E4 · cycle-003.e4-kor

South Korea, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. South Korea decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 12.72 (−0.40); From 13.13; 12.71 to 12.73
Rank by index: 23; From 21; 23 to 23
Domains at Tier 1: 2; From 0; 2 to 2
Tier rank: 8; From 22; 8 to 8

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	13.13	12.71	12.72	12.73	higher
Rank by index	21	23	23	23	lower
Tier rank	22	8	8	8	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	2	2	2	higher
Score sum	959.3	929.5	930.0	930.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	959.3	929.5	930.0	930.6	higher
Resilient score	959.3	930.0 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 100 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 1,570 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks South Korea actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 13.13; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 16.00; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 12.72; 12.68 to 12.76
Skill against persistence: −0.23; group error 3.52 against 2.86 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	11.71	16.08	12.04 12.0–12.1	−4.04	right
Strategic Infrastructure	14.19	16.32	13.74 13.7–13.8	−2.58	wrong
National Security	12.32	14.41	11.74 11.7–11.8	−2.67	wrong
Human Capital	14.34	16.49	13.54 13.5–13.6	−2.95	wrong
Information & Influence	11.75	15.49	11.44 11.4–11.5	−4.06	wrong
Governance & Integrity	13.07	15.84	12.79 12.8–12.8	−3.05	wrong
Financial Strength	12.26	16.07	12.43 12.4–12.5	−3.65	wrong
Production & Innovation	14.44	16.63	13.85 13.8–13.9	−2.79	wrong
Trade & Investment	14.06	16.68	12.94 12.9–13.0	−3.73	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 1 The won collapsed, banks and chaebols faced insolvency, and South Korea required a US$58 billion IMF-led rescue package.
2008 · S02 × 0.6 The global financial crisis hit Korean banks' external rollovers and exports, but reserves and swap lines cushioned the shock.
2019 · S01 × 0.4 Japan's export controls on semiconductor and display materials struck at critical supply chains.
2020 · S10 × 0.7 COVID-19 caused a public health emergency and export contraction, though K-quarantine limited domestic spread.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 5% each The IMF crisis response forced financial, corporate, public-sector and trade restructuring to restore external credit. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Trade Policy & Market Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2001–2005 · build · 5% each The national broadband and IT industry strategy made South Korea a globally connected digital economy and launched Korean cultural exports. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy, Innovation & Commercialisation)
2006–2010 · build · 2% each Lee Myung-bak's green growth and FTA network sought low-carbon energy investment and advanced manufacturing upgrades. (Energy Technologies, Energy Infrastructure, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Trade Policy & Market Access, Air Power)
2011–2015 · build · 2% each The creative economy and welfare state push prioritised software start-ups, digital services and inclusion. (Artificial Intelligence, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Population Health, Financial System Depth & Access, Digital & Services Trade)
2016–2020 · build · 5% each Moon Jae-in's innovation-led growth concentrated on the Fourth Industrial Revolution, bio-health and cyber defence. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations)
2021–2026 · build · 5% each Yoon administration's strategic technology drive prioritised chip sovereignty, advanced materials, batteries, space and demographic resilience. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Energy Technologies, Space Technologies, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The 1996 baseline for rapidly changing technology groups is approximate because South Korea stood between developmental-state capacity and the frontier in many domains. Military and security scores are especially uncertain because public data are incomplete and dependent on US alliance capabilities. Financial sector scores reflect known vulnerability before the 1997 crisis.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

South Korea played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 13.13 to a median of 12.72 (−0.40), with 90 per cent of simulations between 12.71 and 12.73 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 21 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 22. Its base income is 649 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,569 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (build, 284 credits, 18.1 per cent); Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies (build, 155 credits, 9.9 per cent); Trade Policy & Market Access (build, 127 credits, 8.1 per cent); Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (build, 127 credits, 8.1 per cent); Financial Stability & Crisis Management (build, 127 credits, 8.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 100 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.096, and the most repeated action appeared in 37 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Critical Technology; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 4 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −25.3 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −14.9 points each); S01 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −14.3 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.25; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.21; Labour & Employment −2.19; Monetary & Currency Capability −2.11 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies to Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (+0.50 points); Financial Regulation & Integrity to Financial Infrastructure (+0.38 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.42 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 23 (5th to 95th percentile 23 to 23), the median count of Tier 1 domains 2 (2 to 2) and the median tier rank 8; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 930 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: governance and integrity (0 to 100 per cent of simulations); strategic infrastructure (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.060 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.060 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.840: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.036 and +0.017, for example 1997 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (32 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.370 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-kor/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 14) ends −0.02 from it, with 4 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 13.13 the model ends at 12.72, where the 2026 ratings put it at 16.00. Group scores miss by 3.52 points on average, against 2.86 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.23); the change in each domain has the right sign in 11 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: information and influence (−4.06); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (−2.58) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.840	−55.7	−2.00
No shocks	+1.060	+70.6	+2.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.032	−1.9	0.00	1997 build Financial Stability & Crisis Management (32 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.036	−2.2	0.00	1997 build Financial Regulation & Integrity (32 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.017	+1.2	0.00	1997 build Industrial & Sectoral Base (32 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	0.00	1997 build Trade Policy & Market Access (32 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.011	−0.9	−1.00	1997 build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (32 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.338	+22.6	0.00	2020 S10 (-25.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.370	+24.8	0.00	1997 S02 (-19.7 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.195	+12.2	0.00	2019 S01 (-14.2 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	23.0	−14.3
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−14.9
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−25.4

