Simulation 16
Vietnam, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 16: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.67 at the 1996 position, 8.02 in 2026; 124 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 16
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (median simulation), 26 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.02 (+0.35)
- From 7.67
- Rank by index
- 68
- From 71
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 7.52 −0.149 |
| 1998 |
| 7.58 +0.058 | |
| 1999 |
| 7.63 +0.055 | |
| 2000 |
| 7.68 +0.053 | |
| 2001 |
| Market access opening | 7.81 +0.125 |
| 2002 |
| 7.92 +0.116 | |
| 2003 |
| 8.04 +0.111 | |
| 2004 |
| 8.07 +0.038 | |
| 2005 |
| 8.11 +0.036 | |
| 2006 |
| 8.14 +0.035 | |
| 2007 |
| Market access opening | 8.27 +0.130 |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.12 −0.151 |
| 2009 |
| 8.24 +0.118 | |
| 2010 |
| 8.27 +0.026 | |
| 2011 |
| 8.30 +0.029 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.32 +0.027 | |
| 2013 |
| 8.35 +0.027 | |
| 2014 |
| 8.38 +0.030 | |
| 2015 |
| 8.41 +0.031 | |
| 2016 |
| Core disaster | 8.31 −0.100 |
| 2017 |
| 8.34 +0.026 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.36 +0.023 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.38 +0.023 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.09 −0.290 |
| 2021 |
| 8.12 +0.031 | |
| 2022 |
| 8.15 +0.032 | |
| 2023 |
| 8.18 +0.025 | |
| 2024 |
| Core disaster | 7.99 −0.191 |
| 2025 |
| 8.01 +0.015 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.02 +0.015 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.059 | −73.2 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.235 | +83.8 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.038 | −2.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.001 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.002 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.346 | +23.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.333 | +22.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.220 | +15.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.34 | 16.85 | +7.51 | +8.13 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 8.89 | 12.93 | +4.04 | +5.48 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.48 | 7.35 | +3.87 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.77 | 11.50 | +3.73 | +4.38 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.36 | 11.03 | +3.67 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.27 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.61 | 12.71 | +3.10 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.12 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.07 | 12.12 | +3.05 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.36 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 8.77 | 11.66 | +2.89 | +4.06 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.26 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 8.52 | 11.02 | +2.50 | +3.72 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.09 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 13.29 | +2.32 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.06 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.59 | 8.53 | +1.94 | +1.90 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.05 | 10.99 | +1.94 | +1.77 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.36 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 8.31 | 9.72 | +1.41 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.20 | 4.39 | +1.19 | +1.21 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.28 | 11.43 | +1.15 | +1.85 | 0.00 | −0.70 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.51 | 3.47 | +0.96 | +0.87 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 6.39 | +0.96 | +1.05 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.06 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.75 | 10.52 | +0.77 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.06 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 8.57 | 9.21 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.40 | +0.24 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.34 | 6.77 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.75 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.72 | 9.12 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.40 | 0.00 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.73 | 7.91 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | +0.40 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.55 | 1.71 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.62 | 8.77 | +0.15 | +0.25 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.18 | 2.29 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.08 | 8.15 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.20 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.72 | 7.79 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.16 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.96 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 5.51 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.39 | 3.40 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.98 | 8.99 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.32 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.78 | 6.79 | +0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.04 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.55 | 6.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.02 | 6.99 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 3.85 | 3.82 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.07 | 8.02 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.08 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 8.13 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.98 | 3.82 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.05 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.32 | 9.13 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.15 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.86 | 8.66 | −0.20 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −2.57 | −0.17 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 5.46 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.05 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.51 | 10.26 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 5.54 | 5.28 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.92 | 9.65 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.88 | 6.56 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.02 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.69 | 7.34 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 4.84 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 5.62 | 5.25 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.57 | 11.18 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 10.37 | 9.97 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.68 | 11.28 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.06 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 7.79 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.62 | 7.19 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.07 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.65 | 8.20 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.67 | 6.20 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.02 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 11.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.18 | 8.70 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.90 | 7.36 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.02 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.82 | 8.26 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.26 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.20 | 8.61 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.04 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.45 | 5.86 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.24 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 8.65 | 8.01 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.06 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 6.51 | 5.85 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.02 | 8.34 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.06 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.63 | 6.93 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.16 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 8.15 | 7.32 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.15 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 9.08 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.22 | 7.16 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.17 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.38 | 6.81 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.57 | 6.81 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.12 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.30 | 6.43 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.07 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 7.91 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.11 |
Seed 16 of experiment cycle-003.e4-vnm. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.