E4 · cycle-003.e4-isr

Israel, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Israel decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 4, Regional war spillover in year 10, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Market access opening in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 27.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 15.80 (+0.66); From 15.14; 15.78 to 15.84
Rank by index: 7; From 11; 7 to 7
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2; 7 to 7
Tier rank: 2; From 9; 2 to 2

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	15.14	15.78	15.80	15.84	higher
Rank by index	11	7	7	7	lower
Tier rank	9	2	2	2	lower
Domains at Tier 1	2	7	7	7	higher
Score sum	1107.1	1164.0	1165.9	1167.9	higher
Goal-weighted score	1107.1	1164.0	1165.9	1167.9	higher
Resilient score	1107.1	1166.0 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 73 per cent, buy took 6 per cent, partner took 21 per cent of the 6,592 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Israel actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 15.14; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 14.46; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 15.80; 15.72 to 15.91
Skill against persistence: −0.48; group error 2.12 against 1.43 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	12.78	14.75	15.86 15.8–15.9	+1.11	right
Strategic Infrastructure	14.06	13.84	16.34 16.2–16.5	+2.50	wrong
National Security	18.63	16.21	18.17 18.1–18.2	+1.96	right
Human Capital	15.43	15.02	16.51 16.5–16.6	+1.50	wrong
Information & Influence	14.40	13.12	14.20 14.1–14.3	+1.08	wrong
Governance & Integrity	15.26	14.29	15.78 15.8–15.8	+1.48	wrong
Financial Strength	15.07	14.03	15.65 15.6–15.7	+1.62	wrong
Production & Innovation	15.57	14.89	15.28 15.2–15.4	+0.38	right
Trade & Investment	15.11	13.94	14.44 14.3–14.8	+0.50	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2000 · S02 × 0.6 The dot-com crash froze venture funding and triggered a high-tech recession, though no systemic banking crisis followed.
2006 · S03 × 0.8 The Second Lebanon War brought sustained Hezbollah rocket fire on northern Israel and disrupted the economy for over a month.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis cut exports and overseas demand but Israel's banks and public finances remained broadly stable.
2014 · S03 × 0.6 Operation Protective Edge brought Gazan rocket fire and brief economic disruption, though Iron Dome limited damage.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 The COVID-19 pandemic forced repeated lockdowns and strained health services before Israel rolled out one of the fastest vaccination campaigns in the world.
2020 · S12 × 0.4 The Abraham Accords normalised relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, opening new trade, tourism and security cooperation.
2023 · S03 × 1.3 The Hamas-led attack on 7 October and the ensuing Gaza, Lebanon and Iran conflict caused the worst single-day loss of life since 1948, mass mobilisation and severe economic disruption.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 2% each Yozma and the dot-com boom drove venture capital, chip design and communications start-ups while large-scale Russian immigration required technical retraining. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Innovation & Commercialisation, Technical & Vocational Skills)
2001–2005 · build · 5% each The Second Intifada and terrorist wave forced heavy spending on internal security, intelligence, and the West Bank barrier while keeping the high-tech sector afloat. (Land Power, Intelligence & Assessment, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Internal Security & Order, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2006–2010 · build · 5% each The 2006 Lebanon War exposed rocket threats and triggered investment in Iron Dome and Arrow while macroeconomic reforms and export promotion preserved fiscal stability. (Air Power, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2010–2015 · partner · 5% each Offshore natural gas discoveries at Tamar and Leviathan and national desalination projects shifted resources into energy and water security while the Israel Cyber Initiative expanded cyber capacity. (Energy Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure, Energy Technologies, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies)
2015–2020 · build · 2% each The Innovation Authority and defence modernisation prioritised AI, autonomous systems and cyber exports while the Abraham Accords and new Asian markets broadened trade relationships. (Artificial Intelligence, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, Alliances & Security Cooperation, Trade Policy & Market Access, Digital & Services Trade)
2020–2022 · build · 5% each COVID-19 triggered mass vaccination, digital health certificates and remote public services, strengthening biotech and national crisis response. (Health System Capability, Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Digital & AI Competence)
2023–2026 · buy · 5% each The 7 October 2023 attack and multi-front war forced a surge in munitions production, missile defence and reserve mobilisation, supplemented by large US security assistance. (Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Air Power, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, Intelligence & Assessment)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Scores for nuclear deterrence and intelligence are necessarily judgemental because of official opacity; the 1996 baseline for quantum and AI is uncertain because these fields were nascent and poorly measured. The mapping of repeated Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Hezbollah wars onto the event library's S03 regional-war spillover is an approximation, since no library event captures chronic asymmetric conflict.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Israel played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 15.14 to a median of 15.80 (+0.66), with 90 per cent of simulations between 15.78 and 15.85 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 11 on the index against the frozen field, holds 2 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 9. Its base income is 1,433 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 6,587 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Energy Infrastructure (partner, 446 credits, 6.8 per cent); Resource Infrastructure (partner, 387 credits, 5.9 per cent); Financial Regulation & Integrity (build, 358 credits, 5.4 per cent); Strategic Strike & Missile Defence (build, 358 credits, 5.4 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 358 credits, 5.4 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 73 per cent, partner 21 per cent, buy 6 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.052, and the most repeated action appeared in 20 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Production & Innovation; rounds 6 to 10, National Security; rounds 11 to 15, National Security; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −18.6 points each); S03 (90 firings in 30 simulations, −15.4 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −6.4 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.74; Economic Leverage & Dependence −2.43; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.29; Labour & Employment −1.83 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.99 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.91 points); Artificial Intelligence to Robotics & Autonomous Systems (+1.09 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 7 (5th to 95th percentile 7 to 7), the median count of Tier 1 domains 7 (7 to 7) and the median tier rank 2; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,166 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: financial strength (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); human capital (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.817 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.817 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −2.172: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and +0.038, for example 2022 build Health System Capability (79 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.240 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

