E4 · cycle-003.e4-lka

Sri Lanka, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Sri Lanka decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Core disaster in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Global funding seizure in year 26, Legitimacy rupture in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 7.17 (−0.95); From 8.11; 7.16 to 7.17
Rank by index: 80; From 67; 80 to 80
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 82; From 83; 82 to 82

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	8.11	7.16	7.17	7.17	higher
Rank by index	67	80	80	80	lower
Tier rank	83	82	82	82	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	579.4	518.2	518.5	519.0	higher
Goal-weighted score	579.4	518.2	518.5	519.0	higher
Resilient score	579.4	518.5 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 87 per cent, buy took 4 per cent, partner took 8 per cent of the 973 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Sri Lanka actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 8.11; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 7.25; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 7.17; 7.13 to 7.20
Skill against persistence: +0.08; group error 0.95 against 1.03 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	3.59	2.55	3.09 3.1–3.1	+0.54	right
Strategic Infrastructure	9.09	8.34	8.15 8.1–8.2	−0.18	right
National Security	6.32	5.53	6.79 6.8–6.8	+1.26	wrong
Human Capital	9.95	9.56	9.44 9.4–9.5	−0.11	right
Information & Influence	8.36	6.93	6.97 6.9–7.0	+0.04	right
Governance & Integrity	8.86	9.03	8.26 8.2–8.3	−0.78	wrong
Financial Strength	9.11	7.76	7.17 7.1–7.2	−0.59	right
Production & Innovation	8.28	7.50	6.53 6.5–6.6	−0.97	right
Trade & Investment	9.46	8.06	8.09 8.1–8.1	+0.03	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2004 · S07 × 0.9 The Indian Ocean tsunami killed over 30,000 people and destroyed coastal housing, fisheries and railway lines, though Colombo and the hill country were spared the worst.
2008 · S02 × 0.4 The global financial crisis compressed remittances, exports and foreign borrowing; Sri Lanka sought an IMF standby arrangement but did not suffer a domestic banking collapse.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 shut tourism, slowed garment exports and interrupted supply chains; strict lockdowns helped contain the virus but triggered the largest economic contraction since independence.
2022 · S02 × 1.2 Foreign reserves fell to near zero after debt-financed infrastructure and tax cuts; Sri Lanka defaulted on external obligations in April 2022 and faced acute fuel, food and medicine shortages.
2022 · S05 × 0.5 The Aragalaya protests forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office; power transferred constitutionally but effective government was severely strained for months.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2002 · build · 5% each The Kumaratunga government intensified the war against the LTTE, expanded the army and pushed export-led industrialisation through garments while protecting education. (Land Power, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Export Capability & Sophistication, Foundational Education, Industrial & Sectoral Base)
2002–2006 · partner · 2% each Ceasefire and international tsunami aid supported reconstruction of roads, water systems and health facilities while Norway brokered peace talks after the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. (Transport Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Trade Facilitation & Logistics)
2006–2009 · build · 5% each The Rajapaksa government ended the ceasefire and waged an all-out conventional and special-operations campaign against the LTTE, expanding all service arms. (Intelligence & Assessment, Land Power, Air Power, Maritime Power, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment)
2009–2014 · build · 5% each Post-war governments prioritised large infrastructure, especially roads, ports and power, and opened to Chinese infrastructure finance to remake Colombo and Hambantota. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Financial System Depth & Access, Structural Transformation & Complexity)
2015–2018 · build · 2% each The Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government pursued constitutional reform, anti-corruption, right-to-information and fiscal consolidation, though reforms remained incomplete. (Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Transparency, Oversight & Accountability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2019–2022 · build · 1% each After the 2019 Easter bombings and the 2020 COVID-19 shock, the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government imposed tax cuts and a chemical fertiliser ban, lost external financing and drove the 2022 sovereign default. (Internal Security & Order, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2022–2026 · buy · 5% each The Wickremesinghe administration implemented IMF conditionality, raised taxes, allowed the rupee to float, restructured external debt and sought multilateral support to stabilise the economy. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Population Health)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The greatest uncertainty is translating Sri Lanka's civil-war-era military capability into global relative scores, because formal force size and counter-insurgency effectiveness diverged from high-intensity capability. Post-2019 economic collapse is still in flux, and recovery to 2026 depends heavily on IMF programme compliance and external debt restructuring outcomes. Some information-age and frontier technology scores are inferred largely from absence, giving them lower confidence.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Sri Lanka played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 8.11 to a median of 7.16 (−0.95), with 90 per cent of simulations between 7.16 and 7.17 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 67 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 83. Its base income is 204 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 974 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Land Power (build, 100 credits, 10.3 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 64 credits, 6.6 per cent); Export Capability & Sophistication (build, 61 credits, 6.3 per cent); Foundational Education (build, 61 credits, 6.3 per cent); Force Generation & Mobilisation (build, 61 credits, 6.3 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 87 per cent, partner 8 per cent, buy 4 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.053, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, National Security; rounds 11 to 15, National Security; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Governance & Integrity; rounds 26 to 30, Financial Strength [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −21.9 points each); S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −20.8 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −19.9 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.90; Financial System Depth & Access −3.37; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.17; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.15 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.45 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.35 points); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (−0.41 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 80 (5th to 95th percentile 79 to 80), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 82; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 519 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.695 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.695 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.725: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.002 and +0.008, for example 1997 build Land Power (10 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.556 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 17) ends +0.01 from it, with 5 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 8.11 the model ends at 7.17, where the 2026 ratings put it at 7.25. Group scores miss by 0.95 points on average, against 1.03 for assuming nothing changed (skill +0.08); the change in each domain has the right sign in 78 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: production and innovation (−0.97); furthest above: national security (+1.26) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.725	−52.3
No shocks	+1.695	+114.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.008	+0.4	1997 build Land Power (10 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.4	1997 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (10 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.0	1997 build Export Capability & Sophistication (10 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.3	1997 build Foundational Education (10 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.008	+0.4	1998 build Land Power (10 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.556	+36.4	2022 S02 (-32.6 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.325	+23.1	2004 S07 (-20.8 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.309	+21.4	2020 S10 (-19.9 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−21.9
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−14.8
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	8.0	−20.8
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−19.9

