Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-per

Simulation 23

Peru, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 23: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.94 at the 1996 position, 7.17 in 2026; 175 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 23

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 22 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.17 (−1.78); From 8.94
Rank by index: 80; From 60
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 9 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Buy Resource Infrastructure 13 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 13 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 13 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 13 Buy Land Power 13	Core disaster	8.60 −0.345
1998	Buy Resource Infrastructure 13 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 13 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 13 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 13 Buy Land Power 13	Global funding seizure	8.53 −0.070
1999	Buy Resource Infrastructure 13 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 13 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 13 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 13 Buy Land Power 13		8.56 +0.032
2000	Buy Resource Infrastructure 12 Buy Investment Attraction & Projection 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 Buy Land Power 12	Legitimacy rupture	8.28 −0.277
2001	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5	Core disaster	8.05 −0.235
2002	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		8.04 −0.005
2003	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		8.04 −0.004
2004	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		8.04 +0.001
2005	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		8.04 +0.002
2006	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 5 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12	Market access opening	8.12 +0.073
2007	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12	Core disaster	7.90 −0.217
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12	Global funding seizure	7.83 −0.072
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12		7.86 +0.027
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 11 Build Resource Infrastructure 11 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 11 Build Social Infrastructure 11 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11		7.88 +0.027
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 12 Build Resource Infrastructure 12 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 12 Build Social Infrastructure 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 Build Early Childhood Development 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		7.91 +0.032
2012	Build Early Childhood Development 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		7.94 +0.026
2013	Build Early Childhood Development 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		7.96 +0.023
2014	Build Early Childhood Development 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		7.98 +0.020
2015	Build Early Childhood Development 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 5		8.00 +0.018
2016	Build Early Childhood Development 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5		8.02 +0.021
2017	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5		8.04 +0.021
2018	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5		8.06 +0.022
2019	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5		8.09 +0.022
2020	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Health System Capability 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 12 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 12	Severe pandemicLegitimacy rupture	7.25 −0.833
2021	Build Health System Capability 12 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 12 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 12 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 12		7.28 +0.028
2022	Build Health System Capability 11 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 11 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 11 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 11 Build Internal Security & Order 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.31 +0.030
2023	Build Internal Security & Order 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Core disaster	7.13 −0.177
2024	Build Internal Security & Order 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.15 +0.017
2025	Build Internal Security & Order 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.15 +0.004
2026	Build Internal Security & Order 4 Build Social Infrastructure 4 Build Resource Infrastructure 4 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		7.17 +0.011

