E4 · cycle-003.e4-grc

Greece, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Greece decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 14, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Breadbasket failure in year 27.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 12.18 (+0.08); From 12.10; 12.17 to 12.20
Rank by index: 27; From 28; 27 to 28
Domains at Tier 1: 5; From 0; 5 to 5
Tier rank: 3; From 35; 3 to 3

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	12.10	12.17	12.18	12.20	higher
Rank by index	28	27	27	28	lower
Tier rank	35	3	3	3	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	5	5	5	higher
Score sum	872.5	881.2	882.1	883.2	higher
Goal-weighted score	872.5	881.2	882.1	883.2	higher
Resilient score	872.5	882.2 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 69 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 31 per cent of the 2,628 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Greece actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 12.10; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 10.61; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 12.18; 12.11 to 12.26
Skill against persistence: −0.38; group error 2.22 against 1.61 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	7.27	5.59	7.27 7.3–7.3	+1.68	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	12.84	11.50	14.34 14.2–14.5	+2.84	wrong
National Security	11.99	9.90	11.54 11.5–11.6	+1.64	right
Human Capital	13.48	11.97	13.91 13.8–14.0	+1.93	wrong
Information & Influence	13.48	10.41	12.82 12.8–12.9	+2.40	right
Governance & Integrity	12.75	11.95	14.07 14.0–14.2	+2.13	wrong
Financial Strength	12.20	11.81	13.67 13.6–13.8	+1.87	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.66	10.45	10.03 10.0–10.2	−0.43	right
Trade & Investment	13.21	11.92	11.94 11.9–12.0	+0.03	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2010 · S02 × 1.5 Revelation of a far larger budget deficit shut Greece out of sovereign bond markets and triggered the EU/IMF bailouts and a depression.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic hit tourism, hospitality and the health system; lockdowns caused one of the EU's deepest recessions in 2020.
2022 · S03 × 0.4 Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea shipping and raised energy and food-import costs, hurting Greek shipping and households.
2023 · S06 × 0.5 Storm Daniel flooded the Thessaly plain, Greece's main cereal and cotton area, cutting domestic food output and livestock.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 5% each Convergence to the Maastricht criteria for euro adoption drove fiscal retrenchment, central-bank modernisation and regulatory alignment. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial Infrastructure)
2001–2004 · build · 5% each Preparations for the 2004 Athens Olympics concentrated investment in transport, telecoms, venues and tourism promotion. (Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy, Digital & Services Trade, Social Infrastructure)
2005–2009 · build · 2% each Post-euro credit growth and episodic liberalisation aimed to deepen finance, attract investment and improve skills, though implementation was weak. (Financial System Depth & Access, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Investment Attraction & Projection, Advanced Manufacturing, Technical & Vocational Skills)
2010–2018 · partner · 5% each EU/IMF memoranda forced fiscal consolidation, financial supervision, public administration and labour-market reforms during the debt crisis. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Labour & Employment)
2019–2026 · build · 5% each The national Recovery and Resilience Plan and EU funds targeted digital transformation, the green energy transition, health resilience and innovation. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Health System Capability, Digital & Services Trade, Innovation & Commercialisation)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Main uncertainties concern the 1996 baseline: Greek capabilities were uneven and often below EU core levels, so scores interpolate between OECD/Eurostat data and qualitative evidence. National security scores rest partly on classified or alliance-integrated assets, and trade and financial scores are shaped by the later sovereign debt crisis that retroactively revealed weaknesses. The mapping of post-2020 events to the library is approximate because Greece experienced inflation, energy and climate shocks that do not correspond exactly to any single event.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Greece played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 12.10 to a median of 12.18 (+0.08), with 90 per cent of simulations between 12.16 and 12.20 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 28 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 35. Its base income is 465 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 2,624 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 308 credits, 11.7 per cent); Financial Regulation & Integrity (partner, 228 credits, 8.7 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (partner, 228 credits, 8.7 per cent); Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption (partner, 222 credits, 8.4 per cent); Energy Technologies (build, 210 credits, 8.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 69 per cent, partner 31 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.073, and the most repeated action appeared in 40 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Governance & Integrity; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Financial Strength; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, Financial Strength; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −44.4 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −27.3 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −15.1 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.24; Labour & Employment −3.12; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.04; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.87 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+1.30 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+1.15 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (+0.82 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 27 (5th to 95th percentile 27 to 28), the median count of Tier 1 domains 5 (5 to 5) and the median tier rank 3; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 882 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: financial strength (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 97 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.151 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.151 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −2.010: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.011 and +0.014, for example 2021 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (27 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.506 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-grc/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 2) ends +0.04 from it, with 4 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 12.10 the model ends at 12.18, where the 2026 ratings put it at 10.61. Group scores miss by 2.22 points on average, against 1.61 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.38); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (−0.43); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+2.84) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−2.010	−141.9	−4.90
No shocks	+1.151	+75.5	−0.50
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.006	+0.3	+0.10	2021 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (27 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.009	−1.0	+0.10	2021 build Energy Technologies (27 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.011	−0.9	+0.10	2021 build Health System Capability (27 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.014	+1.1	+0.10	2020 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (27 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.002	−0.3	+0.10	2020 build Energy Technologies (27 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.506	+32.3	−0.90	2010 S02 (-44.4 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.368	+24.8	−1.90	2020 S10 (-27.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.206	+14.8	−0.40	2022 S03 (-15.1 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	14.0	−44.4
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−15.1
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	27.0	−9.0
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−27.3

