E4 · cycle-003.e4-ind

India, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. India decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Trade bloc rupture in year 2, Regional war spillover in year 3, Core disaster in year 5, Core disaster in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 17, Global funding seizure in year 20, Public service leap in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.33 (−1.59); From 8.92; 7.31 to 7.33
Rank by index: 75; From 59; 75 to 76
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 37; From 48; 37 to 37

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	8.92	7.31	7.33	7.33	higher
Rank by index	59	75	75	76	lower
Tier rank	48	37	37	37	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	645.7	542.1	543.0	543.5	higher
Goal-weighted score	645.7	542.1	543.0	543.5	higher
Resilient score	645.7	542.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 100 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 1,200 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks India actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 8.92; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 12.62; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 7.32; 7.27 to 7.38
Skill against persistence: −0.42; group error 5.33 against 3.76 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	6.60	12.46	5.78 5.8–5.8	−6.68	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	9.30	13.87	8.46 8.4–8.6	−5.40	wrong
National Security	9.26	14.23	9.01 8.9–9.1	−5.23	wrong
Human Capital	8.92	9.96	8.69 8.6–8.8	−1.27	wrong
Information & Influence	9.45	14.10	7.36 7.3–7.4	−6.74	wrong
Governance & Integrity	9.41	11.13	7.88 7.8–7.9	−3.25	wrong
Financial Strength	9.53	13.12	6.17 6.1–6.2	−6.94	wrong
Production & Innovation	8.79	11.67	6.30 6.3–6.3	−5.37	wrong
Trade & Investment	9.02	12.99	6.25 6.2–6.3	−6.74	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S01 × 0.4 Pokhran-II nuclear tests triggered US and allied technology sanctions that briefly restricted high-tech trade and investment.
1999 · S03 × 0.5 The Kargil conflict with Pakistan was a limited high-altitude war on the Line of Control, forcing emergency defence procurement.
2001 · S07 × 0.6 The Gujarat earthquake killed about 20,000 people and destroyed large parts of Bhuj and nearby districts.
2004 · S07 × 0.4 The Indian Ocean tsunami struck the south-eastern coast, killing over 10,000 in India and damaging coastal livelihoods.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis reversed capital flows and slowed growth, though India avoided a banking collapse.
2008 · S06 × 0.3 The world food price spike pushed Indian food inflation up and led to export restrictions on rice and wheat.
2013 · S02 × 0.4 The taper tantrum exposed India's current-account and external-financing vulnerability, causing a sharp rupee depreciation.
2016 · S02 × 0.7 Demonetisation withdrew 86 per cent of currency by value, disrupting the cash-dependent economy and slowing growth.
2016 · S18 × 0.8 Aadhaar, direct benefit transfer and UPI began delivering a public service and payment platform at population scale.
2020 · S10 × 1.2 COVID-19 overwhelmed health systems in 2020-21; the Delta wave caused very high excess mortality and economic contraction.
2022 · S06 × 0.5 A severe heatwave reduced wheat yields and the government banned wheat exports, worsening global food insecurity.
