Simulation 16
Japan, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 16: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 16.49 at the 1996 position, 17.05 in 2026; 149 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 16
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 6 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 29 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 17.05 (+0.56)
- From 16.49
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 7
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.42 −0.065 |
| 1998 |
| 16.58 +0.157 | |
| 1999 |
| 16.74 +0.165 | |
| 2000 |
| 16.82 +0.078 | |
| 2001 |
| 16.92 +0.100 | |
| 2002 |
| 16.97 +0.053 | |
| 2003 |
| 17.01 +0.040 | |
| 2004 |
| 17.05 +0.034 | |
| 2005 |
| 17.06 +0.015 | |
| 2006 |
| 17.11 +0.053 | |
| 2007 |
| 17.17 +0.059 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.17 −0.005 |
| 2009 |
| 17.19 +0.020 | |
| 2010 |
| 17.20 +0.013 | |
| 2011 |
| Core disaster | 16.93 −0.274 |
| 2012 | No actions | 16.92 −0.004 | |
| 2013 |
| 17.04 +0.115 | |
| 2014 |
| 17.16 +0.125 | |
| 2015 |
| 17.17 +0.009 | |
| 2016 |
| 17.17 −0.001 | |
| 2017 |
| 17.17 +0.002 | |
| 2018 |
| 17.18 +0.002 | |
| 2019 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.15 −0.029 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 16.89 −0.255 |
| 2021 |
| 16.91 +0.022 | |
| 2022 |
| 17.01 +0.097 | |
| 2023 |
| 17.03 +0.024 | |
| 2024 |
| 17.04 +0.005 | |
| 2025 |
| 17.04 +0.005 | |
| 2026 |
| 17.05 +0.006 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.815 | −123.8 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +0.420 | +28.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.002 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.136 | +8.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.181 | +12.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.071 | +4.8 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 19.99 | +5.63 | +14.74 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.06 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.93 | 19.37 | +5.44 | +12.32 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.53 | 19.97 | +5.44 | +9.27 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.13 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 15.08 | 20.00 | +4.92 | +11.54 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.27 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 16.18 | 19.98 | +3.80 | +10.81 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.12 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 15.40 | 19.17 | +3.77 | +9.63 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.45 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 16.13 | 19.45 | +3.32 | +7.63 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.39 | 18.62 | +3.23 | +3.79 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.09 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.90 | 19.70 | +2.80 | +10.62 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.19 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.93 | 19.60 | +2.67 | +15.51 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.16 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 14.42 | +2.62 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.17 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 20.00 | +2.33 | +10.18 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.50 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.36 | 19.51 | +2.15 | +8.33 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.07 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 17.92 | 20.00 | +2.08 | +11.34 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.18 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 14.23 | +1.96 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.30 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 18.91 | +1.81 | +7.20 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.96 | 19.65 | +1.69 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +0.33 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 9.87 | 11.51 | +1.64 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.03 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 18.48 | 20.00 | +1.52 | +8.51 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.08 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 18.68 | 20.00 | +1.32 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 18.43 | 19.67 | +1.24 | +6.07 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.38 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.16 | 19.32 | +1.16 | +8.50 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.35 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.61 | 15.68 | +1.07 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 15.86 | 16.83 | +0.97 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 17.45 | 18.31 | +0.86 | +1.13 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.78 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 19.42 | 20.00 | +0.58 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.43 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.41 | 17.81 | +0.40 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.18 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 18.28 | 18.57 | +0.29 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.28 | 11.53 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.67 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.97 | 18.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +1.15 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.70 | 16.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.66 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.93 | 0.89 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.80 | 17.72 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.43 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.76 | 18.61 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.82 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.32 | 17.04 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.51 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.06 | 15.77 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.27 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 19.65 | −0.35 | +4.23 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.58 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 11.07 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.58 | −0.42 | +3.90 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.11 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 12.57 | 12.14 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 17.08 | 16.65 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.11 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.56 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 11.76 | 11.31 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 18.53 | 18.08 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.05 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.91 | 16.43 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.77 | 17.28 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.23 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.48 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.03 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.71 | 19.14 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.71 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.15 | 14.58 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.03 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.72 | 16.15 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.02 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.53 | 14.95 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 17.73 | 17.14 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.05 | 15.46 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.06 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 18.48 | 17.86 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.26 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 18.20 | 17.58 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.08 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.63 | 15.99 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.31 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.48 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.66 | 13.95 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.03 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 15.61 | 14.86 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.64 | 15.88 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.24 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 12.29 | 11.51 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.14 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.29 | 11.44 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.15 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 16.31 | 15.38 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.86 | 14.89 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.05 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 18.14 | 17.03 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 19.07 | 17.92 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.15 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 17.31 | 16.02 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 19.80 | 18.39 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.10 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.09 | 12.51 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.05 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 18.93 | 17.34 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.14 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 18.92 | 17.32 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.27 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.31 | 16.39 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.03 |
Seed 16 of experiment cycle-003.e4-jpn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.