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.89	14.86 14.84 to 14.88	+7.97	8.92	210
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.51	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+6.49	7.45	308
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.43	17.76 17.70 to 17.83	+6.33	9.64	322
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.06	17.35 17.31 to 17.41	+6.29	7.24	222
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.27	18.70 18.41 to 18.91	+5.43	6.32	215
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.56	18.70 18.66 to 18.73	+5.14	7.49	229
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.24	18.70 18.47 to 18.90	+4.46	4.91	152
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.44	16.60 16.58 to 16.62	+4.16	4.84	51
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.81	17.88 17.55 to 18.11	+4.07	3.36	99
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.97	18.80 18.70 to 18.93	+3.83	4.53	94
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	12.53	15.97 15.94 to 16.02	+3.44	4.09	94
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.38	16.80 16.56 to 17.06	+3.42	3.54	99
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	15.81	18.60 18.58 to 18.62	+2.79	3.80	99
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.70	19.15 19.05 to 19.34	+2.45	3.75	137
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.20	14.78 14.59 to 14.91	+1.58	3.72	94
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.80	13.07 13.01 to 13.11	+1.27	2.65	51
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	13.16 13.02 to 13.24	+1.01	1.83	51
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.42	15.06 14.75 to 15.33	+0.64	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.36	12.37 12.33 to 12.44	+0.01	2.86	51
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.35 0.34 to 0.35	−0.01	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.89	12.80 12.77 to 12.83	−0.09	2.33	51
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.97	12.77 12.56 to 13.05	−0.20	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.39	13.04 12.91 to 13.22	−0.35	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	10.92 10.70 to 11.11	−0.41	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	13.39 13.28 to 13.56	−0.44	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.18	3.72 3.71 to 3.74	−0.46	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	15.74	15.28 15.22 to 15.35	−0.46	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	13.95	13.47 13.38 to 13.57	−0.48	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.83 3.82 to 3.86	−0.51	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	12.82	12.31 12.25 to 12.42	−0.51	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.49	12.95 12.82 to 13.14	−0.54	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	16.27	15.71 15.67 to 15.74	−0.56	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	7.57	7.00 6.96 to 7.03	−0.57	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.04	11.44 11.33 to 11.51	−0.60	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	13.55	12.90 12.87 to 12.94	−0.65	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	10.49	9.81 9.78 to 9.84	−0.68	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	5.15 5.14 to 5.16	−0.71	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	15.86	15.13 15.09 to 15.16	−0.73	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.53 6.49 to 6.59	−0.81	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.22	11.39 11.29 to 11.54	−0.83	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	10.73 10.71 to 10.76	−0.88	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	15.40	14.49 14.47 to 14.52	−0.91	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	7.89	6.96 6.93 to 6.99	−0.93	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	12.85	11.88 11.83 to 11.92	−0.97	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.95	12.98 12.95 to 13.00	−0.97	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	9.63	8.65 8.61 to 8.70	−0.98	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	12.41	11.43 11.42 to 11.44	−0.98	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.10	8.11 8.02 to 8.19	−0.99	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	7.64 7.63 to 7.65	−0.99	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	11.97	10.97 10.96 to 10.99	−1.00	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	8.46	7.41 7.39 to 7.43	−1.05	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	13.36	12.24 12.18 to 12.27	−1.12	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	14.43	13.30 13.27 to 13.34	−1.13	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.37	14.20 14.20 to 14.21	−1.17	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.11	11.93 11.90 to 11.97	−1.18	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.92	9.73 9.69 to 9.75	−1.19	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	15.24	13.93 13.90 to 13.98	−1.31	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.67	10.30 10.18 to 10.43	−1.37	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	7.96 7.95 to 7.97	−1.49	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.91	11.38 11.33 to 11.45	−1.53	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	12.68	11.00 10.95 to 11.02	−1.68	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	6.72 6.68 to 6.76	−1.70	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.87	8.14 8.13 to 8.15	−1.73	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	10.67 10.65 to 10.70	−1.75	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.43	9.45 9.42 to 9.50	−1.98	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	14.93	12.83 12.73 to 12.88	−2.10	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	14.16	11.96 11.85 to 12.16	−2.20	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.20	10.96 10.91 to 10.99	−2.24	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	10.35	8.03 7.99 to 8.07	−2.32	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.69	11.27 11.12 to 11.44	−2.42	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	10.79	8.29 8.23 to 8.34	−2.50	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.01	9.17 9.13 to 9.20	−2.84	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	12.16	9.06 8.97 to 9.72	−3.10	0.20	4

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 4.3e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.338 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.3e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.53 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 7 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 28; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.073; most funded group economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 40% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 1.2% since cycle-002 (12.32 to 12.18); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 0.8% since cycle-002 (889.57 to 882.14); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-grc. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Greece (GRC)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 14, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Breadbasket failure in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 465.1 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.1 seconds in all; 1555 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.