2022 · S01 × 0.3 Russia's invasion of Ukraine divided trade and raised energy, fertiliser and food costs, though India maintained multi-aligned trade.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2004 · build · 2% each Post-1991 liberalisation deepened: telecoms were opened, software technology parks expanded exports, and financial-sector reforms began to widen credit and markets. (Financial System Depth & Access, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & Services Trade, Trade Policy & Market Access, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)
1998–2008 · build · 5% each The 1998 nuclear tests and 1999 Kargil war triggered sustained defence modernisation, missile development and force expansion. (Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Air Power, Maritime Power)
2000–2012 · build · 5% each The Golden Quadrilateral, power-sector expansion and rural programmes sought to close infrastructure gaps that constrained growth and poverty reduction. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure)
2005–2014 · build · 5% each Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, ICDS expansion and the National Rural Health Mission prioritised education, child development and health access. (Foundational Education, Early Childhood Development, Health System Capability, Population Health, Social Infrastructure)
2014–2022 · build · 5% each Digital India, Make in India and renewable-energy expansion built digital public infrastructure, promoted manufacturing and accelerated clean power. (Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, Advanced Manufacturing, Energy Technologies, Financial Infrastructure)
2020–2026 · build · 5% each Atmanirbhar Bharat, production-linked incentives, ISRO reforms and defence indigenisation targeted strategic technology self-reliance and higher-end manufacturing. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Space Technologies, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): India's 1996 scores are especially uncertain for dual-use sectors such as nuclear and missile programmes, which were opaque before the 1998 tests. The mapping of events compresses complex episodes such as demonetisation and the COVID-19 Delta wave into the nearest library categories. Cross-domain comparisons are approximate because India combined frontier niches in space and IT with very low average human development.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

India played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 8.92 to a median of 7.32 (−1.60), with 90 per cent of simulations between 7.31 and 7.34 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 59 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 48. Its base income is 265 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,201 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Nuclear Deterrence (build, 131 credits, 10.9 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 124 credits, 10.4 per cent); Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (build, 109 credits, 9.1 per cent); Force Generation & Mobilisation (build, 106 credits, 8.8 per cent); Digital & AI Competence (build, 84 credits, 7.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 100 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.062, and the most repeated action appeared in 53 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, National Security; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Human Capital; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 11 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −31.3 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.7 points each); S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −19.9 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.52; Financial System Depth & Access −4.27; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −4.23; Monetary & Currency Capability −4.10 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.87 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.73 points); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (−0.10 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 75 (5th to 95th percentile 75 to 76), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 37; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 543 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +2.754 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 2.754 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.732: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.002 and +0.002, for example 1998 build Nuclear Deterrence (13 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.479 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-ind/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 11 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 8.92 the model ends at 7.32, where the 2026 ratings put it at 12.61. Group scores miss by 5.33 points on average, against 3.76 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.42); the change in each domain has the right sign in 0 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−6.94); furthest above: human capital (−1.27) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.732	−58.6	0.00
No shocks	+2.754	+193.1	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.002	−0.1	0.00	1998 build Nuclear Deterrence (13 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.000	+0.0	0.00	1998 build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (13 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00	1998 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (13 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.000	+0.0	0.00	1998 build Air Power (13 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	0.00	1998 build Maritime Power (13 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.479	+33.7	0.00	2020 S10 (-31.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.395	+28.4	0.00	2001 S07 (-24.0 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.275	+19.8	0.00	1999 S03 (-20.7 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	14.0	−7.3
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	16.3	−10.6
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	3.0	−20.7
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−10.3
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−19.9
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−31.3
Public service leap S18	Upside	100 per cent	20.0	+19.5

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	16.61 16.53 to 16.72	+6.32	7.11	84
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	14.31 14.27 to 14.36	+3.94	5.61	124
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	4.87	6.63 6.61 to 6.65	+1.76	2.51	131
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	11.47 11.41 to 11.49	+1.60	3.47	109
Air Power	National Security	10.19	10.88 10.83 to 10.93	+0.69	2.29	70
