E4 · cycle-003.e4-jpn

Japan, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Japan decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 15, Trade bloc rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 17.05 (+0.56); From 16.49; 17.04 to 17.06
Rank by index: 2; From 3; 2 to 2
Domains at Tier 1: 8; From 7; 8 to 8
Tier rank: 2; From 2; 2 to 2

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	16.49	17.04	17.05	17.06	higher
Rank by index	3	2	2	2	lower
Tier rank	2	2	2	2	lower
Domains at Tier 1	7	8	8	8	higher
Score sum	1198.9	1235.2	1235.8	1236.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	1198.9	1235.2	1235.8	1236.6	higher
Resilient score	1198.9	1235.8 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 98 per cent, buy took 2 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 13,325 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Japan actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 16.49; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 16.26; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 17.05; 17.00 to 17.10
Skill against persistence: −0.26; group error 1.65 against 1.31 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	18.61	17.13	19.00 19.0–19.0	+1.87	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	17.14	16.77	16.97 16.9–17.1	+0.20	wrong
National Security	11.24	13.27	11.90 11.8–12.1	−1.37	right
Human Capital	17.49	16.58	17.86 17.8–17.9	+1.28	wrong
Information & Influence	16.12	15.83	15.32 15.3–15.3	−0.51	right
Governance & Integrity	16.65	15.83	16.93 16.9–17.0	+1.10	wrong
Financial Strength	16.26	17.01	19.22 19.2–19.2	+2.21	right
Production & Innovation	17.61	16.64	18.47 18.5–18.5	+1.83	wrong
Trade & Investment	17.26	17.27	17.74 17.7–17.8	+0.47	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.7 The Asian financial crisis and the failures of Yamaichi Securities and Hokkaido Takushoku Bank deepened Japan's own post-bubble banking crisis and credit contraction.
2008 · S02 × 0.5 The global financial crisis hit Japan mainly through a collapse in exports and a sharp recession, though its banks were less exposed than in 1997.
2011 · S07 × 1 The Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident disabled a large part of eastern Japan's industrial and energy core.
2019 · S01 × 0.4 US-China technology decoupling and Japan's own export controls on semiconductor materials to South Korea heightened trade-bloc and supply-chain disruption.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic caused repeated states of emergency, border closure and a large demand and supply shock, though Japan avoided the worst mortality.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · build · 5% each Prime Minister Hashimoto's 'Big Bang' deregulation, bank recapitalisation and creation of the Financial Supervisory Agency sought to clean up the post-bubble financial system. (Financial Regulation & Integrity, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Financial System Depth & Access, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2000–2005 · build · 5% each The e-Japan strategy aimed to make Japan the world's most advanced information technology nation through broadband rollout and digital skills. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Digital & AI Competence, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation)
2001–2006 · build · 5% each Koizumi's structural reforms pursued privatisation, bad-loan resolution and administrative streamlining to revive competition and growth. (Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Labour & Employment, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial Regulation & Integrity)
2006–2011 · build · 5% each The Third Science and Technology Basic Plan prioritised life sciences, information technology, environmental technology and nanotechnology/materials. (Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Innovation & Commercialisation, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Energy Technologies, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing)
2013–2020 · build · 5% each Abenomics used monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms, while pursuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership to open markets. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Labour & Employment, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2013–2020 · buy · 2% each The 2013 National Security Strategy and 2015 security legislation expanded the Self-Defense Forces' role and procurement, especially in maritime, air and missile defence. (Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, Maritime Power, Air Power, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations)
2018–2026 · build · 5% each Economic security legislation and semiconductor subsidies sought to rebuild domestic chip production, AI capability and resilient digital supply chains. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Economic Leverage & Dependence, Digital & Services Trade, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation)
2020–2023 · build · 2% each The COVID-19 response and subsequent digital agency reforms prioritised public health, crisis management and accelerated digital government. (Health System Capability, Population Health, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Digital & AI Competence, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties are Japan's latent military-industrial potential relative to formal constitutional limits, and how much 1996 financial fragility should lower scores for financial regulation and fiscal capacity. Some civilian technology scores are also compressed by Japan's world-leading commercial strengths but weaker software and services.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Japan played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 16.49 to a median of 17.05 (+0.56), with 90 per cent of simulations between 17.04 and 17.06 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 3 on the index against the frozen field, holds 7 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 2. Its base income is 1,841 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 13,301 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 1,209 credits, 9.1 per cent); Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (build, 1,189 credits, 8.9 per cent); Labour & Employment (build, 809 credits, 6.1 per cent); Monetary & Currency Capability (build, 808 credits, 6.1 per cent); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (build, 631 credits, 4.7 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 98 per cent, buy 2 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.051, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Human Capital; rounds 11 to 15, Critical Technology; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, Financial Strength; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.0 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −17.2 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −7.1 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.95; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −1.67; Investment Attraction & Projection −1.63; Financial System Depth & Access −1.45 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+1.15 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (+0.83 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure (+0.62 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 2 (5th to 95th percentile 2 to 2), the median count of Tier 1 domains 8 (8 to 8) and the median tier rank 2; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,236 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: critical technology (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.420 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.420 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.815: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and +0.002, for example 2009 build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (103 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.181 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

move_without_shock (warn): largest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 4.03 points; 100% of simulations have one above 3.

