E4 · cycle-003.e4-kaz

Kazakhstan, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Kazakhstan decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 19, Market access opening in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24, Legitimacy rupture in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.11 (−0.33); From 7.45; 7.11 to 7.12
Rank by index: 80; From 74; 80 to 80
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 35; From 65; 35 to 35

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.45	7.11	7.11	7.12	higher
Rank by index	74	80	80	80	lower
Tier rank	65	35	35	35	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	539.7	520.4	520.8	521.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	539.7	520.4	520.8	521.1	higher
Resilient score	539.7	520.8 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 57 per cent, buy took 16 per cent, partner took 27 per cent of the 1,167 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Kazakhstan actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 7.45; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 8.14; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 7.11; 7.08 to 7.14
Skill against persistence: −0.71; group error 1.66 against 0.97 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	4.19	3.50	3.95 3.9–4.0	+0.46	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	9.47	10.06	10.61 10.6–10.7	+0.55	right
National Security	5.94	6.08	5.24 5.2–5.3	−0.84	wrong
Human Capital	9.59	10.02	9.34 9.3–9.4	−0.68	wrong
Information & Influence	7.08	8.23	5.71 5.7–5.7	−2.52	wrong
Governance & Integrity	7.55	8.44	7.10 7.1–7.1	−1.34	wrong
Financial Strength	7.88	9.70	6.83 6.8–6.9	−2.86	wrong
Production & Innovation	7.54	8.45	7.80 7.8–7.8	−0.66	right
Trade & Investment	7.77	8.81	7.44 7.4–7.5	−1.37	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1998 · S02 × 0.6 The Russian default and commodity price fall spilled into Kazakhstan, ending the early stabilisation and forcing a tenge devaluation.
2008 · S02 × 0.8 The global financial crisis froze wholesale funding for Kazakh banks, bursting the property bubble and requiring state recapitalisation.
2015 · S02 × 0.7 The oil price collapse and Russia's crisis triggered capital outflows, a tenge float and recession.
2015 · S12 × 0.5 WTO accession formalised market access and trade rules, though commodity dependence limited immediate gains.
2020 · S10 × 0.9 COVID-19 pandemic and the oil demand shock strained the health system and fiscal buffers.
2022 · S05 × 0.7 January protests over fuel prices escalated into deadly unrest, prompting a CSTO intervention.
2022 · S01 × 0.6 Russia's war on Ukraine and sanctions disrupted regional trade, logistics and financial channels.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2003 · partner · 5% each The Kazakhstan 2030 strategy opened oil and gas to foreign partners, stabilised money and rebuilt fiscal capacity. (Resource Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Investment Attraction & Projection)
2000–2007 · build · 2% each Oil export pipelines and the National Fund converted hydrocarbon revenue into reserves while banking expanded. (Resource Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Financial System Depth & Access, Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2008–2015 · build · 2% each State industrialisation and WTO accession aimed to diversify away from raw materials. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Advanced Manufacturing, Trade Policy & Market Access, Structural Transformation & Complexity, Transport Infrastructure)
2014–2020 · build · 5% each The Nurly Zhol infrastructure programme and digital government became flagship modernisation efforts. (Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Energy Infrastructure)
2017–2026 · buy · 2% each Digital Kazakhstan and AI strategies sought to import skills and build an innovation economy. (Digital & AI Competence, Artificial Intelligence, Innovation & Commercialisation, Advanced Education, Digital & Services Trade)
2020–2023 · build · 2% each COVID-19 forced emergency investment in health and crisis management. (Health System Capability, Population Health, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The largest uncertainty is the true level of Soviet legacy capability, especially in heavy industry, space-related infrastructure and human capital, which may be understated. Oil and gas revenue pathways are well documented, but informal governance and corruption make fiscal and institutional scores harder to pin down.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Kazakhstan played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 7.45 to a median of 7.11 (−0.33), with 90 per cent of simulations between 7.11 and 7.12 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 74 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 65. Its base income is 183 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,167 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Transport Infrastructure (build, 123 credits, 10.5 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 71 credits, 6.1 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 71 credits, 6.1 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (build, 71 credits, 6.1 per cent); Technology Adoption & Diffusion (build, 71 credits, 6.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 57 per cent, partner 27 per cent, buy 16 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.060, and the most repeated action appeared in 70 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Human Capital [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −29.1 points each); S05 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.3 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −16.2 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.03; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.94; Investment Attraction & Projection −3.37; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.32 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.05 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.04 points); Investment Attraction & Projection to Resource Infrastructure (+0.30 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 80 (5th to 95th percentile 80 to 80), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 35; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 521 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.590 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.590 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.047: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.012 and −0.005, for example 2018 build Transport Infrastructure (10 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.461 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

same_action (warn): the most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 70% of rounds.

retired_words (warn): e4-kaz/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 30) ends +0.01 from it, with 6 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 7.45 the model ends at 7.11, where the 2026 ratings put it at 8.14. Group scores miss by 1.66 points on average, against 0.97 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.71); the change in each domain has the right sign in 22 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−2.86); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+0.55) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.047	−75.6
No shocks	+1.590	+109.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	2018 build Transport Infrastructure (10 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.009	−0.7	2018 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (10 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.008	−0.6	2018 build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (10 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.011	−0.7	2018 build Technology Adoption & Diffusion (10 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	2018 build Energy Infrastructure (10 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.461	+32.2	2020 S10 (-29.1 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.323	+22.5	2022 S05 (-20.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.259	+17.6	2022 S01 (-16.2 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−16.3
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	11.0	−8.8
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−20.3
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−29.1
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	19.0	+6.3

