E4 · cycle-003.e4-tha

Thailand, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Thailand decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 8, Legitimacy rupture in year 10, Core disaster in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.89 (−0.50); From 10.39; 9.88 to 9.90
Rank by index: 47; From 44; 47 to 48
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 1 to 1
Tier rank: 19; From 41; 19 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.39	9.88	9.89	9.90	higher
Rank by index	44	47	47	48	lower
Tier rank	41	19	19	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	1	1	1	higher
Score sum	745.5	718.5	719.1	719.8	higher
Goal-weighted score	745.5	718.5	719.1	719.8	higher
Resilient score	745.5	719.1 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 66 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 34 per cent of the 2,002 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Thailand actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.39; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 10.70; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.89; 9.84 to 9.95
Skill against persistence: −1.68; group error 2.12 against 0.79 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	6.22	6.18	7.36 7.3–7.4	+1.19	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	12.17	12.22	13.08 13.0–13.1	+0.86	wrong
National Security	8.36	8.50	7.47 7.4–7.5	−1.03	wrong
Human Capital	10.85	11.66	10.90 10.8–10.9	−0.76	wrong
Information & Influence	10.00	10.32	8.27 8.2–8.3	−2.05	wrong
Governance & Integrity	10.24	10.51	8.97 8.9–9.0	−1.54	wrong
Financial Strength	11.31	12.78	10.35 10.3–10.4	−2.43	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.72	11.31	9.56 9.5–9.6	−1.75	right
Trade & Investment	12.64	12.81	13.08 13.0–13.1	+0.27	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 1.4 The Asian financial crisis began in Thailand with the baht collapse, bank failures, an IMF bail-out and a deep recession.
2004 · S07 × 0.5 The Indian Ocean tsunami struck the Andaman coast, killing thousands and destroying tourism and fishing assets, though it did not disable the national economic core.
2006 · S05 × 0.6 The military coup against Thaksin Shinawatra and the ensuing political instability undermined effective government for years.
2011 · S07 × 0.8 Great floods inundated Bangkok and major industrial estates, disrupting global automotive and electronics supply chains.
2014 · S05 × 0.7 Another military coup ended civilian rule and installed a junta, further stressing legitimacy and governance.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 collapsed tourism and external demand; Thailand contained early outbreaks but suffered severe economic damage.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · partner · 5% each The IMF-led stabilisation after the 1997 crisis forced financial and fiscal reform and restored macroeconomic management. (Financial Regulation & Integrity, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
2001–2006 · build · 5% each The Thaksin-era 'dual-track' policies expanded rural credit, universal health care and export-related infrastructure. (Health System Capability, Social Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2007–2013 · build · 5% each Post-coup governments prioritised megaprojects, auto and electronics upgrading, logistics and inward investment. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Advanced Manufacturing, Investment Attraction & Projection, Export Capability & Sophistication)
2014–2019 · partner · 5% each Thailand 4.0 and the Eastern Economic Corridor sought FDI in advanced industry, robotics, aviation and digital services. (Advanced Manufacturing, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Investment Attraction & Projection)
2020–2026 · build · 5% each COVID-19 recovery and bio-circular-green development focused on health security, digital skills, connectivity and public services. (Biotechnology & Health Technologies, Digital & AI Competence, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Social Infrastructure)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The 1996 baseline is inferred from fragmentary development data and should be treated as a judgement about relative position, not a precise measurement. The informal economy and Bangkok's concentration make nationwide capability scores especially uncertain. Thailand's repeated political ruptures and heavy reliance on foreign direct investment mean that some recorded priorities may have delivered less domestic capability than spending figures imply.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Thailand played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.39 to a median of 9.89 (−0.50), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.88 and 9.91 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 44 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 41. Its base income is 343 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 2,002 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Export Capability & Sophistication (build, 215 credits, 10.7 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 115 credits, 5.7 per cent); Investment Attraction & Projection (build, 115 credits, 5.7 per cent); Advanced Manufacturing (build, 115 credits, 5.7 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 115 credits, 5.7 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 66 per cent, partner 34 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.062, and the most repeated action appeared in 43 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 6 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −33.2 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −30.8 points each); S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −12.9 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −4.59; Monetary & Currency Capability −3.51; Financial System Depth & Access −3.29; Financial Regulation & Integrity −3.10 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.34 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.31 points); Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies to Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (+0.70 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 47 (5th to 95th percentile 47 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (1 to 1) and the median tier rank 19; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 719 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: trade and investment (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.502 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.502 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.545: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.064 and −0.005, for example 1997 partner Financial Regulation & Integrity (17 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.543 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-tha/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 28) ends −0.02 from it, with 6 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.39 the model ends at 9.89, where the 2026 ratings put it at 10.70. Group scores miss by 2.12 points on average, against 0.79 for assuming nothing changed (skill −1.68); the change in each domain has the right sign in 11 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−2.43); furthest above: critical technology (+1.19) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.545	−114.3	−1.00
