Simulation 17
Kenya, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 17: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.31 at the 1996 position, 5.61 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 17
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 7 (median simulation), 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 5.61 (−1.70)
- From 7.31
- Rank by index
- 108
- From 77
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 9 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Breadbasket failure | 7.12 −0.196 |
| 1998 |
| 7.13 +0.009 | |
| 1999 |
| 7.14 +0.009 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.15 +0.010 | |
| 2001 |
| 7.16 +0.011 | |
| 2002 |
| 7.17 +0.011 | |
| 2003 |
| 7.18 +0.016 | |
| 2004 |
| 7.20 +0.018 | |
| 2005 |
| 7.22 +0.023 | |
| 2006 |
| 7.25 +0.029 | |
| 2007 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.74 −0.511 |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.64 −0.108 |
| 2009 |
| 6.65 +0.017 | |
| 2010 |
| 6.67 +0.015 | |
| 2011 |
| Breadbasket failure | 6.31 −0.355 |
| 2012 |
| 6.32 +0.011 | |
| 2013 |
| 6.34 +0.014 | |
| 2014 |
| 6.36 +0.018 | |
| 2015 |
| 6.37 +0.019 | |
| 2016 |
| 6.39 +0.018 | |
| 2017 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 6.25 −0.144 |
| 2018 |
| 6.27 +0.025 | |
| 2019 |
| 6.30 +0.024 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicBreadbasket failure | 5.88 −0.413 |
| 2021 |
| 5.90 +0.020 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 5.64 −0.266 |
| 2023 |
| 5.66 +0.025 | |
| 2024 |
| Core disaster | 5.56 −0.099 |
| 2025 |
| 5.59 +0.026 | |
| 2026 |
| 5.61 +0.025 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Information & Influence | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Production & Innovation | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.860 | −64.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.667 | +185.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.592 | +41.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.404 | +28.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.303 | +21.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.34 | 10.30 | +2.96 | +5.14 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.04 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.02 | 12.62 | +2.60 | +5.16 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.14 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.97 | 12.49 | +2.52 | +5.43 | 0.00 | −2.59 | −0.32 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.41 | 3.38 | +1.97 | +2.39 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 8.53 | +1.78 | +5.34 | 0.00 | −3.44 | −0.12 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 9.99 | +0.99 | +3.21 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.20 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.96 | 9.74 | +0.78 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.23 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.61 | 7.34 | +0.73 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.87 | 8.41 | +0.54 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.27 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.28 | 1.01 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.19 | 7.88 | −0.31 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −2.05 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.78 | 1.37 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.06 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.93 | 1.49 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.06 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.23 | 8.77 | −0.46 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.18 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.00 | 2.37 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.05 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.72 | 2.09 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.11 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.48 | 2.81 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.28 | 2.60 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.84 | 8.12 | −0.72 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −3.96 | −0.16 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.53 | 8.79 | −0.74 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −3.72 | +0.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.62 | 2.59 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.18 | 4.12 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.08 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.27 | 3.12 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.11 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 4.32 | 3.14 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.13 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.96 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.09 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.81 | 6.51 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.21 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 8.35 | 7.01 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.28 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.68 | 3.32 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.20 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.72 | 6.33 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | +0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 7.43 | 6.00 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.24 | 5.79 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.12 | 7.59 | −1.53 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −2.92 | −0.38 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.55 | 3.98 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.26 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.11 | 4.52 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.13 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.16 | 5.43 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.07 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.88 | 6.13 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.26 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.71 | 6.96 | −1.75 | +4.53 | 0.00 | −6.05 | −0.23 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.48 | 5.69 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.36 | 4.53 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.30 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 7.72 | 5.87 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.08 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.47 | 5.56 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.65 | 8.70 | −1.95 | +2.50 | 0.00 | −4.01 | −0.44 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.39 | 4.40 | −1.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.23 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.31 | 5.20 | −2.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | +0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 7.88 | 5.60 | −2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.11 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.28 | 4.98 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.01 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.42 | 4.11 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.31 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.61 | 6.29 | −2.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.56 | +0.23 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.26 | 5.91 | −2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.47 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 7.86 | 5.46 | −2.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.26 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.79 | 4.37 | −2.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.69 | 4.27 | −2.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.14 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.87 | 5.34 | −2.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.18 | 4.61 | −2.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.29 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.64 | 5.06 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.31 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.19 | 4.56 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.34 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.69 | 5.80 | −2.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.18 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 9.32 | 6.41 | −2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.35 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.67 | 6.62 | −3.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | +0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.41 | 5.35 | −3.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.43 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.74 | 5.59 | −3.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.05 | −0.10 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.42 | 4.24 | −3.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.87 | −0.31 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.95 | 7.71 | −3.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.71 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.12 | 5.84 | −3.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.17 | −0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.93 | 5.49 | −3.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.03 | −0.41 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.79 | 4.35 | −3.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.33 | −0.11 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.48 | 5.02 | −3.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.15 | −0.31 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.98 | 6.45 | −3.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.45 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 10.34 | 6.77 | −3.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.49 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 5.29 | −4.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.98 | −0.24 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.12 | 4.80 | −4.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.64 | +0.32 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.72 | 3.96 | −4.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.67 | −0.08 |
Seed 17 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ken. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.