move_without_shock (warn): largest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 4.45 points; 100% of simulations have one above 3.

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 2 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-isr/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 4) ends +0.05 from it, with 6 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 15.14 the model ends at 15.80, where the 2026 ratings put it at 14.46. Group scores miss by 2.12 points on average, against 1.43 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.48); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (+0.38); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+2.50) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−2.172	−165.9	−6.00
No shocks	+0.818	+55.3	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.000	+0.2	0.00	2022 build Health System Capability (79 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.015	+0.7	0.00	2015 partner Energy Infrastructure (78 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.011	+0.6	+0.20	2014 partner Energy Infrastructure (78 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.013	+0.6	0.00	2014 partner Resource Infrastructure (78 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.038	+2.6	+0.20	2012 partner Energy Infrastructure (78 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.195	+12.1	+1.00	2020 S10 (-18.6 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.240	+17.1	+1.00	2023 S03 (-18.5 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.185	+12.7	+0.60	2006 S03 (-18.0 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	8.0	−6.4
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	18.3	−15.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−18.6
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	24.0	+11.6

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	7.94	19.43 19.42 to 19.43	+11.49	12.77	280
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.19	19.35 19.34 to 19.35	+11.16	14.76	387
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.01	19.35 19.34 to 19.36	+8.34	12.35	446
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	12.44	19.94 19.93 to 19.94	+7.50	10.38	115
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	16.75 16.73 to 16.77	+7.50	7.95	155
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.74	19.86 19.85 to 19.88	+5.12	9.56	354
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	13.99	18.93 18.88 to 18.99	+4.94	8.54	358
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	14.65	19.58 19.20 to 19.90	+4.93	4.36	147
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.14	19.67 19.65 to 19.69	+4.53	6.08	207
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.07	19.40 19.38 to 19.45	+4.33	8.70	358
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	15.78	19.69 19.68 to 19.69	+3.91	4.66	147
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.16	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+3.84	5.17	157
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	14.76	18.09 17.83 to 18.25	+3.33	4.21	116
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	16.52	19.48 19.47 to 19.48	+2.96	6.66	358
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	17.07	19.36 19.03 to 19.68	+2.29	3.04	97
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	17.41	19.59 19.57 to 19.61	+2.18	5.75	354
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	16.81	18.87 18.82 to 18.91	+2.06	3.15	115
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.78	16.66 16.63 to 16.69	+1.88	2.41	115
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.12	19.26 19.13 to 19.39	+1.14	1.75	115
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	14.12	14.90 14.65 to 15.40	+0.78	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	19.13	19.48 19.18 to 19.63	+0.35	0.20	21
Land Power	National Security	19.48	19.66 19.62 to 19.73	+0.18	2.16	354
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.94	15.00 14.68 to 15.10	+0.06	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	20.00	20.00 19.85 to 20.00	0.00	2.08	354
Air Power	National Security	20.00	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	0.00	2.90	475
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	0.00	3.83	619
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.43	15.35 15.20 to 15.50	−0.08	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.19	17.11 16.89 to 17.28	−0.08	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	17.14	17.04 16.95 to 17.11	−0.10	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	16.76	16.64 16.57 to 16.73	−0.12	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.63	14.51 14.27 to 14.77	−0.12	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	15.75	15.60 15.56 to 15.67	−0.15	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	15.48	15.33 15.27 to 15.40	−0.15	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.43	14.14 14.14 to 14.15	−0.29	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.90 4.89 to 4.92	−0.34	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.48	16.13 16.10 to 16.14	−0.35	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.31	15.95 15.83 to 16.16	−0.36	0.45	11