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Land Power	National Security	8.80	11.39 11.36 to 11.43	+2.59	3.19	100
Foundational Education	Human Capital	11.68	13.88 13.82 to 13.93	+2.20	3.50	61
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.07	10.68 10.65 to 10.71	+1.61	3.78	61
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.40	11.46 11.41 to 11.52	+1.06	4.07	60
Air Power	National Security	5.77	6.79 6.77 to 6.81	+1.02	1.59	39
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.15	9.05 9.02 to 9.07	+0.90	1.64	39
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	10.65 10.57 to 10.74	+0.84	2.69	63
Maritime Power	National Security	6.14	6.93 6.92 to 6.95	+0.79	1.33	32
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	8.08 8.05 to 8.10	+0.68	2.10	47
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.72	10.40 10.29 to 10.49	+0.68	2.01	61
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	9.84 9.80 to 9.88	+0.62	2.31	51
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.20	8.52 8.49 to 8.55	+0.32	1.06	29
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.77	8.79 8.76 to 8.81	+0.02	2.19	40
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.03	0.02 0.01 to 0.02	−0.01	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	8.04	7.82 7.80 to 7.84	−0.22	0.90	15
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.78	1.54 1.54 to 1.55	−0.24	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.95	1.70 1.70 to 1.70	−0.25	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	10.93	10.67 10.61 to 10.71	−0.26	1.12	25
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	8.75 8.74 to 8.76	−0.32	0.80	15
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	8.07 8.07 to 8.08	−0.37	0.82	15
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.81	2.43 2.43 to 2.44	−0.38	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.50	8.12 8.12 to 8.13	−0.38	0.81	15
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	2.28 2.28 to 2.29	−0.39	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.74	3.34 3.33 to 3.35	−0.40	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.08	2.67 2.66 to 2.68	−0.41	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.32	2.89 2.88 to 2.90	−0.43	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.10	4.61 4.59 to 4.62	−0.49	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.95	3.41 3.41 to 3.43	−0.54	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.60	4.04 4.03 to 4.04	−0.56	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.22	7.56 7.50 to 7.59	−0.66	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.75	9.06 8.98 to 9.15	−0.69	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	6.84 6.82 to 6.86	−0.69	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	4.69 4.67 to 4.71	−0.74	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	7.12 7.09 to 7.15	−0.74	0.44	8
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.97	4.20 4.16 to 4.24	−0.77	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	7.70 7.66 to 7.74	−0.82	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.11	7.21 7.19 to 7.23	−0.90	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	8.20 8.17 to 8.24	−0.93	2.39	50
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	8.13 8.12 to 8.15	−0.96	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	5.39 5.34 to 5.46	−0.97	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.26	5.25 5.24 to 5.26	−1.01	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	8.41 8.34 to 8.50	−1.01	2.13	41
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.72	7.67 7.66 to 7.68	−1.05	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	9.74 9.71 to 9.77	−1.06	0.30	8
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.43	9.33 9.24 to 9.41	−1.10	0.81	16
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.37	8.22 8.19 to 8.25	−1.15	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.90	10.75 10.71 to 10.79	−1.15	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.12	4.97 4.90 to 5.01	−1.15	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.44	7.16 7.13 to 7.17	−1.28	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	8.65	7.32 7.29 to 7.34	−1.33	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	9.03 8.99 to 9.07	−1.34	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	10.01 9.96 to 10.06	−1.34	0.82	16
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.23	6.89 6.86 to 6.93	−1.34	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	9.24 9.24 to 9.24	−1.51	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.85	5.33 5.32 to 5.35	−1.52	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.12	5.60 5.58 to 5.63	−1.52	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	6.82 6.81 to 6.84	−1.63	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	6.12 6.09 to 6.15	−1.65	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	6.23 6.22 to 6.23	−1.76	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	9.59	7.79 7.73 to 7.88	−1.80	2.56	64
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.69 6.61 to 6.77	−1.92	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.63	5.67 5.62 to 5.71	−1.96	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.61	8.54 8.43 to 8.61	−2.07	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.31	7.97 7.95 to 8.01	−2.34	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.02	8.64 8.61 to 8.65	−2.38	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	7.82 7.79 to 7.86	−2.41	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.78	8.35 8.29 to 8.48	−2.43	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.14	7.71 7.68 to 7.75	−2.43	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	5.73 5.68 to 5.76	−2.49	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	5.97 5.92 to 6.01	−3.05	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.46	5.35 5.34 to 5.38	−3.11	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.86	6.71 6.70 to 6.73	−3.15	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	6.57 6.55 to 6.59	−3.26	0.15	3

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 5.7e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.009 to 14.949
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.6e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.68 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 4 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 67; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.053; most funded group hard.national_security.land_power
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 9.6% since cycle-002 (6.54 to 7.16); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 9.3% since cycle-002 (474.51 to 518.48); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-lka. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Sri Lanka (LKA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Core disaster in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Global funding seizure in year 26, Legitimacy rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 204.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.0 seconds in all; 1621 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.