E4 · cycle-003.e4-egy

Egypt, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Egypt decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 17, Global funding seizure in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Regional war spillover in year 27.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 10.06 (−0.74); From 10.81; 10.06 to 10.07
Rank by index: 47; From 37; 47 to 47
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 29; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.81	10.06	10.06	10.07	higher
Rank by index	37	47	47	47	lower
Tier rank	29	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	773.4	729.0	729.4	729.8	higher
Goal-weighted score	773.4	729.0	729.4	729.8	higher
Resilient score	773.4	729.4 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 86 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 14 per cent of the 1,920 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Egypt actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.81; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 8.98; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 10.06; 10.02 to 10.11
Skill against persistence: +0.01; group error 1.87 against 1.89 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	5.28	5.06	4.93 4.9–5.0	−0.13	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	12.26	11.56	13.90 13.8–14.0	+2.35	wrong
National Security	10.97	9.66	9.22 9.2–9.3	−0.44	right
Human Capital	10.67	9.13	10.72 10.7–10.8	+1.59	wrong
Information & Influence	13.31	10.70	10.82 10.8–10.9	+0.12	right
Governance & Integrity	10.34	7.56	10.22 10.2–10.2	+2.66	wrong
Financial Strength	11.34	8.72	9.62 9.6–9.7	+0.90	right
Production & Innovation	10.38	8.86	9.09 9.0–9.2	+0.23	right
Trade & Investment	12.70	9.56	12.05 11.9–12.1	+2.49	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2004 · S12 × 0.5 The EU-Egypt Association Agreement entered into force, opening European market access and investment channels.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis reduced FDI, remittances and Suez Canal revenues, tightening external finance.
2011 · S05 × 0.9 The uprising that ousted Mubarak suspended the constitution and broke effective government during the transition.
2013 · S05 × 0.6 The military removal of President Morsi and violent dispersal of protests deepened political breakdown and polarisation.
2016 · S02 × 0.6 A dollar shortage and reserve collapse forced a currency float and IMF rescue, a domestic funding seizure.
2020 · S10 × 0.7 COVID-19 collapsed tourism and strained Egypt's health system, but mortality was moderate compared with later waves elsewhere.
2022 · S06 × 0.8 Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted wheat imports and inflated subsidised bread, creating a food availability crisis.
2023 · S03 × 0.7 Houthi attacks in the Red Sea diverted shipping away from the Suez Canal, slashing Egypt's canal revenues.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2004 · build · 2% each The ERSAP stabilisation and privatisation agenda continued, rehabilitating core infrastructure while liberalising finance and trade. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial System Depth & Access, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure)
2004–2010 · build · 2% each The Nazif government deepened liberalisation, attracted European and Gulf investment, and expanded telecoms and industrial modernisation. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Investment Attraction & Projection, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2011–2014 · build · 2% each The post-2011 transition attempted constitutional, justice and security reforms amid revolutionary instability. (Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Internal Security & Order, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2014–2020 · build · 5% each The Sisi administration launched flagship megaprojects: Suez Canal expansion, new administrative capital, gas and power expansion, and national social housing. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure)
2016–2020 · build · 2% each The 2016 IMF Extended Fund Facility drove currency float, fiscal consolidation and expanded health and social mitigation spending. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial System Depth & Access, Population Health, Health System Capability)
2020–2026 · partner · 2% each Egypt pursued pandemic response, digital transformation, green hydrogen and renewable energy partnerships, and institutional resilience reforms. (Population Health, Health System Capability, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Egypt's 1996 scores are especially uncertain for technology and governance, where comparative data are sparse and the large informal economy obscures capacity. The mapping of real events to the stylised library is approximate, particularly the severity of the 2011 political rupture and the 2022 food shock.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Egypt played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.81 to a median of 10.06 (−0.74), with 90 per cent of simulations between 10.06 and 10.07 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 37 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 29. Its base income is 394 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,920 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Infrastructure (build, 203 credits, 10.6 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 203 credits, 10.6 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 199 credits, 10.4 per cent); Social Infrastructure (build, 139 credits, 7.2 per cent); Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure (build, 139 credits, 7.2 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 86 per cent, partner 14 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.070, and the most repeated action appeared in 50 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Trade & Investment; rounds 11 to 15, Trade & Investment; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Human Capital [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 7 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S06 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.1 points each); S05 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −27.6 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −13.3 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.56; Monetary & Currency Capability −4.56; Information Environment & Strategic Communication −3.49; Investment Attraction & Projection −3.15 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.14 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.12 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.66 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 47 (5th to 95th percentile 47 to 47), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 729 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.186 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.186 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.462: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.014 and −0.005, for example 2014 build Transport Infrastructure (21 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.606 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 28) ends −0.02 from it, with 7 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.81 the model ends at 10.06, where the 2026 ratings put it at 8.98. Group scores miss by 1.87 points on average, against 1.89 for assuming nothing changed (skill +0.01); the change in each domain has the right sign in 56 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (−0.44); furthest above: governance and integrity (+2.66) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.462	−108.1	−1.00
