Simulation 16
Singapore, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 16: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 15.25 at the 1996 position, 15.25 in 2026; 112 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 16
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (median simulation), 27 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 15.25 (0.00)
- From 15.25
- Rank by index
- 10
- From 10
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 6
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.15 −0.094 |
| 1998 |
| 15.21 +0.052 | |
| 1999 |
| 15.27 +0.061 | |
| 2000 |
| 15.41 +0.147 | |
| 2001 |
| 15.51 +0.093 | |
| 2002 |
| 15.51 +0.003 | |
| 2003 |
| Severe pandemic | 15.34 −0.173 |
| 2004 |
| 15.38 +0.047 | |
| 2005 |
| 15.41 +0.024 | |
| 2006 |
| 15.41 +0.004 | |
| 2007 |
| 15.42 +0.011 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.30 −0.116 |
| 2009 |
| 15.33 +0.023 | |
| 2010 |
| 15.33 +0.003 | |
| 2011 |
| 15.34 +0.003 | |
| 2012 |
| 15.37 +0.030 | |
| 2013 |
| 15.42 +0.054 | |
| 2014 |
| 15.46 +0.042 | |
| 2015 |
| 15.46 +0.001 | |
| 2016 |
| 15.47 +0.011 | |
| 2017 |
| 15.49 +0.022 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 15.47 −0.020 |
| 2019 | No actions | 15.44 −0.033 | |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 15.09 −0.349 |
| 2021 |
| 15.11 +0.021 | |
| 2022 |
| 15.15 +0.036 | |
| 2023 |
| 15.20 +0.047 | |
| 2024 |
| 15.22 +0.029 | |
| 2025 |
| 15.23 +0.007 | |
| 2026 |
| 15.25 +0.015 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.112 | −88.3 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +0.694 | +42.7 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.003 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.001 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.241 | +15.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.190 | +13.5 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.145 | +9.2 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 12.06 | 20.00 | +7.94 | +9.86 | −0.02 | −0.92 | +0.55 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 12.43 | 20.00 | +7.57 | +9.98 | −0.03 | −0.82 | +0.62 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 13.61 | 19.65 | +6.04 | +9.61 | −0.01 | −0.57 | +0.26 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 12.12 | +5.09 | +5.40 | −0.01 | −0.70 | +0.40 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.23 | 19.04 | +4.81 | +7.42 | −0.04 | −1.80 | +0.80 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 15.15 | 19.80 | +4.65 | +13.74 | −0.01 | −0.47 | −0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 15.83 | 19.62 | +3.79 | +6.70 | −0.02 | −1.08 | +1.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.11 | 19.89 | +3.78 | +8.45 | −0.04 | −0.74 | +0.37 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 16.32 | 19.79 | +3.47 | +11.48 | −0.01 | −0.47 | −0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.18 | 19.53 | +3.35 | +8.66 | −0.02 | −1.20 | +0.12 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 16.79 | 20.00 | +3.21 | +5.46 | −0.04 | −0.86 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.41 | 19.54 | +3.13 | +3.93 | −0.01 | −0.56 | −0.09 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.37 | 18.70 | +1.33 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.50 | +0.21 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.72 | 19.95 | +1.23 | +3.62 | −0.02 | −0.46 | +0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 13.73 | 14.38 | +0.65 | +1.15 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.09 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 19.11 | 19.20 | +0.09 | +4.12 | −0.01 | −1.22 | −0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 12.86 | +0.04 | +0.50 | −0.02 | −0.39 | −0.06 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.86 | 12.85 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.39 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 12.57 | 12.50 | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.34 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.78 | 5.44 | −0.34 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.08 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.53 | 3.18 | −0.35 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.52 | 9.09 | −0.43 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.91 | +0.49 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 12.00 | 11.54 | −0.46 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | −0.05 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 11.01 | −0.46 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 19.67 | 19.19 | −0.48 | +3.94 | −0.01 | −1.21 | +0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 9.87 | 9.36 | −0.51 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 9.50 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.53 | +0.01 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.64 | 13.11 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.41 | 17.84 | −0.57 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.48 | −0.06 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.92 | −0.58 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.54 | −0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.74 | 15.15 | −0.59 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.03 | +0.47 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 17.84 | 17.25 | −0.59 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 18.24 | 17.64 | −0.60 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.59 | −0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.72 | −0.61 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.53 | −0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 14.36 | 13.75 | −0.61 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.79 | 14.17 | −0.62 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.92 | 18.29 | −0.63 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.48 | −0.13 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.11 | 13.47 | −0.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.37 | 13.73 | −0.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.56 | −0.08 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.50 | 14.86 | −0.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.50 | −0.13 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 18.05 | 17.39 | −0.66 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.50 | 16.83 | −0.67 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | −0.15 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 10.29 | −0.69 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.94 | +0.27 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.53 | 17.72 | −0.81 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.64 | −0.15 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 19.07 | 18.25 | −0.82 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.92 | +0.10 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 11.60 | 10.76 | −0.84 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.95 | +0.12 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.85 | 17.99 | −0.86 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.00 | +0.16 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.69 | 15.82 | −0.87 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.80 | −0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.90 | 10.02 | −0.88 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.96 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.36 | 9.45 | −0.91 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.96 | +0.06 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.53 | 15.62 | −0.91 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.87 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.83 | 15.88 | −0.95 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.74 | −0.20 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 18.13 | 17.18 | −0.95 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.84 | −0.10 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 15.46 | 14.48 | −0.98 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.08 | +0.12 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.80 | 15.80 | −1.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.98 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 15.46 | 14.44 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.90 | −0.10 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 17.39 | 16.26 | −1.13 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.02 | −0.09 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.96 | 14.80 | −1.16 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.21 | +0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 15.91 | −1.19 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.05 | −0.13 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 18.82 | 17.60 | −1.22 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.01 | −0.19 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 18.76 | 17.46 | −1.30 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.87 | +0.59 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.10 | 15.79 | −1.31 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.24 | −0.06 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.57 | −1.34 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.50 | +0.17 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 15.82 | −1.43 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.39 | −0.03 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 19.97 | 18.42 | −1.55 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.38 | −0.14 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.73 | 16.18 | −1.55 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.42 | −0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.64 | 16.07 | −1.57 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.43 | −0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 10.58 | −1.57 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.53 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 19.29 | 17.71 | −1.58 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.60 | +0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 17.08 | 15.48 | −1.60 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.89 | +0.31 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 18.49 | 16.85 | −1.64 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.53 | −0.10 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 19.81 | 17.88 | −1.93 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.79 | −0.11 |
Seed 16 of experiment cycle-003.e4-sgp. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.