No shocks	+1.502	+98.0	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.008	−0.3	0.00	1997 partner Financial Regulation & Integrity (17 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.008	−0.3	0.00	1997 partner Financial Stability & Crisis Management (17 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.064	−4.5	0.00	1997 partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (17 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.005	−0.1	0.00	1997 partner Monetary & Currency Capability (17 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.008	−0.6	0.00	1997 partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration (17 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.543	+35.8	+1.00	1997 S02 (-33.2 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.437	+29.5	+1.00	2020 S10 (-30.8 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.189	+12.4	+0.90	2011 S07 (-15.5 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	1.0	−33.2
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	14.0	−12.1
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	11.5	−12.9
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−30.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.50	14.23 13.94 to 14.56	+7.73	8.76	125
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	12.07	18.68 18.64 to 18.71	+6.61	8.77	215
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.11	16.28 16.23 to 16.30	+6.17	7.21	108
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.02	18.70 18.62 to 18.78	+5.68	6.54	211
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.43	11.95 11.92 to 12.04	+5.52	6.42	97
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.85	11.09 11.07 to 11.11	+3.24	4.58	108
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.35	17.40 17.36 to 17.45	+3.05	6.39	131
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.09	13.51 13.47 to 13.55	+2.42	4.25	115
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.93	14.34 14.28 to 14.39	+2.41	4.23	100
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	14.16	16.40 16.31 to 16.47	+2.24	4.92	100
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.61	15.68 15.59 to 15.76	+2.07	3.87	115
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.27	15.85 15.78 to 15.93	+1.58	2.98	100
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	13.53 13.47 to 13.64	+1.38	3.69	100
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.02	14.15 14.02 to 14.24	+1.13	2.30	42
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	9.59	10.58 10.57 to 10.61	+0.99	4.03	67
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.23	10.93 10.91 to 10.95	+0.70	3.87	67
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.14	0.11 0.11 to 0.11	−0.03	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	12.24	12.13 12.10 to 12.16	−0.11	2.40	67
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	7.53	7.41 7.19 to 7.63	−0.12	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	12.22	11.96 11.93 to 12.02	−0.26	3.36	67
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	2.96 2.94 to 2.98	−0.48	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.11	3.57 3.56 to 3.58	−0.54	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.48 4.45 to 4.49	−0.70	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	8.09	7.36 7.29 to 7.47	−0.73	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	5.95	5.17 5.14 to 5.18	−0.78	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	5.52 5.49 to 5.54	−0.78	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.62	4.80 4.80 to 4.83	−0.82	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	7.46	6.62 6.60 to 6.66	−0.84	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	6.71	5.86 5.84 to 5.89	−0.85	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.42	6.55 6.49 to 6.61	−0.87	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.97	7.01 6.99 to 7.03	−0.96	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.40	11.38 11.35 to 11.43	−1.02	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.74	10.71 10.62 to 10.78	−1.03	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	12.53	11.45 11.36 to 11.57	−1.08	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.26	9.17 9.15 to 9.20	−1.09	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.51	8.42 8.40 to 8.45	−1.09	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	8.66	7.57 7.55 to 7.59	−1.09	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	10.12	8.99 8.96 to 9.02	−1.13	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	9.20 9.19 to 9.21	−1.13	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.24	9.10 9.10 to 9.10	−1.14	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.36	10.18 10.16 to 10.20	−1.18	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.66	6.43 6.43 to 6.44	−1.23	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	10.75	9.49 9.47 to 9.52	−1.26	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.14 8.09 to 8.18	−1.26	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	11.14	9.81 9.72 to 9.91	−1.33	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.11	5.78 5.73 to 5.82	−1.33	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.28	7.90 7.88 to 7.92	−1.38	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	12.26	10.87 10.82 to 10.91	−1.39	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.71	8.25 8.22 to 8.29	−1.46	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.30	12.83 12.82 to 12.85	−1.47	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	9.98	8.50 8.46 to 8.52	−1.48	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	13.30	11.78 11.58 to 11.92	−1.52	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.47	8.89 8.86 to 8.93	−1.58	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.57	8.90 8.86 to 8.93	−1.67	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.32	8.61 8.58 to 8.64	−1.71	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	11.08 10.96 to 11.15	−1.77	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.03	10.26 10.18 to 10.31	−1.77	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.16	8.38 8.25 to 8.48	−1.78	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.93	10.13 10.08 to 10.17	−1.80	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.09	9.27 9.21 to 9.31	−1.82	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	12.06	10.24 10.19 to 10.30	−1.82	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.27	11.45 11.41 to 11.51	−1.82	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.51	7.55 7.52 to 7.59	−1.96	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.03	10.97 10.92 to 11.03	−2.06	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.81	6.75 6.70 to 6.78	−2.06	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.79	9.72 9.66 to 9.83	−2.07	2.95	67
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	12.90	10.70 10.67 to 10.75	−2.20	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	12.44	10.18 10.11 to 10.27	−2.26	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.56	7.11 7.10 to 7.15	−2.45	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.17	10.68 10.63 to 10.74	−2.49	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	12.77	9.95 9.89 to 10.01	−2.82	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.10	7.04 7.00 to 7.11	−3.06	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	13.89	10.50 10.48 to 10.53	−3.39	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.102 to 19.263
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.6e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.53 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 44; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.062; most funded group economic.trade_and_investment.export_capability_and_sophistication
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 43% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 2.5% since cycle-002 (9.66 to 9.89); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 2.6% since cycle-002 (701.21 to 719.12); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-tha. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Thailand (THA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Core disaster in year 8, Legitimacy rupture in year 10, Core disaster in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 343.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.0 seconds in all; 1597 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.