Foundational Education	Human Capital	14.55	14.18 14.12 to 14.26	−0.37	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.14	13.76 13.75 to 13.77	−0.38	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	12.34	11.86 11.76 to 11.98	−0.48	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.92	15.44 15.44 to 15.45	−0.48	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.50	15.01 15.00 to 15.02	−0.49	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	14.29 14.28 to 14.30	−0.50	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	11.97	11.46 11.22 to 11.65	−0.51	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	13.09	12.57 12.47 to 12.62	−0.52	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	20.00	19.47 19.46 to 19.48	−0.53	2.72	354
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	13.73	13.17 13.16 to 13.19	−0.56	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	17.84	17.22 17.08 to 17.39	−0.62	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	15.75	15.09 15.07 to 15.10	−0.66	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	18.07	17.40 17.40 to 17.40	−0.67	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.27	16.55 16.53 to 16.57	−0.72	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	16.53	15.78 15.33 to 17.83	−0.75	0.97	21
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.64	14.88 14.81 to 14.92	−0.76	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.90	10.13 10.12 to 10.14	−0.77	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.58	11.80 11.64 to 11.96	−0.78	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	14.39	13.61 13.48 to 13.67	−0.78	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.91	12.12 12.10 to 12.14	−0.79	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	15.53	14.73 14.69 to 14.83	−0.80	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	18.34	17.42 17.38 to 17.45	−0.92	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.43	15.30 15.27 to 15.32	−1.13	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.29	15.13 15.11 to 15.15	−1.16	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.53	16.33 16.24 to 16.43	−1.20	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	15.23	14.02 13.88 to 14.12	−1.21	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	14.66	13.41 13.37 to 13.47	−1.25	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.41	13.16 12.90 to 13.29	−1.25	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.45	16.05 15.99 to 16.12	−1.40	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.96	13.54 13.50 to 13.59	−1.42	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.50	15.04 14.97 to 15.11	−1.46	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.19	13.70 13.70 to 13.71	−1.49	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.95	12.42 12.35 to 12.55	−1.53	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	14.04	12.39 12.38 to 12.41	−1.65	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.60	10.89 10.66 to 11.09	−1.71	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.79	11.31 11.28 to 11.35	−2.48	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 3.4e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 4.887 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
warnmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 4.45 points; 100% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 11; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 2 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.052; most funded group hard.national_security.strategic_strike_and_missile_defence
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 20% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 1.3% since cycle-002 (16.01 to 15.80); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 1.2% since cycle-002 (1180.26 to 1165.87); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-isr. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Israel (ISR)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 4, Regional war spillover in year 10, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Market access opening in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 1,433.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.2 seconds in all; 1501 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.