No shocks	+2.186	+151.2	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00	2014 build Transport Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00	2014 build Energy Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.014	−1.1	0.00	2014 build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00	2014 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00	2014 build Social Infrastructure (21 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.606	+42.4	0.00	2011 S05 (-32.9 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.445	+30.9	0.00	2022 S06 (-28.1 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.400	+28.0	0.00	2013 S05 (-22.3 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	16.0	−11.4
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	27.0	−13.3
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	16.0	−27.6
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−28.1
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−12.4
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+12.2

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	19.49 19.48 to 19.51	+7.38	8.47	254
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.81	16.76 16.73 to 16.80	+4.95	6.35	203
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.77	18.26 18.23 to 18.28	+4.49	5.64	203
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.88	15.35 15.32 to 15.38	+3.47	5.05	139
Population Health	Human Capital	10.23	13.63 13.59 to 13.68	+3.40	4.50	94
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.54	14.84 14.81 to 14.89	+3.30	5.21	139
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	14.17 14.12 to 14.22	+2.82	3.94	94
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.89	9.42 9.40 to 9.45	+2.53	3.69	54
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.71	13.73 13.70 to 13.76	+2.02	3.27	88
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	11.75	13.52 13.50 to 13.54	+1.77	4.37	104
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.29	13.90 13.77 to 13.99	+1.61	2.83	60
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	12.53	14.08 14.03 to 14.14	+1.55	3.40	60
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	15.13 14.97 to 15.31	+1.34	3.25	64
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.04	8.49 8.45 to 8.51	+0.45	1.97	34
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.49	11.93 11.91 to 11.96	+0.44	3.31	60
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.63	13.05 13.03 to 13.07	+0.42	2.39	60
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.85	9.89 9.86 to 9.91	+0.04	1.66	34
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	2.23 2.22 to 2.24	−0.32	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.68 2.68 to 2.69	−0.39	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	8.96 8.84 to 9.14	−0.44	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	2.97 2.96 to 2.98	−0.46	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.53	3.07 3.06 to 3.08	−0.46	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.99	11.52 11.49 to 11.55	−0.47	1.48	34
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.82 4.78 to 4.88	−0.61	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.68	10.03 10.00 to 10.05	−0.65	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.83	6.06 6.03 to 6.11	−0.77	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.64	4.85 4.83 to 4.86	−0.79	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.32	10.47 10.39 to 10.54	−0.85	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	6.50	5.63 5.62 to 5.64	−0.87	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.85	10.93 10.92 to 10.94	−0.92	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.00 8.98 to 9.02	−0.93	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.73 8.72 to 8.75	−0.95	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	11.01	10.06 10.06 to 10.07	−0.95	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.56	10.58 10.54 to 10.67	−0.98	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	9.90 9.77 to 10.04	−1.06	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.11 4.09 to 4.12	−1.07	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.87	12.71 12.47 to 12.92	−1.16	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.22 8.18 to 8.27	−1.18	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	9.57 9.42 to 9.73	−1.23	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.73	11.46 11.32 to 11.58	−1.27	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	12.16	10.88 10.80 to 10.98	−1.28	3.56	104
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.58 7.57 to 7.60	−1.33	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	6.77 6.75 to 6.78	−1.34	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.20	11.75 11.72 to 11.77	−1.45	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.07	7.62 7.59 to 7.66	−1.45	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	9.85 9.81 to 9.86	−1.48	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.34 7.32 to 7.36	−1.62	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.69	8.93 8.92 to 8.96	−1.76	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.52	13.70 13.66 to 13.76	−1.82	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	8.68	6.85 6.82 to 6.87	−1.83	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	14.37	12.51 12.46 to 12.56	−1.86	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.68	9.78 9.74 to 9.81	−1.90	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.30	11.38 11.26 to 11.46	−1.92	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	12.96	10.98 10.95 to 11.01	−1.98	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.93	7.90 7.85 to 7.95	−2.03	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.96	9.93 9.90 to 9.96	−2.03	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	14.99	12.92 12.91 to 12.95	−2.07	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.06	10.98 10.98 to 10.98	−2.08	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	15.74	13.64 13.51 to 13.71	−2.10	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	10.40	8.28 8.25 to 8.29	−2.12	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.50	8.30 8.26 to 8.35	−2.20	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.82	6.58 6.55 to 6.62	−2.24	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.78	11.49 11.45 to 11.55	−2.29	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	10.60	8.31 8.23 to 8.36	−2.29	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.37	7.97 7.95 to 8.02	−2.40	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.38	9.84 9.80 to 9.89	−2.54	2.05	39
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.31	12.65 12.54 to 12.72	−2.66	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	15.03	12.33 12.28 to 12.39	−2.70	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	15.21	12.33 12.27 to 12.37	−2.88	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.06 8.05 to 8.07	−2.91	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.98	8.84 8.74 to 8.92	−3.14	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	8.87 8.83 to 8.91	−3.55	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 6.8e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 19.511
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.4e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.80 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 37; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.070; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.communications_and_digital_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 50% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 3.3% since cycle-002 (9.74 to 10.06); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 3.6% since cycle-002 (704.22 to 729.36); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-egy. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Egypt (EGY)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Legitimacy rupture in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 17, Global funding seizure in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Regional war spillover in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 394.2 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.1 seconds in all; 1812 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.