A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-ltu

Simulation 21

Lithuania, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.78 at the 1996 position, 7.99 in 2026; 115 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 21

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (median simulation), 18 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.99 (−0.80); From 8.78
Rank by index: 68; From 61
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 12 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 12 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2		8.82 +0.033
1998	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 12 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 12 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 2	Global funding seizure	8.69 −0.125
1999	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 12 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 12 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 8		8.75 +0.061
2000	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 11 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 7		8.80 +0.050
2001	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 11 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 5		8.85 +0.046
2002	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 11 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 4		8.89 +0.041
2003	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 11 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 2		8.93 +0.037
2004	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11 Partner Political Institutions & Civic Participation 11 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 0	Market access opening	9.05 +0.119
2005	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10		9.16 +0.111
2006	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 12 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1		9.26 +0.106
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Energy Infrastructure 12 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 1		9.29 +0.021
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Energy Infrastructure 11 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 0	Global funding seizure	8.97 −0.312
2009	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 5 Partner Land Power 5 Partner Air Power 5 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 5 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 5		8.99 +0.017
2010	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 4 Partner Land Power 4 Partner Air Power 4 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 4 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 4		9.01 +0.015
2011	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 4 Partner Land Power 4 Partner Air Power 4 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 4 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 2		9.03 +0.019
2012	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 4 Partner Land Power 4 Partner Air Power 4 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 4 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 1		9.04 +0.014
2013	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 4 Partner Land Power 4 Partner Air Power 4 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 4 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 0		9.05 +0.012
2014	Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 4 Partner Land Power 4 Partner Air Power 4 Partner Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3	Trade bloc rupture	8.97 −0.085
2015	No actions		8.87 −0.098
2016	No actions		8.77 −0.101
2017	Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 7		8.76 −0.003
2018	Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Technologies 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		8.77 +0.001
2019	Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Technologies 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 4		8.77 +0.007
2020	Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Technologies 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 4	Severe pandemic	8.33 −0.446
2021	Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Technologies 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		8.33 +0.003
2022	Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Technologies 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 5	Regional war spillover	8.00 −0.331
2023	Build Energy Infrastructure 10 Build Energy Technologies 10 Build Resource Infrastructure 6		8.00 −0.003
2024	Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 7		7.99 −0.006
2025	Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 6		7.99 −0.004
2026	Build Energy Infrastructure 9 Build Energy Technologies 9 Build Resource Infrastructure 6		7.99 0.000

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	8
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	4
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	12	12	12	12	11	9	9	9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9
Financial Strength	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	20	20	21	21	21	21	21
Production & Innovation	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	15	15	15	15	15
Trade & Investment	11	11	11	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	6

