A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-lka

Simulation 18

Sri Lanka, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 18: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.11 at the 1996 position, 7.17 in 2026; 148 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 18

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 23 (median simulation), 12 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.17 (−0.94); From 8.11
Rank by index: 80; From 67
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Land Power 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 10 Build Foundational Education 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9		8.13 +0.012
1998	Build Land Power 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 10 Build Foundational Education 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 9		8.15 +0.023
1999	Build Land Power 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 10 Build Foundational Education 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 8		8.18 +0.029
2000	Build Land Power 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 10 Build Foundational Education 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 7		8.21 +0.032
2001	Build Land Power 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 10 Build Foundational Education 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 5		8.24 +0.032
2002	Build Land Power 10 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 10 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 10 Build Foundational Education 10 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 3		8.27 +0.030
2003	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4		8.30 +0.027
2004	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4	Core disaster	8.02 −0.276
2005	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4		8.04 +0.018
2006	Partner Transport Infrastructure 4 Partner Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Partner National Resilience & Crisis Management 4 Partner Health System Capability 4 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4 Build Intelligence & Assessment 10 Build Land Power 10 Build Air Power 10 Build Maritime Power 10 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 10		8.05 +0.015
2007	Build Intelligence & Assessment 10 Build Land Power 10 Build Air Power 10 Build Maritime Power 10 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 10		8.07 +0.015
2008	Build Intelligence & Assessment 10 Build Land Power 10 Build Air Power 10 Build Maritime Power 10 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 10	Global funding seizure	7.91 −0.159
2009	Build Intelligence & Assessment 10 Build Land Power 10 Build Air Power 10 Build Maritime Power 3		7.92 +0.011
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 Build Financial System Depth & Access 2		7.94 +0.015
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 Build Financial System Depth & Access 1		7.96 +0.019
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9		7.97 +0.017
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8		7.99 +0.015
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8		8.01 +0.016
2015	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4		8.02 +0.015
2016	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4		8.03 +0.013
2017	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4		8.05 +0.014
2018	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4		8.06 +0.014
2019	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		8.08 +0.016
2020	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2	Severe pandemic	7.80 −0.277
2021	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2		7.81 +0.009
2022	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 2 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 9 Build Population Health 9	Global funding seizureLegitimacy rupture	7.11 −0.695
2023	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 9 Build Population Health 9		7.13 +0.015
2024	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 8 Build Population Health 6		7.14 +0.012
2025	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 7		7.15 +0.015
2026	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Buy Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 1		7.17 +0.018

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	12	12	12	12	12
Strategic Infrastructure	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	9	9	8	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8
Information & Influence	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	14	15	15	14	14	14
Financial Strength	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	23	22	22	21	21
Production & Innovation	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	14	14	14	15	15	15	16	16	16	16
Trade & Investment	10	10	10	9	9	8	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	9	9	9	9	9

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.725	−52.3
No shocks	+1.695	+114.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.4
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	0.001	−0.0
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.3
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.008	+0.4
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.556	+36.4
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.325	+23.1
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.309	+21.4