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	13.06 12.78 to 13.27	+0.60	2.71	106
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	5.00 4.91 to 5.09	+0.22	1.25	21
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.73	7.85 7.79 to 7.95	+0.12	2.06	45
Maritime Power	National Security	9.18	9.17 9.14 to 9.23	−0.01	1.72	46
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	10.52 10.43 to 10.59	−0.04	2.05	53
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.76	8.69 8.64 to 8.71	−0.07	1.54	22
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.99	6.88 6.84 to 6.92	−0.11	2.19	45
Foundational Education	Human Capital	8.46	8.19 8.12 to 8.25	−0.27	1.55	22
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	4.42 4.41 to 4.43	−0.32	0.37	18
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	5.80 5.76 to 5.82	−0.47	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	8.09 8.05 to 8.14	−0.52	2.29	40
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	10.82 10.69 to 10.92	−0.62	2.35	40
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.08	4.42 4.41 to 4.45	−0.66	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.45 4.43 to 4.51	−0.79	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	6.50	5.67 5.64 to 5.70	−0.83	0.22	7
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	9.12 9.03 to 9.24	−0.91	1.69	41
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.02	8.10 7.97 to 8.25	−0.92	2.04	45
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	7.36 7.34 to 7.37	−0.98	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.77	7.77 7.73 to 7.82	−1.00	0.33	18
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.40	7.39 7.37 to 7.43	−1.01	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.28	8.24 8.22 to 8.26	−1.04	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	7.21	6.15 6.12 to 6.17	−1.06	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	7.78	6.72 6.67 to 6.76	−1.06	0.73	12
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.98	6.89 6.83 to 6.93	−1.09	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	7.86	6.77 6.75 to 6.79	−1.09	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.71 6.69 to 6.74	−1.12	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.20	9.01 8.98 to 9.05	−1.19	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	8.12 8.06 to 8.18	−1.22	2.59	40
Space Operations	National Security	6.97	5.72 5.68 to 5.76	−1.25	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.47 7.45 to 7.51	−1.25	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	12.00	10.54 10.50 to 10.60	−1.46	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.16 8.13 to 8.20	−1.47	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	8.61 8.56 to 8.65	−1.49	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.57	9.08 9.05 to 9.10	−1.49	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.89	7.38 7.33 to 7.41	−1.51	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	7.57 7.48 to 7.65	−1.54	1.11	22
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	10.07	8.39 8.36 to 8.44	−1.68	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	6.98 6.91 to 7.02	−1.73	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	5.80 5.70 to 5.87	−1.81	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	8.10 8.09 to 8.11	−1.88	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.45	7.52 7.51 to 7.54	−1.93	2.13	40
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.80 7.72 to 7.85	−1.95	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.49	8.42 8.38 to 8.46	−2.07	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	6.57 6.51 to 6.67	−2.07	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.45	7.27 7.23 to 7.30	−2.18	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.86	7.68 7.53 to 7.82	−2.18	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	5.40 5.35 to 5.46	−2.24	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	6.73 6.71 to 6.75	−2.24	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	6.88 6.82 to 6.95	−2.34	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	8.76 8.59 to 8.87	−2.52	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	6.40 6.35 to 6.43	−2.56	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	5.64 5.52 to 5.76	−2.62	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.93	7.31 7.25 to 7.38	−2.62	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.37	7.70 7.65 to 7.75	−2.67	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.57	6.64 6.59 to 6.71	−2.93	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	7.23	4.29 4.25 to 4.34	−2.94	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.60	5.53 5.47 to 5.56	−3.07	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	4.70 4.65 to 4.78	−3.08	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.89	5.78 5.68 to 5.98	−3.11	0.01	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.02	4.75 4.73 to 4.79	−3.27	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.55 6.54 to 6.57	−3.39	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.53	5.11 5.05 to 5.18	−3.42	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	6.77 6.75 to 6.80	−3.46	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	5.96 5.93 to 6.05	−3.52	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	6.74 6.65 to 6.83	−3.53	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	10.35	6.16 6.05 to 6.27	−4.19	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.52	4.27 4.23 to 4.29	−4.25	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.23	4.45 4.38 to 4.55	−4.78	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 3.2e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 4.028 to 16.771
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 7.5e-09 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.00 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 59; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.062; most funded group hard.national_security.nuclear_deterrence
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 53% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 23.7% since cycle-002 (5.92 to 7.32); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 23.8% since cycle-002 (438.55 to 542.98); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-ind. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: India (IND)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Trade bloc rupture in year 2, Regional war spillover in year 3, Core disaster in year 5, Core disaster in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 17, Global funding seizure in year 20, Public service leap in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Breadbasket failure in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 265.1 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.5 seconds in all; 1940 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.