Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-ind

Simulation 23

India, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 23: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.92 at the 1996 position, 7.33 in 2026; 138 actions over 30 rounds and 11 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 23

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.33 (−1.59); From 8.92
Rank by index: 75; From 59
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 11 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5		8.93 +0.010
1998	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 13 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 13 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 13 Build Air Power 13 Build Maritime Power 13	Trade bloc rupture	8.91 −0.019
1999	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 10	Regional war spillover	8.61 −0.301
2000	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 12		8.59 −0.020
2001	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 11 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 11 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 11 Build Air Power 9	Core disaster	8.27 −0.323
2002	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 13 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 13 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10		8.28 +0.015
2003	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12		8.29 +0.013
2004	Build Financial System Depth & Access 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Digital & Services Trade 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12	Core disaster	8.09 −0.206
2005	Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Build Air Power 12 Build Maritime Power 8		8.10 +0.012
2006	Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Build Air Power 12 Build Maritime Power 9		8.10 +0.003
2007	Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Build Air Power 12 Build Maritime Power 8		8.11 +0.007
2008	Build Nuclear Deterrence 12 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 12 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 12 Build Air Power 12 Build Maritime Power 6	Global funding seizureBreadbasket failure	7.85 −0.262
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11		7.86 +0.005
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Resource Infrastructure 11 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11		7.86 +0.008
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Resource Infrastructure 11 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10		7.87 +0.011
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Resource Infrastructure 11 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 9		7.89 +0.015
2013	Build Foundational Education 11 Build Early Childhood Development 11 Build Health System Capability 11 Build Population Health 8	Global funding seizure	7.78 −0.105
2014	Build Foundational Education 11 Build Early Childhood Development 11 Build Health System Capability 11 Build Population Health 3		7.80 +0.017
2015	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Digital & AI Competence 11 Build Advanced Manufacturing 11 Build Energy Technologies 4		7.82 +0.018
2016	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Digital & AI Competence 11 Build Advanced Manufacturing 11 Build Energy Technologies 3	Global funding seizurePublic service leap	7.72 −0.101
2017	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Digital & AI Competence 11 Build Advanced Manufacturing 11 Build Energy Technologies 8		7.83 +0.113
2018	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Digital & AI Competence 11 Build Advanced Manufacturing 11 Build Energy Technologies 5		7.95 +0.114
2019	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Digital & AI Competence 11 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2		7.97 +0.026
2020	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10 Build Digital & AI Competence 10 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2	Severe pandemic	7.55 −0.422
2021	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10 Build Digital & AI Competence 10 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2		7.57 +0.017
2022	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 10 Build Digital & AI Competence 10 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2	Breadbasket failureTrade bloc rupture	7.37 −0.194
2023	No actions		7.35 −0.023
2024	No actions		7.32 −0.030
2025	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 Build Space Technologies 8 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 4		7.32 0.000
2026	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 Build Space Technologies 9 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 2		7.33 +0.004

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
National Security	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Human Capital	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	8	7	7	5	5	5	4	4	4
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Financial Strength	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	18	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	20	21	21	20	20	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Production & Innovation	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Trade & Investment	10	10	10	10	10	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	12	11	12	12	12	12	12