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−0.766	−56.2	0.00
No shocks	+1.756	+118.1	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.004	+0.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.003	+0.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.004	+0.1	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.026	+1.9	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.496	+34.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.358	+25.8	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.385	+26.0	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.74	16.19	+6.45	+9.11	−0.02	−2.58	−0.06
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.78	8.92	+4.14	+4.95	−0.01	−0.82	+0.02
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	13.77	+4.02	+5.65	−0.02	−1.49	−0.14
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.16	13.08	+3.92	+4.77	−0.01	−0.90	+0.04
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.86	13.20	+3.34	+4.14	−0.01	−0.83	+0.03
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.15	12.73	+2.58	+3.54	−0.01	−0.90	−0.06
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	13.58	+1.60	+3.13	−0.01	−1.50	−0.03
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.82	7.93	+1.11	+2.10	−0.01	−0.90	−0.09
Air Power	National Security	5.77	6.58	+0.81	+1.56	−0.01	−0.76	+0.01
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.13	10.66	+0.53	+1.89	−0.01	−0.93	−0.41
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.20	11.65	+0.45	+1.21	−0.02	−0.85	+0.11
Land Power	National Security	8.80	9.04	+0.24	+1.28	−0.02	−0.99	−0.02
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	7.66	7.75	+0.09	+0.94	−0.01	−0.86	+0.02
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.17	7.19	+0.02	+1.39	−0.01	−1.27	−0.09
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.03	0.01	−0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.02
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	9.32	9.07	−0.25	+1.25	−0.02	−0.99	−0.49
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	9.95	−0.38	0.00	−0.01	−0.31	−0.06
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	3.30	2.86	−0.44	0.00	−0.01	−0.40	−0.03
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.59	−0.48	0.00	−0.01	−0.49	+0.02
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.09	10.57	−0.52	+0.46	−0.01	−0.88	−0.08
Space Operations	National Security	4.34	3.78	−0.56	0.00	−0.01	−0.45	−0.10
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.45	9.88	−0.57	0.00	0.00	−0.84	+0.27
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	4.88	−0.58	0.00	−0.01	−0.40	−0.18
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.73	10.14	−0.59	0.00	−0.01	−0.61	+0.02
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.72	−0.62	0.00	−0.01	−0.56	−0.06
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.20	9.51	−0.69	0.00	0.00	−0.84	+0.16
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.23	−0.70	0.00	−0.01	−0.60	−0.10
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.50	10.78	−0.72	0.00	−0.01	−0.60	−0.12
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	10.07	9.33	−0.74	0.00	−0.01	−0.61	−0.13
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.71	4.94	−0.77	0.00	−0.01	−0.76	0.00
Maritime Power	National Security	4.93	4.15	−0.78	0.00	−0.01	−0.76	−0.02
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	6.16	−0.78	0.00	−0.01	−0.69	−0.08
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	5.30	4.51	−0.79	0.00	−0.01	−0.70	−0.09
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.56	9.74	−0.82	0.00	−0.01	−0.91	+0.10
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.26	11.44	−0.82	0.00	−0.01	−0.58	−0.23
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	10.07	9.24	−0.83	0.00	0.00	−0.83	+0.01
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.10	4.26	−0.84	0.00	−0.01	−0.77	−0.06
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.70	4.85	−0.85	0.00	−0.01	−0.75	−0.09
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.12	4.23	−0.89	0.00	−0.01	−0.85	−0.02
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	9.70	−0.91	0.00	0.00	−0.83	−0.07
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	5.62	4.69	−0.93	0.00	−0.01	−0.73	−0.19
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.26	9.28	−0.98	0.00	−0.01	−0.91	−0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	5.69	−1.02	0.00	−0.01	−0.90	−0.10
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.04	10.97	−1.07	0.00	−0.01	−0.96	−0.10
Population Health	Human Capital	9.53	8.44	−1.09	0.00	0.00	−0.94	−0.14
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.67	8.34	−1.33	0.00	−0.01	−1.31	−0.01
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	9.62	−1.38	0.00	0.00	−1.37	0.00
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	9.33	−1.42	0.00	−0.01	−1.39	0.00
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.39	8.90	−1.49	0.00	−0.01	−1.23	−0.25
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.58	5.07	−1.51	0.00	−0.01	−1.46	−0.04
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.50	6.95	−1.55	0.00	−0.01	−1.43	−0.11
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.65	7.10	−1.55	0.00	−0.01	−1.46	−0.09
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.78	9.20	−1.58	0.00	−0.01	−1.18	−0.40
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	7.64	6.00	−1.64	0.00	−0.01	−1.48	−0.15
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.50	7.83	−1.67	0.00	−0.01	−1.61	−0.05
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.08	8.37	−1.71	0.00	−0.01	−1.19	−0.50
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.97	7.22	−1.75	0.00	−0.01	−1.70	−0.04
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.55	7.78	−1.77	0.00	−0.01	−1.94	+0.18
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.98	8.20	−1.78	0.00	−0.01	−1.70	−0.07
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.57	7.73	−1.84	0.00	−0.01	−1.61	−0.22
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.23	8.39	−1.84	0.00	−0.01	−1.85	+0.01
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	5.64	−2.14	0.00	−0.01	−1.86	−0.28
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.60	6.43	−2.17	0.00	−0.01	−1.98	−0.18
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	9.86	7.53	−2.33	0.00	−0.01	−2.57	+0.24
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.89	6.50	−2.39	0.00	−0.01	−2.23	−0.15
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.07	6.67	−2.40	0.00	−0.01	−2.33	−0.06
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.90	7.48	−2.42	0.00	−0.01	−2.46	+0.05
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.42	6.93	−2.49	0.00	−0.01	−2.41	−0.08
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.08	5.58	−2.50	0.00	−0.01	−2.29	−0.21
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.47	6.63	−2.84	0.00	−0.01	−2.61	−0.22
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.40	7.53	−2.87	0.00	−0.01	−2.99	+0.13
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.16	8.01	−3.15	+0.19	−0.01	−3.00	−0.33
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.69	6.86	−3.83	0.00	−0.01	−3.49	−0.34

Seed 21 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ltu. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.