A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-egy

Simulation 11

Egypt, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 11: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.81 at the 1996 position, 10.07 in 2026; 186 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 11

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (median simulation), 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 10.07 (−0.74); From 10.81
Rank by index: 47; From 37
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0
Events: 7 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.81 +0.009
1998	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.83 +0.018
1999	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.86 +0.024
2000	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.88 +0.027
2001	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.91 +0.028
2002	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.94 +0.028
2003	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8		10.97 +0.029
2004	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8 Build Energy Infrastructure 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 8 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8	Market access opening	11.07 +0.098
2005	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 8 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8		11.17 +0.103
2006	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9		11.27 +0.101
2007	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9		11.32 +0.043
2008	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9	Global funding seizure	11.20 −0.112
2009	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9		11.24 +0.037
2010	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 9 Build Investment Attraction & Projection 9 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 9 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 9		11.28 +0.034
2011	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 9	Legitimacy rupture	10.83 −0.449
2012	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9 Build Internal Security & Order 9 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 9		10.84 +0.014
2013	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Internal Security & Order 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8	Legitimacy rupture	10.53 −0.314
2014	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Internal Security & Order 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 21 Build Energy Infrastructure 21 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 21 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 21 Build Social Infrastructure 21		10.55 +0.019
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 20 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20 Build Social Infrastructure 20		10.57 +0.024
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 20 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20 Build Social Infrastructure 20 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Population Health 8 Build Health System Capability 8	Global funding seizure	10.41 −0.160
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 20 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20 Build Social Infrastructure 20 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Population Health 8 Build Health System Capability 8		10.46 +0.053
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 19 Build Energy Infrastructure 19 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 19 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 19 Build Social Infrastructure 19 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Population Health 8 Build Health System Capability 8		10.52 +0.056
2019	Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 20 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20 Build Social Infrastructure 20 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Population Health 8 Build Health System Capability 8		10.58 +0.061
2020	Build Transport Infrastructure 20 Build Energy Infrastructure 20 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 20 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 20 Build Social Infrastructure 20 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial System Depth & Access 8 Build Population Health 8 Build Health System Capability 8 Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8	Severe pandemic	10.47 −0.108
2021	Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8		10.53 +0.063
2022	Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8	Breadbasket failure	10.19 −0.348
2023	Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8	Regional war spillover	10.03 −0.151
2024	Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8		10.05 +0.016
2025	Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8		10.06 +0.010
2026	Partner Population Health 8 Partner Health System Capability 8 Partner Communications & Digital Infrastructure 8 Partner Energy Technologies 8 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 8		10.07 +0.010