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−0.732	−58.6	0.00
No shocks	+2.754	+193.1	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.002	−0.1	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	0.000	+0.0	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	0.000	+0.0	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.479	+33.7	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.395	+28.4	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.275	+19.8	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	16.72	+6.43	+7.09	0.00	−0.99	+0.33
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	14.36	+3.99	+5.59	−0.01	−1.48	−0.11
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	4.87	6.63	+1.76	+2.51	0.00	−0.82	+0.07
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	11.45	+1.58	+3.47	−0.01	−1.69	−0.19
Air Power	National Security	10.19	10.88	+0.69	+2.29	−0.01	−1.38	−0.22
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	12.78	+0.32	+2.72	−0.01	−1.32	−1.07
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	4.92	+0.14	+1.15	−0.01	−0.93	−0.08
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.73	7.82	+0.09	+2.06	0.00	−1.64	−0.34
Maritime Power	National Security	9.18	9.15	−0.03	+1.70	−0.01	−1.64	−0.08
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.99	6.91	−0.08	+2.19	0.00	−2.16	−0.12
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.76	8.68	−0.08	+1.54	0.00	−1.41	−0.20
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	10.43	−0.13	+1.99	0.00	−1.85	−0.26
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.46	8.20	−0.26	+1.55	0.00	−1.49	−0.32
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	4.41	−0.33	+0.37	0.00	−0.66	−0.03
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	5.81	−0.46	0.00	−0.01	−0.51	+0.05
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	8.10	−0.51	+2.29	0.00	−2.58	−0.21
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	10.91	−0.53	+2.35	−0.01	−3.36	+0.49
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	4.41	−0.67	0.00	0.00	−0.59	−0.08
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.43	−0.81	0.00	0.00	−0.60	−0.20
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	9.21	−0.82	+1.65	0.00	−2.17	−0.30
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	6.50	5.67	−0.83	+0.20	−0.01	−0.98	−0.05
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.02	8.18	−0.84	+2.04	0.00	−2.43	−0.44
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.77	7.81	−0.96	+0.33	−0.01	−1.14	−0.14
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	7.36	−0.98	0.00	0.00	−0.95	−0.03
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	7.40	−1.00	0.00	0.00	−0.83	−0.17
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.28	8.25	−1.03	0.00	0.00	−0.96	−0.07
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.98	6.90	−1.08	0.00	−0.01	−1.03	−0.04
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	7.21	6.11	−1.10	0.00	−0.01	−0.91	−0.17
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	6.76	−1.10	0.00	0.00	−1.01	−0.10
Population Health	Human Capital	7.78	6.68	−1.10	+0.69	0.00	−1.51	−0.27
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.71	−1.12	0.00	0.00	−1.01	−0.11
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.20	9.01	−1.19	0.00	0.00	−1.08	−0.11
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	8.15	−1.19	+2.59	−0.01	−3.53	−0.24
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.51	−1.21	0.00	−0.01	−1.24	+0.04
Space Operations	National Security	6.97	5.72	−1.25	0.00	−0.01	−1.01	−0.24
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	8.64	−1.46	0.00	0.00	−1.32	−0.14
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.57	9.10	−1.47	0.00	0.00	−1.40	−0.07
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.15	−1.48	0.00	−0.01	−1.35	−0.12
Land Power	National Security	12.00	10.51	−1.49	0.00	−0.01	−1.44	−0.04
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.40	−1.49	0.00	0.00	−1.36	−0.12
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	7.61	−1.50	+1.10	0.00	−2.16	−0.43
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	10.07	8.44	−1.63	0.00	0.00	−1.31	−0.32
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	5.90	−1.71	0.00	0.00	−1.35	−0.36
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	6.88	−1.83	0.00	−0.01	−1.52	−0.31
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	8.10	−1.88	0.00	−0.01	−1.84	−0.03
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.83	−1.92	0.00	−0.01	−1.80	−0.12
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.45	7.52	−1.93	+2.13	0.00	−3.97	−0.08
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.49	8.39	−2.10	0.00	−0.01	−1.91	−0.18
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	6.52	−2.12	0.00	0.00	−2.33	+0.22
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	7.30	−2.15	0.00	−0.01	−2.00	−0.15
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.86	7.70	−2.16	0.00	0.00	−1.71	−0.45
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	5.41	−2.23	0.00	0.00	−2.02	−0.20
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	6.74	−2.23	0.00	0.00	−2.15	−0.07
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	6.77	−2.45	0.00	0.00	−1.93	−0.52
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	5.71	−2.55	0.00	0.00	−2.17	−0.39
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	7.38	−2.55	0.00	0.00	−2.39	−0.15
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	6.38	−2.58	0.00	0.00	−2.39	−0.19
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	8.60	−2.68	0.00	0.00	−1.92	−0.76
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.37	7.67	−2.70	0.00	0.00	−2.42	−0.28
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.89	6.01	−2.88	0.00	0.00	−2.25	−0.63
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	7.23	4.26	−2.97	0.00	0.00	−2.66	−0.31
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.57	6.56	−3.01	0.00	0.00	−2.50	−0.50
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	4.68	−3.10	0.00	0.00	−2.58	−0.52
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.60	5.45	−3.15	0.00	0.00	−2.77	−0.37
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.02	4.78	−3.24	0.00	0.00	−3.06	−0.18
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.53	5.17	−3.36	0.00	0.00	−3.12	−0.24
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.55	−3.39	0.00	0.00	−3.39	0.00
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	6.84	−3.43	0.00	0.00	−3.35	−0.09
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	6.78	−3.45	0.00	0.00	−3.32	−0.12
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	5.92	−3.56	0.00	0.00	−3.16	−0.40
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.35	6.13	−4.22	0.00	0.00	−3.79	−0.43
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.52	4.28	−4.24	0.00	0.00	−4.09	−0.14
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.23	4.41	−4.82	0.00	0.00	−4.21	−0.60

Seed 23 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ind. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.