Simulation 7
Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 7: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.31 at the 1996 position, 5.61 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 7
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 5.61 (−1.71)
- From 7.31
- Rank by index
- 108
- From 77
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 9 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Breadbasket failure | 7.12 −0.196 |
| 1998 |
| 7.13 +0.009 | |
| 1999 |
| 7.13 +0.009 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.14 +0.010 | |
| 2001 |
| 7.16 +0.011 | |
| 2002 |
| 7.17 +0.011 | |
| 2003 |
| 7.18 +0.016 | |
| 2004 |
| 7.20 +0.018 | |
| 2005 |
| 7.23 +0.024 | |
| 2006 |
| 7.25 +0.030 | |
| 2007 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.74 −0.511 |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.64 −0.108 |
| 2009 |
| 6.65 +0.015 | |
| 2010 |
| 6.67 +0.014 | |
| 2011 |
| Breadbasket failure | 6.31 −0.355 |
| 2012 |
| 6.32 +0.009 | |
| 2013 |
| 6.33 +0.013 | |
| 2014 |
| 6.35 +0.017 | |
| 2015 |
| 6.37 +0.019 | |
| 2016 |
| 6.39 +0.018 | |
| 2017 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.25 −0.143 |
| 2018 |
| 6.27 +0.025 | |
| 2019 |
| 6.29 +0.024 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicBreadbasket failure | 5.88 −0.413 |
| 2021 |
| 5.90 +0.019 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 5.63 −0.267 |
| 2023 |
| 5.66 +0.024 | |
| 2024 |
| Core disaster | 5.56 −0.100 |
| 2025 |
| 5.58 +0.024 | |
| 2026 |
| 5.61 +0.024 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Information & Influence | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Production & Innovation | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.860 | −64.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.667 | +185.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.592 | +41.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.404 | +28.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.303 | +21.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.34 | 10.31 | +2.97 | +5.14 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.02 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.02 | 12.57 | +2.55 | +5.17 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.21 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.97 | 12.33 | +2.36 | +5.42 | 0.00 | −2.59 | −0.47 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.41 | 3.39 | +1.98 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −0.41 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 8.54 | +1.79 | +5.34 | 0.00 | −3.44 | −0.11 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 10.07 | +1.07 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.96 | 9.74 | +0.78 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.23 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.61 | 7.34 | +0.73 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.87 | 8.42 | +0.55 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.26 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.19 | 7.93 | −0.26 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.13 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.28 | 1.01 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.78 | 1.40 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.93 | 1.50 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.05 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.23 | 8.68 | −0.55 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.28 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.72 | 2.11 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.00 | 2.38 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.04 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.48 | 2.81 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.28 | 2.59 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.53 | 8.83 | −0.70 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −3.72 | +0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.84 | 8.12 | −0.72 | +3.39 | 0.00 | −3.95 | −0.16 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.62 | 2.60 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.13 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.18 | 4.13 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.07 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.27 | 3.13 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 4.32 | 3.14 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.13 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.93 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.13 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.68 | 3.34 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.18 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.72 | 6.37 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.13 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.81 | 6.46 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.16 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 8.35 | 6.97 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.23 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 7.43 | 6.00 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.24 | 5.80 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.05 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.55 | 4.04 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.18 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.11 | 4.53 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.12 | 7.45 | −1.67 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −2.91 | −0.53 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.16 | 5.47 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +0.11 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.88 | 6.16 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.22 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.36 | 4.64 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.18 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.71 | 6.93 | −1.78 | +4.53 | 0.00 | −6.04 | −0.27 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 7.72 | 5.90 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.11 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.48 | 5.65 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.06 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.47 | 5.55 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.17 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.39 | 4.38 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.26 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.65 | 8.52 | −2.13 | +2.51 | 0.00 | −3.98 | −0.65 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.31 | 5.11 | −2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.06 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.28 | 4.97 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.61 | 6.29 | −2.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | +0.23 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 7.88 | 5.55 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.16 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.42 | 4.08 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.34 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.26 | 5.90 | −2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.48 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 7.86 | 5.47 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.25 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.79 | 4.38 | −2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.25 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.69 | 4.18 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.26 | −0.24 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.18 | 4.64 | −2.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.25 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.64 | 5.08 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.28 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.87 | 5.31 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.12 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.19 | 4.47 | −2.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.45 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.69 | 5.77 | −2.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 9.32 | 6.36 | −2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.42 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.41 | 5.43 | −2.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.64 | −0.34 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.67 | 6.63 | −3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | +0.02 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.42 | 4.31 | −3.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | −0.22 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.12 | 5.87 | −3.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.17 | −0.07 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.74 | 5.49 | −3.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.03 | −0.21 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.95 | 7.59 | −3.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.84 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.79 | 4.37 | −3.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.33 | −0.09 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.48 | 5.03 | −3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.15 | −0.29 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.93 | 5.46 | −3.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.03 | −0.44 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.98 | 6.47 | −3.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.43 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 10.34 | 6.74 | −3.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.52 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 5.27 | −4.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.98 | −0.25 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.12 | 4.86 | −4.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.69 | +0.43 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.72 | 3.90 | −4.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.66 | −0.16 |
Seed 7 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ken. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.