Simulation 21
Nigeria, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.51 at the 1996 position, 7.87 in 2026; 148 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 23 (median simulation), 7 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 7.87 (+0.35)
- From 7.51
- Rank by index
- 70
- From 73
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 7.52 +0.009 | |
| 1998 |
| 7.54 +0.018 | |
| 1999 |
| 7.57 +0.027 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.61 +0.039 | |
| 2001 |
| 7.66 +0.051 | |
| 2002 |
| 7.71 +0.053 | |
| 2003 |
| 7.76 +0.054 | |
| 2004 |
| 7.81 +0.047 | |
| 2005 |
| Debt service reset | 7.87 +0.063 |
| 2006 |
| 7.94 +0.064 | |
| 2007 |
| 8.01 +0.074 | |
| 2008 |
| Breadbasket failure | 7.76 −0.251 |
| 2009 |
| Regional war spillover | 7.67 −0.087 |
| 2010 |
| 7.71 +0.032 | |
| 2011 |
| 7.74 +0.035 | |
| 2012 |
| 7.78 +0.036 | |
| 2013 |
| 7.81 +0.037 | |
| 2014 |
| Outbreak defence succeeds | 8.03 +0.220 |
| 2015 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.89 −0.146 |
| 2016 |
| 7.92 +0.032 | |
| 2017 |
| 7.95 +0.027 | |
| 2018 |
| 7.97 +0.024 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.00 +0.025 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.71 −0.281 |
| 2021 |
| 7.74 +0.022 | |
| 2022 |
| 7.76 +0.021 | |
| 2023 |
| 7.78 +0.022 | |
| 2024 |
| 7.80 +0.025 | |
| 2025 |
| 7.83 +0.027 | |
| 2026 |
| 7.87 +0.035 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| Production & Innovation | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.178 | −85.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.079 | +74.2 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.001 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.003 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.005 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.344 | +23.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.341 | +23.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.247 | +16.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.32 | 15.09 | +5.77 | +6.38 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.19 | 11.76 | +5.57 | +6.19 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.86 | 13.17 | +5.31 | +5.78 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 5.09 | 10.25 | +5.16 | +5.41 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.01 | 14.08 | +4.07 | +4.82 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.10 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.40 | 11.26 | +3.86 | +3.98 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.14 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.23 | 11.21 | +2.98 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.23 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.26 | 12.01 | +2.75 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.86 | 11.27 | +2.41 | +4.69 | 0.00 | −2.36 | +0.08 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.46 | 10.84 | +2.38 | +2.75 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.05 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 11.70 | +2.30 | +2.17 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.75 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.26 | 11.35 | +2.09 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.14 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.11 | 12.00 | +1.89 | +2.18 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.22 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.08 | 8.75 | +1.67 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.38 | 9.83 | +1.45 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.04 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.35 | 11.50 | +1.15 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.06 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.30 | 9.33 | +1.03 | +2.44 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.49 | 8.42 | +0.93 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.76 | 8.34 | +0.58 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.32 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 7.08 | +0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.60 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 6.32 | 6.48 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.34 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.08 | 8.21 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.43 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.09 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | −0.01 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 1.43 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.58 | 8.57 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.46 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 7.20 | 7.18 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 8.70 | 8.61 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.24 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.81 | 2.70 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.95 | 2.83 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.51 | 7.38 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 3.29 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 5.31 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.05 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.04 | 3.88 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.05 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 5.24 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.85 | 3.66 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.72 | 8.53 | −0.19 | +1.16 | 0.00 | −1.56 | +0.21 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.95 | 3.74 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.31 | 5.09 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.20 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.98 | 3.76 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.86 | 8.62 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.22 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 7.08 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.14 | 7.89 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.40 | 10.14 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.31 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.41 | 7.13 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.77 | 5.48 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.38 | 8.06 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.54 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 5.54 | 5.19 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.07 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.51 | 4.16 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.34 | 5.98 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.81 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.76 | 8.25 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.34 | 6.80 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.18 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.14 | 8.60 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.03 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.90 | 7.35 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.16 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.61 | 7.06 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.28 | 10.69 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.17 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 7.62 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.45 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.67 | 6.01 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 7.70 | 7.03 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.22 | 10.51 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.11 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 7.24 | 6.48 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.02 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.61 | 9.84 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.06 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.59 | 8.81 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 7.71 | 6.85 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.93 | 5.99 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.11 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.22 | 7.22 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.59 | 6.55 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.14 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.14 | 7.07 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.05 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.34 | 8.25 | −1.09 | +0.03 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.25 | 7.09 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.15 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 7.68 | 6.35 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.08 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 8.14 | 6.77 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.36 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.44 | 8.02 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.04 |
Seed 21 of experiment cycle-003.e4-nga. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.