Simulation 10
Thailand, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 10: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.39 at the 1996 position, 9.89 in 2026; 129 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.89 (−0.50)
- From 10.39
- Rank by index
- 47
- From 44
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.92 −0.474 |
| 1998 |
| 9.98 +0.065 | |
| 1999 |
| 10.05 +0.064 | |
| 2000 |
| 10.11 +0.065 | |
| 2001 |
| 10.16 +0.054 | |
| 2002 |
| 10.21 +0.044 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.26 +0.052 | |
| 2004 |
| Core disaster | 10.17 −0.094 |
| 2005 |
| 10.22 +0.051 | |
| 2006 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 10.10 −0.116 |
| 2007 |
| 10.15 +0.045 | |
| 2008 |
| 10.19 +0.045 | |
| 2009 |
| 10.23 +0.042 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.28 +0.041 | |
| 2011 |
| Core disaster | 10.09 −0.185 |
| 2012 |
| 10.13 +0.035 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.16 +0.031 | |
| 2014 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 10.02 −0.141 |
| 2015 |
| 10.07 +0.054 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.11 +0.042 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.15 +0.037 | |
| 2018 |
| 10.18 +0.032 | |
| 2019 |
| 10.21 +0.025 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 9.78 −0.424 |
| 2021 |
| 9.79 +0.013 | |
| 2022 |
| 9.81 +0.015 | |
| 2023 |
| 9.83 +0.020 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.85 +0.021 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.87 +0.020 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.89 +0.022 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Financial Strength | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Production & Innovation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Trade & Investment | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.545 | −114.3 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.502 | +98.0 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.008 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.008 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.064 | −4.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.005 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.543 | +35.8 | +1.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.437 | +29.5 | +1.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.189 | +12.4 | +0.90 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.50 | 14.51 | +8.01 | +9.03 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 12.07 | 18.69 | +6.62 | +8.71 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.13 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.11 | 16.27 | +6.16 | +7.23 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.02 | 18.63 | +5.61 | +6.54 | 0.00 | −1.16 | +0.24 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 6.43 | 11.95 | +5.52 | +6.43 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.10 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.85 | 11.11 | +3.26 | +4.58 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.02 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.35 | 17.43 | +3.08 | +6.36 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.20 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 13.52 | +2.43 | +4.25 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.23 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.93 | 14.31 | +2.38 | +4.24 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 14.16 | 16.33 | +2.17 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −2.97 | +0.21 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.61 | 15.71 | +2.10 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.22 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.27 | 15.78 | +1.51 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.36 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 13.52 | +1.37 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.38 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.02 | 14.05 | +1.03 | +2.20 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.59 | 10.60 | +1.01 | +4.04 | 0.00 | −3.08 | +0.05 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.23 | 10.94 | +0.71 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −3.10 | −0.06 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.14 | 0.11 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.24 | 12.13 | −0.11 | +2.40 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.19 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 7.53 | 7.35 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.63 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.22 | 11.98 | −0.24 | +3.36 | 0.00 | −3.51 | −0.09 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 2.96 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.11 | 3.58 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 8.09 | 7.41 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.24 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 4.48 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.95 | 5.17 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 5.49 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.13 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.62 | 4.80 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 7.46 | 6.61 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 5.85 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.09 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.42 | 6.53 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.97 | 7.04 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.74 | 10.76 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.26 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.40 | 11.37 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 10.26 | 9.18 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.03 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.66 | 7.57 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.51 | 8.41 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.11 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.12 | 9.01 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.33 | 9.21 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.06 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.24 | 9.10 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.36 | 10.18 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.12 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.53 | 11.34 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.17 |
| Air Power | National Security | 10.75 | 9.53 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.16 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.66 | 6.43 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 8.16 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.17 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.11 | 5.74 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.25 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.14 | 9.75 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.04 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.28 | 7.88 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.11 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.26 | 10.82 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.71 | 8.26 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.11 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.30 | 12.83 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 9.98 | 8.51 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 13.30 | 11.78 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | +0.78 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.47 | 8.92 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.57 | 8.93 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | +0.05 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.32 | 8.57 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.17 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.16 | 8.41 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | +0.41 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.85 | 11.08 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.24 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.27 | 11.50 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.03 | 10.24 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.10 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.93 | 10.14 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.10 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 9.25 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.16 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.06 | 10.19 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.25 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 9.51 | 7.57 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.23 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.79 | 9.82 | −1.97 | +2.95 | 0.00 | −4.59 | −0.32 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 10.94 | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | +0.15 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.81 | 6.72 | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.20 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.90 | 10.70 | −2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | +0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.44 | 10.18 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.38 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.17 | 10.74 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.20 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.56 | 7.13 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.09 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.77 | 9.86 | −2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.38 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.10 | 7.04 | −3.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.82 | −0.23 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 13.89 | 10.53 | −3.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.29 | −0.07 |
Seed 10 of experiment cycle-003.e4-tha. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.