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	8	7
Strategic Infrastructure	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	9	8	7	7	6	6
Information & Influence	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	9	10	9	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Financial Strength	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	8	9	9	9	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Production & Innovation	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	6	6	6	6	6	6	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10
Trade & Investment	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.462	−108.1	−1.00
No shocks	+2.186	+151.2	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.014	−1.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.606	+42.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.445	+30.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.400	+28.0	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	19.48	+7.37	+8.47	−1.09	−0.01
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	16.75	+4.94	+6.36	−1.45	+0.03
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.77	18.27	+4.50	+5.64	−1.09	−0.06
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	15.35	+3.47	+5.04	−1.58	0.00
Population Health	Human Capital	10.23	13.65	+3.42	+4.51	−1.31	+0.22
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	14.84	+3.30	+5.20	−1.81	−0.08
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	14.24	+2.89	+3.95	−1.16	+0.10
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.89	9.42	+2.53	+3.70	−1.20	+0.04
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.71	13.72	+2.01	+3.28	−1.29	+0.02
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	13.54	+1.79	+4.37	−2.56	−0.02
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	14.11	+1.58	+3.39	−1.63	−0.18
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	15.35	+1.56	+3.24	−2.55	+0.87
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.29	13.80	+1.51	+2.83	−1.53	+0.21
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.04	8.51	+0.47	+1.97	−1.44	−0.07
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.49	11.94	+0.45	+3.31	−2.75	−0.12
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.63	13.03	+0.40	+2.39	−1.92	−0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.85	9.92	+0.07	+1.66	−1.70	+0.11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.01
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	2.23	−0.32	0.00	−0.29	−0.03
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.69	−0.38	0.00	−0.36	−0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.99	11.54	−0.45	+1.48	−1.88	−0.05
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	3.06	−0.47	0.00	−0.43	−0.05
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	2.96	−0.47	0.00	−0.41	−0.06
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	8.92	−0.48	0.00	−0.85	+0.37
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.68	10.04	−0.64	0.00	−0.70	+0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.77	−0.66	0.00	−0.69	+0.03
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	4.87	−0.77	0.00	−0.71	−0.06
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.83	6.03	−0.80	0.00	−0.87	+0.06
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	6.50	5.63	−0.87	0.00	−0.82	−0.05
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	10.67	−0.89	0.00	−1.20	+0.32
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.32	10.41	−0.91	0.00	−1.03	+0.12
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.85	10.93	−0.92	0.00	−0.88	−0.04
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.00	−0.93	0.00	−0.87	−0.06
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	10.03	−0.93	0.00	−1.34	+0.41
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	11.01	10.07	−0.94	0.00	−0.96	+0.02
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.73	−0.95	0.00	−0.86	−0.10
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.11	−1.07	0.00	−0.95	−0.12
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.21	−1.19	0.00	−1.07	−0.12
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	12.16	10.97	−1.19	+3.55	−4.46	−0.28
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.73	11.54	−1.19	0.00	−1.75	+0.56
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.87	12.63	−1.24	0.00	−1.88	+0.64
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	9.55	−1.25	0.00	−1.76	+0.51
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.57	−1.34	0.00	−1.29	−0.05
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	6.77	−1.34	0.00	−1.39	+0.06
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.07	7.63	−1.44	0.00	−1.54	+0.11
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.20	11.75	−1.45	0.00	−1.51	+0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	9.85	−1.48	0.00	−1.33	−0.15
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.34	−1.62	0.00	−1.49	−0.12
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.69	8.93	−1.76	0.00	−1.74	−0.02
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.52	13.68	−1.84	0.00	−1.67	−0.17
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	8.68	6.83	−1.85	0.00	−1.71	−0.14
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.30	11.45	−1.85	0.00	−1.52	−0.33
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	14.37	12.51	−1.86	0.00	−1.94	+0.08
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.68	9.74	−1.94	0.00	−1.79	−0.15
Air Power	National Security	12.96	10.95	−2.01	0.00	−1.75	−0.26
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.96	9.95	−2.01	0.00	−2.13	+0.12
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.90	−2.03	0.00	−2.02	−0.01
Land Power	National Security	15.74	13.68	−2.06	0.00	−1.67	−0.39
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	12.92	−2.07	0.00	−2.02	−0.06
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	10.98	−2.08	0.00	−2.07	−0.01
Maritime Power	National Security	10.40	8.30	−2.10	0.00	−1.96	−0.13
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.50	8.34	−2.16	0.00	−2.15	0.00
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.78	11.53	−2.25	0.00	−2.05	−0.20
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.82	6.56	−2.26	0.00	−2.07	−0.19
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	10.60	8.31	−2.29	0.00	−2.04	−0.26
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.37	7.98	−2.39	0.00	−2.31	−0.08
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.38	9.81	−2.57	+2.05	−4.45	−0.17
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.31	12.68	−2.63	0.00	−2.29	−0.33
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	15.03	12.36	−2.67	0.00	−2.48	−0.20
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	15.21	12.35	−2.86	0.00	−2.79	−0.07
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.06	−2.91	0.00	−2.90	−0.01
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	8.79	−3.19	0.00	−2.95	−0.24
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	8.86	−3.56	0.00	−3.39	−0.16

Seed 11 of experiment cycle-003.e4-egy. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.