Simulation 18
United Kingdom, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 17.25 at the 1996 position, 17.52 in 2026; 259 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (median simulation), 2 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 17.52 (+0.26)
- From 17.25
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 2
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 8
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 17.27 +0.020 | |
| 1998 |
| 17.32 +0.046 | |
| 1999 |
| 17.39 +0.069 | |
| 2000 |
| 17.47 +0.079 | |
| 2001 |
| 17.53 +0.060 | |
| 2002 |
| 17.55 +0.025 | |
| 2003 |
| 17.57 +0.019 | |
| 2004 |
| 17.59 +0.017 | |
| 2005 |
| 17.61 +0.023 | |
| 2006 |
| 17.64 +0.030 | |
| 2007 |
| 17.66 +0.020 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.32 −0.337 |
| 2009 |
| 17.33 +0.003 | |
| 2010 |
| 17.34 +0.011 | |
| 2011 |
| 17.37 +0.030 | |
| 2012 |
| 17.41 +0.046 | |
| 2013 |
| 17.46 +0.047 | |
| 2014 |
| 17.51 +0.046 | |
| 2015 |
| 17.55 +0.040 | |
| 2016 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.54 −0.003 |
| 2017 |
| 17.55 +0.002 | |
| 2018 |
| 17.49 −0.051 | |
| 2019 |
| 17.51 +0.018 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 17.25 −0.262 |
| 2021 |
| Outbreak defence succeeds | 17.68 +0.424 |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spilloverGlobal funding seizure | 17.41 −0.263 |
| 2023 |
| 17.45 +0.040 | |
| 2024 |
| 17.48 +0.032 | |
| 2025 |
| 17.51 +0.021 | |
| 2026 |
| 17.52 +0.011 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.435 | −104.7 | −6.00 |
| No shocks | +0.826 | +54.7 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.012 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.243 | +16.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.235 | +16.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.199 | +13.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.91 | 19.91 | +5.00 | +8.54 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.14 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.32 | 20.00 | +4.68 | +5.85 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.15 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 15.60 | 19.85 | +4.25 | +6.51 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.36 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 13.66 | 17.86 | +4.20 | +5.06 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.02 |
| Land Power | National Security | 15.74 | 19.86 | +4.12 | +6.62 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.45 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.34 | 19.92 | +3.58 | +5.05 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.10 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.80 | 20.00 | +3.20 | +6.23 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.21 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 17.05 | 20.00 | +2.95 | +4.19 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.41 | 20.00 | +2.59 | +3.56 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.32 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.36 | 19.92 | +2.56 | +3.88 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.20 | 19.66 | +2.46 | +6.35 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.19 | 18.63 | +2.44 | +4.78 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.81 | 19.94 | +2.13 | +10.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.67 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.78 | 19.74 | +1.96 | +3.59 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.26 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.63 | 19.52 | +1.89 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 18.13 | 19.91 | +1.78 | +5.54 | 0.00 | −1.60 | 0.00 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.71 | 19.92 | +1.21 | +5.24 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.32 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 19.01 | 19.84 | +0.83 | +4.69 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.26 |
| Air Power | National Security | 19.04 | 19.83 | +0.79 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 18.99 | 19.70 | +0.71 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.09 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 18.86 | 19.57 | +0.71 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −2.10 | −0.01 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 19.28 | 19.98 | +0.70 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.09 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.48 | 17.02 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.67 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.46 | 16.95 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.51 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.44 | 12.63 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.37 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.72 | 16.80 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.45 | 16.49 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.18 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.17 | 18.18 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.31 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.49 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +5.56 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 18.08 | 18.08 | 0.00 | +2.93 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.31 | 17.26 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.26 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 17.74 | 17.67 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.20 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 18.29 | 18.14 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.27 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.84 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.32 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 15.82 | 15.62 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 19.79 | −0.21 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.20 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 18.97 | 18.72 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 15.13 | 14.88 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.13 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.35 | 15.07 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.21 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.91 | 16.63 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.70 | 16.41 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.04 | 14.72 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 16.55 | 16.22 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.10 | 15.70 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.11 | 14.70 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.18 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 15.02 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.08 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.43 | 15.02 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.56 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.02 | 14.56 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.03 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 20.00 | 19.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.09 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 19.27 | 18.78 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.08 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.14 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.58 | 14.04 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 19.43 | −0.57 | +4.84 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 14.60 | 13.99 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 16.01 | 15.40 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 15.22 | 14.61 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.57 | 16.93 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.06 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.28 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.53 | 14.79 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.10 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 17.29 | 16.52 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.22 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 16.81 | 15.75 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.06 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.65 | 15.47 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.55 | 16.24 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.81 | 14.46 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 18.68 | 17.26 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 15.04 | 13.51 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.23 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.32 | 15.69 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 19.67 | 17.85 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 16.78 | 14.94 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.23 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 18.02 | 16.15 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.09 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.29 | 13.06 | −2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.10 | −0.13 |
Seed 18 of experiment cycle-003.e4-gbr. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.