Simulation 25
Norway, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 25: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 16.23 at the 1996 position, 16.71 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 25
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 22 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 6 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 16.71 (+0.48)
- From 16.23
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 7
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 16.25 +0.015 | |
| 1998 |
| 16.27 +0.028 | |
| 1999 |
| 16.30 +0.029 | |
| 2000 |
| 16.33 +0.028 | |
| 2001 |
| 16.35 +0.017 | |
| 2002 |
| 16.38 +0.027 | |
| 2003 |
| 16.42 +0.043 | |
| 2004 |
| 16.46 +0.044 | |
| 2005 |
| 16.50 +0.038 | |
| 2006 |
| 16.53 +0.031 | |
| 2007 |
| 16.55 +0.018 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.50 −0.056 |
| 2009 |
| 16.52 +0.021 | |
| 2010 |
| 16.55 +0.035 | |
| 2011 |
| 16.60 +0.046 | |
| 2012 |
| 16.63 +0.035 | |
| 2013 |
| 16.65 +0.018 | |
| 2014 |
| 16.66 +0.004 | |
| 2015 |
| 16.67 +0.012 | |
| 2016 |
| 16.69 +0.020 | |
| 2017 |
| 16.72 +0.029 | |
| 2018 |
| 16.75 +0.030 | |
| 2019 |
| 16.77 +0.028 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 16.63 −0.143 |
| 2021 |
| 16.65 +0.022 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 16.63 −0.020 |
| 2023 |
| 16.66 +0.025 | |
| 2024 |
| 16.68 +0.023 | |
| 2025 |
| 16.70 +0.020 | |
| 2026 |
| 16.71 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.843 | −64.2 | −2.00 |
| No shocks | +0.281 | +19.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.180 | +12.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.059 | +4.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.045 | +3.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.16 | 20.00 | +8.84 | +9.06 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.17 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 11.68 | 19.66 | +7.98 | +8.06 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.04 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.35 | 19.85 | +3.50 | +4.97 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 16.31 | 19.78 | +3.47 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 16.74 | 20.00 | +3.26 | +3.76 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.95 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.25 | 16.45 | +3.20 | +3.34 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 16.78 | 19.66 | +2.88 | +4.10 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.46 | 20.00 | +2.54 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.25 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.71 | +2.38 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.45 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.84 | 19.99 | +2.15 | +3.71 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.09 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.96 | 20.00 | +2.04 | +3.27 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.38 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 17.81 | 19.77 | +1.96 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.39 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.06 | 19.82 | +1.76 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 18.41 | 19.99 | +1.58 | +4.14 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.05 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 17.47 | 18.22 | +0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +1.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 19.14 | 19.86 | +0.72 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.17 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.12 | 19.73 | +0.61 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 19.54 | 20.00 | +0.46 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 19.13 | 19.34 | +0.21 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 7.18 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.37 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 11.72 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.30 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.00 | 15.09 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.35 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | 0.00 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.82 | 15.76 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.40 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 19.02 | 18.95 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.24 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 17.02 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.25 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.52 | 14.43 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.10 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.33 | 9.21 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.86 | 15.74 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.35 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 19.25 | 19.13 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 18.07 | 17.94 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.27 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 19.12 | 18.99 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.25 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 5.72 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.40 | 12.26 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 16.01 | 15.87 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.12 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 19.83 | 19.67 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.03 | 17.87 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 19.60 | 19.44 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 19.38 | 19.22 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.47 | 16.30 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.11 | 16.94 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 19.43 | 19.26 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 17.97 | 17.80 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 18.18 | 18.01 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.28 | 13.10 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 9.36 | 9.18 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 17.38 | 17.20 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | 0.00 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 19.05 | 18.87 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 17.93 | 17.74 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.10 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.67 | 11.47 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.07 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 15.23 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.15 | 15.94 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.02 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 8.68 | 8.46 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.48 | 19.25 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 11.57 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 19.77 | −0.23 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.81 | 15.58 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.11 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.74 | −0.26 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −0.24 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.92 | 12.65 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.07 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.99 | 17.70 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.08 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 10.46 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.30 | 11.01 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.42 | 17.13 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.01 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 19.72 | 19.41 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | 0.00 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 15.30 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.99 | 14.62 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 18.08 | 17.68 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 19.11 | 18.70 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.48 | 17.06 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 16.65 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.02 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.12 | 16.61 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.02 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 19.32 | 18.71 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.31 | 17.61 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.03 |
Seed 25 of experiment cycle-003.e4-nor. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.