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Land Power	National Security	8.80	11.37	+2.57	+3.20	−0.67	+0.04
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.68	13.88	+2.20	+3.50	−1.06	−0.24
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	10.68	+1.61	+3.78	−2.06	−0.11
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.40	11.45	+1.05	+4.06	−3.14	+0.13
Air Power	National Security	5.77	6.79	+1.02	+1.59	−0.52	−0.06
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	10.74	+0.93	+2.69	−1.55	−0.21
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.15	9.03	+0.88	+1.64	−0.68	−0.09
Maritime Power	National Security	6.14	6.93	+0.79	+1.34	−0.54	−0.01
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	8.09	+0.69	+2.10	−1.25	−0.16
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	10.40	+0.68	+2.01	−1.03	−0.30
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	9.87	+0.65	+2.30	−1.54	−0.10
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	8.53	+0.33	+1.06	−0.67	−0.06
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.77	8.81	+0.04	+2.19	−2.17	+0.02
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.03	0.01	−0.02	0.00	0.00	−0.01
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.04	7.83	−0.21	+0.89	−1.16	+0.05
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	1.54	−0.24	0.00	−0.21	−0.03
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.95	1.69	−0.26	0.00	−0.23	−0.02
Population Health	Human Capital	10.93	10.66	−0.27	+1.11	−1.26	−0.11
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.75	−0.32	+0.80	−1.08	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	8.08	−0.36	+0.82	−1.19	+0.01
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	8.13	−0.37	+0.81	−1.19	+0.01
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.81	2.43	−0.38	0.00	−0.34	−0.04
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	2.28	−0.39	0.00	−0.37	−0.02
Space Operations	National Security	3.74	3.35	−0.39	0.00	−0.32	−0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.08	2.68	−0.40	0.00	−0.36	−0.04
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.32	2.89	−0.43	0.00	−0.39	−0.04
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.10	4.58	−0.52	0.00	−0.42	−0.10
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	3.42	−0.53	0.00	−0.46	−0.07
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	4.04	−0.56	0.00	−0.54	−0.02
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.22	7.59	−0.63	0.00	−0.84	+0.22
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	6.86	−0.67	0.00	−0.61	−0.07
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.70	−0.73	0.00	−0.62	−0.11
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	7.11	−0.75	+0.44	−1.09	−0.09
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.75	8.98	−0.77	0.00	−0.97	+0.20
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	4.15	−0.82	0.00	−0.62	−0.21
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	7.65	−0.87	0.00	−0.86	−0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	8.25	−0.88	+2.39	−3.18	−0.09
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	7.22	−0.89	0.00	−0.82	−0.07
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	5.45	−0.91	0.00	−0.78	−0.13
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	8.49	−0.93	+2.11	−2.95	−0.09
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.14	−0.95	0.00	−0.90	−0.05
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.26	5.25	−1.01	0.00	−0.95	−0.06
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.43	9.42	−1.01	+0.81	−1.61	−0.22
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	9.77	−1.03	+0.30	−1.22	−0.11
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.72	7.68	−1.04	0.00	−1.03	−0.01
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.90	10.77	−1.13	0.00	−0.99	−0.15
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.12	4.95	−1.17	0.00	−0.91	−0.26
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	8.19	−1.18	0.00	−1.12	−0.06
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	10.06	−1.29	+0.82	−1.89	−0.22
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.44	7.14	−1.30	0.00	−1.24	−0.06
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.23	6.91	−1.32	0.00	−1.21	−0.11
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.65	7.33	−1.32	0.00	−1.27	−0.05
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	9.04	−1.33	0.00	−1.21	−0.12
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.12	5.63	−1.49	0.00	−1.38	−0.12
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	9.24	−1.51	0.00	−1.50	0.00
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.85	5.34	−1.51	0.00	−1.58	+0.08
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	6.82	−1.63	0.00	−1.66	+0.02
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	6.10	−1.67	0.00	−1.50	−0.18
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	6.23	−1.76	0.00	−1.73	−0.03
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.59	7.82	−1.77	+2.55	−3.90	−0.42
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.71	−1.90	0.00	−1.64	−0.26
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.63	5.66	−1.97	0.00	−1.74	−0.23
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	8.48	−2.13	0.00	−1.70	−0.44
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.78	8.48	−2.30	0.00	−1.89	−0.42
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.31	7.98	−2.33	0.00	−2.31	−0.02
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	7.87	−2.36	0.00	−2.27	−0.10
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.02	8.65	−2.37	0.00	−2.33	−0.04
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.14	7.75	−2.39	0.00	−2.25	−0.14
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	5.68	−2.54	0.00	−2.36	−0.18
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	5.91	−3.11	0.00	−2.80	−0.31
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.46	5.35	−3.11	0.00	−2.98	−0.13
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.86	6.72	−3.14	0.00	−3.06	−0.07
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	6.57	−3.26	+0.15	−3.37	−0.05

Seed 18 of experiment cycle-003.e4-lka. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.