.26	+0.58	3.32	83
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.11	14.57 14.49 to 14.68	+0.46	1.89	79
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.01	14.12 14.10 to 14.16	+0.11	3.39	83
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.30	12.37 12.35 to 12.39	+0.07	2.40	79
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	9.17 8.91 to 9.38	−0.12	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	1.18 1.18 to 1.19	−0.21	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.37	2.04 2.03 to 2.05	−0.33	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.53 2.52 to 2.53	−0.37	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	8.94 8.80 to 9.05	−0.46	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	3.23 3.21 to 3.26	−0.50	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	3.50 3.48 to 3.51	−0.56	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.52	3.88 3.87 to 3.90	−0.64	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	3.90 3.88 to 3.91	−0.68	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	4.20 4.19 to 4.21	−0.71	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.73	14.01 13.94 to 14.10	−0.72	3.50	109
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.70 4.68 to 4.72	−0.73	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	5.50 5.49 to 5.50	−0.77	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	9.56 9.43 to 9.63	−0.77	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.92 4.89 to 4.94	−0.78	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.17	9.38 9.18 to 9.57	−0.79	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.34	5.51 5.49 to 5.54	−0.83	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.44	5.57 5.55 to 5.58	−0.87	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	7.13 6.94 to 7.24	−0.90	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.68 7.67 to 7.70	−1.03	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	8.83 8.81 to 8.85	−1.10	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.81	11.61 11.56 to 11.64	−1.20	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.43 8.39 to 8.47	−1.20	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	5.40 5.36 to 5.43	−1.21	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	11.97	10.72 10.69 to 10.74	−1.25	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.02	10.75 10.73 to 10.77	−1.27	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	13.06	11.78 11.74 to 11.83	−1.28	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.79	5.50 5.48 to 5.52	−1.29	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	7.14 7.12 to 7.19	−1.29	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	12.68	11.38 11.29 to 11.47	−1.30	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	9.64	8.34 8.32 to 8.38	−1.30	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	11.61	10.29 10.24 to 10.30	−1.32	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.99 8.91 to 9.02	−1.41	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.27	12.82 12.75 to 12.87	−1.45	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.64	13.15 13.11 to 13.20	−1.49	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.36 7.35 to 7.38	−1.60	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.28	9.60 9.57 to 9.63	−1.68	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	8.00 7.96 to 8.04	−1.75	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.33	11.55 11.53 to 11.58	−1.78	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	14.56	12.74 12.65 to 12.81	−1.82	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.94	8.02 7.98 to 8.06	−1.92	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.90	9.97 9.78 to 10.12	−1.93	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	8.43 8.40 to 8.46	−1.94	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.78	8.79 8.75 to 8.83	−1.99	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	9.05 8.97 to 9.13	−2.20	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.00	7.79 7.75 to 7.85	−2.21	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	6.76 6.70 to 6.80	−2.22	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	8.38 8.35 to 8.41	−2.26	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	11.57 11.54 to 11.62	−2.36	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	8.31 8.25 to 8.36	−2.41	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.69	11.09 11.01 to 11.16	−2.60	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.95	7.34 7.32 to 7.37	−2.61	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.21	8.48 8.42 to 8.54	−2.73	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.81	7.94 7.90 to 7.98	−2.87	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.79	9.75 9.72 to 9.80	−3.04	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	9.78 9.73 to 9.81	−3.25	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.1e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.7e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.14 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 44; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.072; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 60% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 3.8% since cycle-002 (9.36 to 9.72); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 4.1% since cycle-002 (672.13 to 699.94); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-chl. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Chile (CHL)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 14, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Legitimacy rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 335.7 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.2 seconds in all; 1632 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.