Simulation 12
Israel, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 12: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 15.14 at the 1996 position, 15.84 in 2026; 121 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 12
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 24 (median simulation), 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 15.84 (+0.70)
- From 15.14
- Rank by index
- 7
- From 11
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 15.17 +0.023 | |
| 1998 |
| 15.21 +0.044 | |
| 1999 |
| 15.28 +0.063 | |
| 2000 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.22 −0.050 |
| 2001 |
| 15.28 +0.059 | |
| 2002 |
| 15.32 +0.034 | |
| 2003 |
| 15.35 +0.034 | |
| 2004 |
| 15.39 +0.035 | |
| 2005 |
| 15.39 +0.006 | |
| 2006 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.21 −0.177 |
| 2007 |
| 15.33 +0.112 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.33 +0.004 |
| 2009 |
| 15.38 +0.044 | |
| 2010 |
| 15.41 +0.033 | |
| 2011 |
| 15.49 +0.084 | |
| 2012 |
| 15.63 +0.142 | |
| 2013 |
| 15.78 +0.149 | |
| 2014 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.74 −0.040 |
| 2015 |
| 15.78 +0.039 | |
| 2016 |
| 15.83 +0.045 | |
| 2017 |
| 15.90 +0.069 | |
| 2018 |
| 15.97 +0.071 | |
| 2019 |
| 16.02 +0.051 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicMarket access opening | 15.84 −0.175 |
| 2021 |
| 15.94 +0.092 | |
| 2022 |
| 16.03 +0.089 | |
| 2023 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.81 −0.215 |
| 2024 |
| 15.84 +0.030 | |
| 2025 |
| 15.84 +0.002 | |
| 2026 |
| 15.84 −0.002 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.172 | −165.9 | −6.00 |
| No shocks | +0.818 | +55.3 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.015 | +0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.011 | +0.6 | +0.20 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.013 | +0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.038 | +2.6 | +0.20 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.195 | +12.1 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.240 | +17.1 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.185 | +12.7 | +0.60 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.94 | 19.43 | +11.49 | +13.17 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.25 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.19 | 19.35 | +11.16 | +14.79 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.08 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.01 | 19.34 | +8.33 | +12.31 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.98 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.44 | 19.94 | +7.50 | +10.38 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.25 | 16.75 | +7.50 | +7.95 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.16 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.74 | 19.85 | +5.11 | +9.56 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.09 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 13.99 | 18.95 | +4.96 | +8.56 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.09 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 14.65 | 19.20 | +4.55 | +4.52 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.64 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.14 | 19.68 | +4.54 | +6.39 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.30 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.07 | 19.40 | +4.33 | +8.70 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.16 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.78 | 19.69 | +3.91 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.16 | 20.00 | +3.84 | +5.33 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.42 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.76 | 18.25 | +3.49 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 16.52 | 19.48 | +2.96 | +6.66 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.05 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 17.07 | 19.70 | +2.63 | +3.35 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.09 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.41 | 19.60 | +2.19 | +5.75 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 16.81 | 18.82 | +2.01 | +3.15 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.23 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 16.53 | 18.46 | +1.93 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.14 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.78 | 16.69 | +1.91 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.09 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.12 | 19.24 | +1.12 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.32 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.12 | 14.91 | +0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +1.54 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 19.13 | 19.28 | +0.15 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.64 |
| Land Power | National Security | 19.48 | 19.61 | +0.13 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.10 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +2.08 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.81 |
| Air Power | National Security | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +2.95 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +3.89 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.05 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.31 | 16.24 | −0.07 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 15.35 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.66 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 15.75 | 15.67 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.24 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.19 | 17.09 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.61 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.94 | 14.81 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.75 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 15.48 | 15.31 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.34 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.76 | 16.55 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.10 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 17.14 | 16.93 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.63 | 14.39 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.83 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.43 | 14.15 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.55 | 14.26 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.24 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.89 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.48 | 16.13 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.14 | 13.76 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.04 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 11.97 | 11.55 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.84 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.92 | 15.45 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.01 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 13.09 | 12.59 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.22 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 12.34 | 11.83 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.20 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.79 | 14.28 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.05 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.48 | −0.52 | +2.72 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.30 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 13.73 | 13.17 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.75 | 15.09 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 18.07 | 17.40 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.58 | 11.90 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.58 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 17.84 | 17.16 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.17 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.27 | 16.55 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.08 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.90 | 10.12 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.53 | 14.72 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.10 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 12.10 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.08 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.64 | 14.81 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 18.34 | 17.42 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 14.39 | 13.47 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.09 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.43 | 15.32 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.07 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.29 | 15.15 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.53 | 16.31 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.17 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 14.66 | 13.40 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.07 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 15.23 | 13.88 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.10 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.41 | 13.04 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.30 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.50 | 15.12 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.45 | 16.01 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.13 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.96 | 13.49 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.19 | 13.70 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.03 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.60 | 11.09 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.72 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.95 | 12.35 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 14.04 | 12.38 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | +0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.79 | 11.34 | −2.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.09 |
Seed 12 of experiment cycle-003.e4-isr. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.