Simulation 13
Lithuania, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 13: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.78 at the 1996 position, 8.00 in 2026; 115 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 21 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 18 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.00 (−0.79)
- From 8.78
- Rank by index
- 68
- From 61
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 8.82 +0.033 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.69 −0.125 |
| 1999 |
| 8.75 +0.061 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.80 +0.050 | |
| 2001 |
| 8.85 +0.046 | |
| 2002 |
| 8.89 +0.041 | |
| 2003 |
| 8.93 +0.037 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 9.05 +0.119 |
| 2005 |
| 9.16 +0.111 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.27 +0.106 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.29 +0.022 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.98 −0.311 |
| 2009 |
| 8.99 +0.019 | |
| 2010 |
| 9.01 +0.016 | |
| 2011 |
| 9.03 +0.019 | |
| 2012 |
| 9.04 +0.014 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.06 +0.012 | |
| 2014 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 8.97 −0.085 |
| 2015 | No actions | 8.87 −0.098 | |
| 2016 | No actions | 8.77 −0.101 | |
| 2017 |
| 8.77 −0.002 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.77 +0.001 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.78 +0.007 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.33 −0.447 |
| 2021 |
| 8.34 +0.004 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 8.01 −0.331 |
| 2023 |
| 8.00 −0.002 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.00 −0.005 | |
| 2025 |
| 7.99 −0.003 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.00 +0.001 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.766 | −56.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.756 | +118.1 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.004 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.003 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.004 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.026 | +1.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.003 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.496 | +34.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.358 | +25.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.385 | +26.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.74 | 16.06 | +6.32 | +9.12 | −0.02 | −2.58 | −0.19 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.78 | 8.91 | +4.13 | +4.96 | −0.01 | −0.82 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.75 | 13.77 | +4.02 | +5.69 | −0.02 | −1.49 | −0.16 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.16 | 13.14 | +3.98 | +4.80 | −0.01 | −0.89 | +0.08 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.86 | 13.22 | +3.36 | +4.15 | −0.01 | −0.83 | +0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.15 | 12.74 | +2.59 | +3.54 | −0.01 | −0.90 | −0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 13.62 | +1.64 | +3.13 | −0.01 | −1.50 | +0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.82 | 8.08 | +1.26 | +2.20 | −0.01 | −0.90 | −0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.77 | 6.58 | +0.81 | +1.57 | −0.01 | −0.76 | +0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.13 | 10.84 | +0.71 | +1.89 | −0.01 | −0.93 | −0.23 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.20 | 11.65 | +0.45 | +1.20 | −0.02 | −0.85 | +0.11 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.80 | 9.04 | +0.24 | +1.28 | −0.02 | −0.99 | −0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.66 | 7.81 | +0.15 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.87 | +0.13 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.17 | 7.24 | +0.07 | +1.40 | −0.01 | −1.28 | −0.04 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.03 | 0.01 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.32 | 9.22 | −0.10 | +1.25 | −0.02 | −1.00 | −0.34 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.33 | 9.98 | −0.35 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.30 | 2.86 | −0.44 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.07 | 2.59 | −0.48 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.48 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 10.20 | 9.69 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.34 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 4.93 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.13 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.73 | 10.15 | −0.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.61 | +0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.34 | 3.75 | −0.59 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.13 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.73 | −0.61 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 10.44 | −0.65 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.88 | −0.22 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.45 | 9.78 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.93 | 9.24 | −0.69 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.60 | −0.09 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.50 | 10.78 | −0.72 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.60 | −0.12 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.26 | 11.52 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.58 | −0.14 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 10.07 | 9.32 | −0.75 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.61 | −0.14 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.71 | 4.94 | −0.77 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.76 | 0.00 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.30 | 4.53 | −0.77 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.70 | −0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.94 | 6.17 | −0.77 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.69 | −0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 4.93 | 4.15 | −0.78 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.76 | −0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 9.24 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.56 | 9.72 | −0.84 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.91 | +0.08 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.10 | 4.26 | −0.84 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.77 | −0.07 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.70 | 4.85 | −0.85 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.75 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.12 | 4.24 | −0.88 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.85 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.61 | 9.63 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 5.72 | −0.99 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.90 | −0.08 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 5.62 | 4.62 | −1.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.72 | −0.27 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.26 | 9.24 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.91 | −0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.04 | 10.98 | −1.06 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.96 | −0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.53 | 8.47 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.11 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.67 | 8.31 | −1.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.31 | −0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.60 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 9.33 | −1.42 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.40 | −0.01 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 5.07 | −1.51 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.46 | −0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.08 | 8.56 | −1.52 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.20 | −0.31 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.50 | 6.95 | −1.55 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.43 | −0.11 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 7.64 | 6.04 | −1.60 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.48 | −0.12 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.39 | 8.77 | −1.62 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.23 | −0.38 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 8.65 | 7.02 | −1.63 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.45 | −0.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 9.50 | 7.85 | −1.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.62 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 9.55 | 7.81 | −1.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.95 | +0.21 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.98 | 8.21 | −1.77 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.70 | −0.05 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.97 | 7.19 | −1.78 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.70 | −0.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.78 | 8.96 | −1.82 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.17 | −0.65 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.23 | 8.40 | −1.83 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.85 | +0.03 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.57 | 7.70 | −1.87 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.61 | −0.26 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.78 | 5.70 | −2.08 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.87 | −0.21 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.60 | 6.45 | −2.15 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.98 | −0.16 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.86 | 7.60 | −2.26 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.58 | +0.33 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.07 | 6.71 | −2.36 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.33 | −0.02 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 8.89 | 6.50 | −2.39 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.23 | −0.15 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.90 | 7.47 | −2.43 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.44 | +0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 6.92 | −2.50 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.41 | −0.09 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.08 | 5.57 | −2.51 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.29 | −0.22 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.47 | 6.69 | −2.78 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.62 | −0.16 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.40 | 7.55 | −2.85 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.99 | +0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.16 | 8.10 | −3.06 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −3.01 | −0.23 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.69 | 6.93 | −3.76 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −3.50 | −0.26 |
Seed 13 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ltu. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.