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	6	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Human Capital	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	13	12	12	12	12	12	12
Information & Influence	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Financial Strength	14	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	20	20	18	18	18	18	17
Production & Innovation	12	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
Trade & Investment	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−1.028	−75.5	0.00
No shocks	+2.999	+209.0	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.4	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.015	−1.1	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.009	−0.6	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.033	−2.3	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.006	−0.6	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.733	+51.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.454	+32.3	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.374	+26.5	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.57	15.89	+4.32	+7.39	−2.84	−0.24
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.74	16.02	+3.28	+5.68	−2.18	−0.23
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.88	11.79	+1.91	+6.01	−3.89	−0.20
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.00	11.01	+1.01	+4.32	−3.31	−0.01
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.34	12.25	+0.91	+3.12	−2.17	−0.04
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	9.71	9.82	+0.11	+1.57	−1.43	−0.02
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.02
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.97	9.94	−0.03	+3.19	−3.11	−0.12
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	7.96	7.85	−0.11	+1.68	−1.71	−0.08
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.16	10.00	−0.16	+1.88	−1.74	−0.30
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.01	7.79	−0.22	+1.42	−1.67	+0.04
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.96	9.72	−0.24	+1.99	−2.28	+0.06
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.67	8.36	−0.31	+1.35	−1.44	−0.21
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	2.15	−0.36	0.00	−0.32	−0.04
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.83	2.41	−0.42	0.00	−0.37	−0.05
Land Power	National Security	11.25	10.83	−0.42	+2.43	−2.24	−0.61
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.35	10.89	−0.46	+6.61	−6.44	−0.64
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.60	11.10	−0.50	+2.91	−3.33	−0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.26	2.74	−0.52	0.00	−0.43	−0.09
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.70	3.99	−0.71	0.00	−0.65	−0.05
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	5.16	4.41	−0.75	0.00	−0.72	−0.02
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.63	3.85	−0.78	0.00	−0.64	−0.14
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.32	4.44	−0.88	0.00	−0.74	−0.14
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.94	3.05	−0.89	0.00	−0.81	−0.08
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	10.61	−0.89	+1.63	−2.15	−0.37
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.82	4.86	−0.96	0.00	−0.81	−0.15
Space Operations	National Security	4.34	3.26	−1.08	0.00	−0.92	−0.15
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.82	4.48	−1.34	0.00	−1.22	−0.12
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.05	4.70	−1.35	0.00	−1.22	−0.14
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.06	8.64	−1.42	+0.69	−2.00	−0.11
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	6.47	4.88	−1.59	0.00	−1.50	−0.09
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.84	8.22	−1.62	0.00	−1.51	−0.10
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.23	7.61	−1.62	0.00	−1.58	−0.04
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.76	7.14	−1.62	0.00	−1.52	−0.10
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.11	6.47	−1.64	0.00	−1.66	+0.03
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.35	6.68	−1.67	0.00	−1.44	−0.23
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.22	4.55	−1.67	0.00	−1.50	−0.16
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.77	6.07	−1.70	0.00	−1.59	−0.12
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.96	8.25	−1.71	0.00	−1.71	0.00
Maritime Power	National Security	9.06	6.99	−2.07	0.00	−1.80	−0.27
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.71	8.62	−2.09	+2.79	−4.72	−0.17
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	9.95	7.85	−2.10	0.00	−1.97	−0.13
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.61	8.38	−2.23	0.00	−2.05	−0.18
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	6.97	−2.23	0.00	−2.21	−0.03
Population Health	Human Capital	9.32	7.08	−2.24	0.00	−2.09	−0.15
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	7.67	5.39	−2.28	0.00	−2.03	−0.26
Air Power	National Security	10.19	7.87	−2.32	0.00	−1.99	−0.33
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	9.08	6.76	−2.32	0.00	−2.17	−0.15
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	9.53	7.18	−2.35	0.00	−1.91	−0.44
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	9.33	6.78	−2.55	0.00	−2.48	−0.08
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	9.99	7.40	−2.59	0.00	−2.36	−0.23
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.90	7.30	−2.60	0.00	−2.35	−0.25
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.57	8.94	−2.63	+1.98	−4.47	−0.13
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.34	6.55	−2.79	0.00	−2.76	−0.03
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.84	5.99	−2.85	0.00	−2.62	−0.24
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	9.52	6.67	−2.85	0.00	−2.49	−0.36
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	8.98	−2.97	0.00	−2.36	−0.61
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.28	7.31	−2.97	0.00	−2.73	−0.24
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	9.35	6.36	−2.99	0.00	−2.43	−0.56
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.74	5.75	−2.99	0.00	−2.80	−0.19
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.84	8.78	−3.06	0.00	−2.89	−0.16
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.53	6.33	−3.20	0.00	−2.99	−0.20
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.78	6.55	−3.23	0.00	−3.08	−0.16
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.31	5.02	−3.29	0.00	−3.03	−0.26
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	6.43	−3.31	0.00	−2.82	−0.50
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	8.90	5.54	−3.36	0.00	−2.72	−0.64
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.06	6.66	−3.40	0.00	−3.15	−0.25
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	8.77	5.31	−3.46	0.00	−3.36	−0.10
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	11.56	7.75	−3.81	0.00	−3.83	+0.02
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	11.81	7.86	−3.95	0.00	−3.85	−0.10
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	10.18	6.03	−4.15	0.00	−3.73	−0.41
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.37	5.69	−4.68	0.00	−4.60	−0.08
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.32	5.24	−5.08	0.00	−5.06	−0.02

Seed 23 of experiment cycle-003.e4-per. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.