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.60	13.45 13.43 to 13.46	+4.85	5.67	137
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	13.75 13.71 to 13.79	+3.94	4.58	123
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	11.61 11.53 to 11.67	+3.84	4.91	71
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.55	13.19 13.08 to 13.27	+3.64	4.19	94
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.07	9.37 9.34 to 9.39	+3.30	4.48	37
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.67	12.64 12.61 to 12.65	+2.97	3.65	71
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	7.59	9.84 9.83 to 9.86	+2.25	5.48	57
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.05	11.73 11.71 to 11.74	+1.68	3.29	71
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.40	10.90 10.84 to 11.00	+1.50	2.05	37
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	8.08 8.06 to 8.10	+1.41	2.67	37
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	9.21 9.15 to 9.27	+1.00	2.47	37
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	11.03 11.02 to 11.05	+0.93	1.70	37
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	10.23 10.09 to 10.37	+0.86	1.32	33
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.71	8.25 8.21 to 8.26	+0.54	1.96	33
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.16	9.69 9.57 to 9.82	+0.53	1.89	33
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	8.40 8.36 to 8.42	+0.09	4.07	66
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.14	8.21 8.18 to 8.24	+0.07	2.19	33
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.31 0.31 to 0.32	−0.05	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	8.32 8.30 to 8.34	−0.16	0.89	15
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.39	1.18 1.17 to 1.18	−0.21	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.06	5.82 5.81 to 5.85	−0.24	1.08	17
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	8.86	8.62 8.59 to 8.64	−0.24	0.84	15
Maritime Power	National Security	2.50	2.20 2.20 to 2.21	−0.30	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	6.50	6.14 6.12 to 6.15	−0.36	1.26	17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	3.56 3.51 to 3.60	−0.39	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.73	3.23 3.22 to 3.26	−0.50	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	2.93 2.93 to 2.94	−0.51	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	3.43	2.90 2.89 to 2.91	−0.53	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	3.49 3.48 to 3.51	−0.55	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.58	4.01 3.98 to 4.01	−0.57	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.63	9.03 9.01 to 9.04	−0.60	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	7.63 7.61 to 7.66	−0.62	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	8.65 8.62 to 8.66	−0.64	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.07	9.43 9.40 to 9.45	−0.64	0.69	15
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.17	6.50 6.47 to 6.52	−0.67	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	5.03 5.00 to 5.04	−0.67	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	4.00 3.99 to 4.01	−0.69	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.66	6.94 6.89 to 6.98	−0.72	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	5.51	4.79 4.77 to 4.79	−0.72	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.40	7.68 7.66 to 7.70	−0.72	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.49	7.77 7.73 to 7.82	−0.72	3.44	66
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.20	6.47 6.46 to 6.48	−0.73	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	6.64 6.62 to 6.65	−0.76	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	6.16 6.14 to 6.18	−0.78	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.71	8.93 8.90 to 8.96	−0.78	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	6.88	6.09 6.08 to 6.10	−0.79	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.15	5.36 5.35 to 5.36	−0.79	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	3.75 3.73 to 3.77	−0.87	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	6.67	5.80 5.79 to 5.81	−0.87	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	9.97 9.94 to 10.00	−0.89	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.44	4.50 4.49 to 4.51	−0.94	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	9.08 9.07 to 9.11	−0.95	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	8.26	7.29 7.25 to 7.31	−0.97	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.80	5.70 5.69 to 5.71	−1.10	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	9.13 9.10 to 9.16	−1.12	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.55	7.40 7.37 to 7.42	−1.15	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.94	8.76 8.74 to 8.80	−1.18	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	7.92	6.73 6.72 to 6.73	−1.19	0.94	17
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	6.79	5.60 5.57 to 5.63	−1.19	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.66	6.40 6.40 to 6.41	−1.26	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.65	8.34 8.32 to 8.38	−1.31	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.73	4.39 4.38 to 4.39	−1.34	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	7.47	6.11 6.08 to 6.20	−1.36	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.32	7.85 7.82 to 7.87	−1.47	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	5.83 5.81 to 5.85	−1.55	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.52	6.92 6.82 to 7.04	−1.60	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.02	7.41 7.38 to 7.45	−1.61	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.18	5.47 5.45 to 5.52	−1.71	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.00	5.17 5.15 to 5.20	−1.83	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.25	6.29 6.27 to 6.32	−1.96	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	7.23	5.24 5.22 to 5.26	−1.99	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.38	6.29 6.28 to 6.30	−2.09	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.14	5.98 5.92 to 6.03	−2.16	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.0e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.309 to 14.319
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.92 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 74; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.060; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
warnsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 70% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 9.8% since cycle-002 (6.48 to 7.11); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 9.4% since cycle-002 (475.85 to 520.78); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-kaz. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Kazakhstan (KAZ)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 2, Global funding seizure in year 12, Global funding seizure in year 19, Market access opening in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24, Legitimacy rupture in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 183.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.4 seconds in all; 1458 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.