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	13.54	19.13 19.11 to 19.14	+5.59	6.71	155
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.67	14.48 14.47 to 14.49	+4.81	5.89	93
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	14.15 14.04 to 14.29	+4.73	6.31	127
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.60	15.07 15.05 to 15.11	+4.47	6.28	127
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	14.13	17.77 17.73 to 17.81	+3.64	5.57	127
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.61	19.08 19.02 to 19.12	+3.47	4.41	123
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	15.85	18.91 18.89 to 18.93	+3.06	4.23	127
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.20	18.77 18.75 to 18.79	+2.57	4.32	127
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	15.32	17.35 17.33 to 17.36	+2.03	3.55	125
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	14.91	16.73 16.70 to 16.75	+1.82	3.30	93
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.79	19.15 19.14 to 19.16	+1.36	2.86	284
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	11.32	12.62 12.59 to 12.66	+1.30	2.59	57
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.49	1.42 1.42 to 1.43	−0.07	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.27	12.20 12.04 to 12.35	−0.07	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	13.83	13.43 13.35 to 13.54	−0.40	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	5.33 5.31 to 5.34	−0.53	0.21	4
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.50	12.94 12.91 to 12.97	−0.56	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	8.17	7.60 7.57 to 7.61	−0.57	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	12.82	12.18 12.17 to 12.20	−0.64	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	14.04	13.39 13.37 to 13.42	−0.65	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	11.61	10.93 10.91 to 10.95	−0.68	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	12.25	11.56 11.52 to 11.58	−0.69	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	13.85	13.15 13.11 to 13.17	−0.70	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	15.36	14.64 14.62 to 14.66	−0.72	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	14.61	13.88 13.86 to 13.91	−0.73	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.41	13.68 13.58 to 13.78	−0.73	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.07	9.34 9.32 to 9.36	−0.73	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	13.85	13.11 13.04 to 13.18	−0.74	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	13.95	13.20 13.17 to 13.21	−0.75	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	12.32	11.57 11.56 to 11.59	−0.75	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.84	10.09 10.09 to 10.10	−0.75	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	17.34	16.57 16.53 to 16.60	−0.77	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	14.00	13.23 13.22 to 13.25	−0.77	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	12.91	12.14 12.12 to 12.16	−0.77	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.97	13.18 13.07 to 13.24	−0.79	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.10	15.31 15.27 to 15.35	−0.79	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.74	13.95 13.92 to 13.97	−0.79	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.34	11.54 11.52 to 11.56	−0.80	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.31	13.42 13.39 to 13.45	−0.89	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	7.03	6.13 6.12 to 6.15	−0.90	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.35	14.45 14.34 to 14.54	−0.90	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	17.45	16.54 16.52 to 16.57	−0.91	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.98	15.07 15.03 to 15.12	−0.91	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.83	10.90 10.84 to 10.98	−0.93	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	10.40 10.34 to 10.46	−0.93	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.39	15.44 15.31 to 15.52	−0.95	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	14.08	13.07 13.04 to 13.10	−1.01	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	11.79	10.77 10.74 to 10.82	−1.02	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	10.39 10.38 to 10.39	−1.13	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.32	14.16 14.06 to 14.31	−1.16	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.70	13.53 13.46 to 13.64	−1.17	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	9.10	7.92 7.88 to 7.95	−1.18	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.25	11.03 10.93 to 11.12	−1.22	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	10.98	9.69 9.67 to 9.71	−1.29	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	14.88	13.59 13.57 to 13.64	−1.29	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	15.16	13.86 13.83 to 13.90	−1.30	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	12.96	11.64 11.62 to 11.67	−1.32	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.56	13.23 13.17 to 13.29	−1.33	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.91	11.42 11.39 to 11.46	−1.49	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.79	9.28 9.25 to 9.30	−1.51	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	12.26	10.69 10.65 to 10.73	−1.57	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.42	10.83 10.82 to 10.85	−1.59	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	14.64	12.87 12.78 to 12.92	−1.77	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.50	14.64 14.56 to 14.67	−1.86	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	10.51	8.61 8.60 to 8.63	−1.90	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	13.90	11.93 11.89 to 11.98	−1.97	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	14.81	12.81 12.81 to 12.82	−2.00	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.15	10.12 10.09 to 10.15	−2.03	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	16.80	14.72 14.67 to 14.75	−2.08	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	13.60	11.45 11.40 to 11.52	−2.15	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.92	9.45 9.43 to 9.47	−2.47	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.95	11.42 11.39 to 11.45	−2.53	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	11.79 11.71 to 11.88	−2.57	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 4.3e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.419 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.8e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.96 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 21; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.096; most funded group hard.critical_technology.semiconductors_and_advanced_computing
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 37% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 0.7% since cycle-002 (12.81 to 12.72); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 0.7% since cycle-002 (936.73 to 930.04); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-kor. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: South Korea (KOR)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 23, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 648.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.2 seconds in all; 1768 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.