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 5 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-jpn/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 11) ends −0.02 from it, with 5 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 16.49 the model ends at 17.05, where the 2026 ratings put it at 16.26. Group scores miss by 1.65 points on average, against 1.31 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.26); the change in each domain has the right sign in 33 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: national security (−1.37); furthest above: financial strength (+2.21) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.815	−123.8	−4.00
No shocks	+0.420	+28.5	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.002	+0.2	0.00	2009 build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (103 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.002	+0.2	0.00	2009 build Innovation & Commercialisation (103 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.002	+0.2	0.00	2009 build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing (103 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.000	+0.0	0.00	2008 build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (103 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.000	+0.0	0.00	2008 build Innovation & Commercialisation (103 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.136	+8.5	0.00	2011 S07 (-20.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.181	+12.6	0.00	2020 S10 (-17.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.071	+4.8	0.00	1997 S02 (-9.5 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−6.9
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−7.1
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	15.0	−20.0
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−17.2

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	19.99 19.99 to 19.99	+5.63	14.71	1,209
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	13.93	19.37 19.36 to 19.37	+5.44	12.32	549
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.53	19.97 19.96 to 19.98	+5.44	9.28	599
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.08	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+4.92	11.55	510
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	16.18	19.98 19.98 to 19.98	+3.80	10.83	809
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	15.40	19.18 19.16 to 19.20	+3.78	9.64	476
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	16.13	19.46 19.43 to 19.47	+3.33	7.63	200
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.39	18.67 18.65 to 18.68	+3.28	3.79	103
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.90	19.70 19.69 to 19.71	+2.80	10.62	610
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.93	19.60 19.58 to 19.61	+2.67	15.51	610
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.33	10.26	808
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.36	19.51 19.49 to 19.53	+2.15	8.33	610
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	13.90 13.40 to 15.01	+2.10	2.62	59
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	17.92	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.08	11.34	1,189
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.27	14.19 14.14 to 14.24	+1.92	2.10	40
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.10	18.90 18.90 to 18.91	+1.80	7.20	476
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	17.96	19.65 19.64 to 19.66	+1.69	3.35	249
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	11.51 11.51 to 11.52	+1.64	2.12	40
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	18.48	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+1.52	8.54	579
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	18.68	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+1.32	3.63	631
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	18.43	19.67 19.62 to 19.73	+1.24	6.07	579
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.16	19.32 19.30 to 19.33	+1.16	8.51	610
Air Power	National Security	14.61	15.67 15.66 to 15.69	+1.06	1.49	40
Maritime Power	National Security	15.86	16.83 16.81 to 17.09	+0.97	1.41	42
Health System Capability	Human Capital	17.45	18.22 18.09 to 18.34	+0.77	1.20	35
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	19.42	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+0.58	4.25	579
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	17.41	17.83 17.73 to 18.01	+0.42	0.97	28
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.97	18.26 17.86 to 18.39	+0.29	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	18.28	18.56 18.54 to 18.58	+0.28	1.05	35
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.28	11.46 11.29 to 11.62	+0.18	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	17.80	17.79 17.61 to 17.87	−0.01	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.93	0.90 0.90 to 0.91	−0.03	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.70	16.58 16.40 to 16.78	−0.12	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.32	17.16 17.01 to 17.31	−0.16	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.76	18.49 18.27 to 18.73	−0.27	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	20.00	19.65 19.65 to 19.66	−0.35	4.23	513
Advanced Education	Human Capital	16.06	15.69 15.62 to 15.77	−0.37	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	17.08	16.68 16.63 to 16.73	−0.40	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	11.47	11.06 11.03 to 11.08	−0.41	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	18.53	18.12 18.07 to 18.17	−0.41	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	20.00	19.57 19.56 to 19.58	−0.43	3.87	507
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	12.57	12.14 12.14 to 12.15	−0.43	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	11.76	11.29 11.27 to 11.31	−0.47	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	20.00	19.52 19.48 to 19.56	−0.48	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	20.00	19.52 19.49 to 19.54	−0.48	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	16.91	16.43 16.41 to 16.46	−0.48	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.77	17.29 17.23 to 17.37	−0.48	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.72	16.16 16.15 to 16.17	−0.56	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.53	14.96 14.95 to 14.97	−0.57	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	19.71	19.14 19.13 to 19.14	−0.57	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.05	15.48 15.47 to 15.49	−0.57	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	17.73	17.15 17.13 to 17.16	−0.58	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.15	14.56 14.55 to 14.58	−0.59	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	18.48	17.86 17.79 to 17.94	−0.62	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	18.20	17.58 17.56 to 17.61	−0.62	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.63	15.97 15.93 to 16.01	−0.66	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	20.00	19.30 19.26 to 19.33	−0.70	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.66	13.95 13.92 to 13.97	−0.71	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	15.61	14.88 14.83 to 14.95	−0.73	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.64	15.91 15.87 to 16.00	−0.73	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.29	11.51 11.51 to 11.52	−0.78	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	19.21 19.18 to 19.24	−0.79	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.29	11.46 11.42 to 11.51	−0.83	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	16.31	15.38 15.36 to 15.41	−0.93	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.86	14.87 14.84 to 14.89	−0.99	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	19.07	17.91 17.88 to 17.94	−1.16	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	18.14	16.97 16.95 to 17.01	−1.17	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	17.31	16.04 16.02 to 16.07	−1.27	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	19.80	18.48 18.40 to 18.52	−1.32	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	18.93	17.36 17.33 to 17.40	−1.57	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	18.92	17.34 17.31 to 17.39	−1.58	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.09	12.50 12.47 to 12.53	−1.59	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	18.31	16.43 16.37 to 16.45	−1.88	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.892 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
warnmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 4.03 points; 100% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 1 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 3; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 5 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.051; most funded group economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 0.2% since cycle-002 (17.08 to 17.05); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 0.3% since cycle-002 (1238.96 to 1235.82); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-jpn. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Japan (JPN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 15, Trade bloc rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 1,841.2 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.8 seconds in all; 1801 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.