Round 30 · simulation 21 · cycle-003.e4-nga

Round 2026

Round 30 of 30 in simulation 21 of Nigeria, scripted, 30 years from 1996: 5 actions, and the index +0.035 to 7.87.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2026 (the end of 2025) and as it left it.

Capability index: 7.87 (+0.034); In: 7.83
Rank by index: 70; In: 70
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 0; In: 0

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	3.67	3.67	0.000	10
Strategic Infrastructure	10.27	10.36	+0.085	4
National Security	6.60	6.61	+0.008	6
Human Capital	8.21	8.24	+0.033	12
Information & Influence	9.61	9.61	0.000	7
Governance & Integrity	9.46	9.47	+0.003	9
Financial Strength	8.59	8.75	+0.166	17 → 16
Production & Innovation	6.90	6.90	+0.003	15
Trade & Investment	7.17	7.18	+0.016	12

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2026: the credits, the scripted method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 201. Maintenance 160. Spent 41 on actions (build 41). 0 carried over.

BuildFiscal Capacity & Public Finance10 credits for 0.37 levelsscripted_history
BuildMonetary & Currency Capability10 credits for 0.57 levelsscripted_history
BuildResource Infrastructure10 credits for 0.28 levelsscripted_history
BuildSocial Infrastructure10 credits for 0.48 levelsscripted_history
BuildTrade Policy & Market Access1 credits for 0.07 levelsscripted_history

Tiers. Financial Strength Tier 17 to 16.

The groups that moved most in 2026, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested	Graph
Monetary & Currency Capability	+0.60	+0.58	+0.03
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.39	+0.38	+0.01
Social Infrastructure	+0.38	+0.34	+0.04
Population Health	+0.23	+0.24	−0.01
Resource Infrastructure	+0.21	+0.21	0.00
Transport Infrastructure	+0.13	+0.10	+0.03