E4 · cycle-003.e4-vnm

Vietnam, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Vietnam decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Market access opening in year 5, Market access opening in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Core disaster in year 28.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 8.03 (+0.36); From 7.67; 8.02 to 8.03
Rank by index: 67; From 71; 67 to 68
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 56; From 83; 56 to 56

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	7.67	8.02	8.03	8.03	higher
Rank by index	71	67	67	68	lower
Tier rank	83	56	56	56	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	550.0	577.2	577.5	578.0	higher
Goal-weighted score	550.0	577.2	577.5	578.0	higher
Resilient score	550.0	577.6 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 81 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 19 per cent of the 979 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Vietnam actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 7.67; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 9.68; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 8.03; 8.00 to 8.05
Skill against persistence: +0.08; group error 1.99 against 2.16 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	3.37	5.97	4.07 4.0–4.1	−1.90	right
Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	11.23	8.92 8.9–9.0	−2.31	right
National Security	6.79	8.62	6.56 6.5–6.6	−2.07	wrong
Human Capital	9.12	10.91	9.68 9.6–9.7	−1.23	right
Information & Influence	7.77	9.22	7.21 7.2–7.2	−2.01	wrong
Governance & Integrity	8.46	8.59	8.56 8.6–8.6	−0.03	right
Financial Strength	8.15	9.77	7.39 7.4–7.4	−2.38	wrong
Production & Innovation	8.33	10.88	8.62 8.6–8.7	−2.27	right
Trade & Investment	8.43	11.89	11.24 11.2–11.3	−0.65	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S02 × 0.4 Asian financial crisis caused currency pressures and slowed foreign investment, though Vietnam's closed capital account limited direct banking collapse.
2001 · S12 × 0.6 US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement opened the US market and accelerated export-oriented manufacturing.
2007 · S12 × 0.7 WTO accession locked in trade reforms and deepened manufacturing integration.
2008 · S02 × 0.6 Global financial crisis cut export demand and foreign investment and exposed inflation and balance-sheet weaknesses.
2016 · S07 × 0.3 Formosa steel plant toxic discharge devastated fisheries along four central provinces, a regional economic and environmental shock.
2020 · S10 × 0.6 COVID-19 pandemic closed borders and factories; Vietnam's strict containment kept deaths low but tourism and supply chains were disrupted.
2024 · S07 × 0.5 Typhoon Yagi struck northern industrial provinces, killing hundreds and disabling factories and power in the economic core.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · partner · 5% each Pursued export-oriented industrialisation through foreign direct investment and US and ASEAN market access while expanding labour-intensive manufacturing. (Investment Attraction & Projection, Industrial & Sectoral Base, Export Capability & Sophistication, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2002–2007 · build · 5% each Prepared for World Trade Organisation accession by deepening trade reforms, modernising border and financial systems, and investing in basic education and investment promotion. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Trade Facilitation & Logistics, Financial Infrastructure, Foundational Education, Investment Attraction & Projection)
2008–2013 · build · 5% each Responded to macroeconomic instability with state financial strengthening and a national infrastructure push in power, transport and resource supply. (Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure)
2014–2019 · build · 2% each Upgraded manufacturing capabilities and digital connectivity while moving higher in electronics and supplier value chains and expanding tertiary education. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Advanced Education, Global Value Chain Position)
2020–2023 · build · 5% each Strengthened pandemic response and national resilience while accelerating digital adoption and reinforcing Vietnam's position in shifting global supply chains. (Health System Capability, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Global Value Chain Position, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies)
2024–2026 · build · 5% each Launched national programmes for semiconductors, artificial intelligence and green energy, aiming to move from assembly into higher-technology innovation and skills. (Energy Technologies, Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Innovation & Commercialisation, Digital & AI Competence)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The precise scores for opaque national security and state-led technology programmes in 1996 are uncertain and rely on limited Vietnamese and international data. Mapping complex transitions such as WTO accession and the COVID-19 pandemic onto single synthetic shocks necessarily compresses detail, so event magnitudes are approximate judgements. Mid-1990s Vietnamese statistics vary across sources, especially for human capital and infrastructure, adding uncertainty to the foundational scores.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Vietnam played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 7.67 to a median of 8.03 (+0.36), with 90 per cent of simulations between 8.02 and 8.03 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 71 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 83. Its base income is 193 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 979 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Technology Adoption & Diffusion (build, 64 credits, 6.5 per cent); Monetary & Currency Capability (build, 59 credits, 6.0 per cent); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (build, 59 credits, 6.0 per cent); Trade Facilitation & Logistics (build, 59 credits, 6.0 per cent); Financial Infrastructure (build, 59 credits, 6.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 81 per cent, partner 19 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.059, and the most repeated action appeared in 33 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Trade & Investment; rounds 6 to 10, Trade & Investment; rounds 11 to 15, Financial Strength; rounds 16 to 20, Financial Strength; rounds 21 to 25, Production & Innovation; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 2 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −21.9 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −14.8 points each); S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −11.9 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 60 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.87; Investment Attraction & Projection −2.67; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.52; Labour & Employment −2.51 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.04 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.04 points); Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies to Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (+0.56 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 67 (5th to 95th percentile 67 to 68), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 56; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 578 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.235 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.235 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.059: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.038 and +0.002, for example 2009 build Monetary & Currency Capability (10 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.346 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-vnm/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 20) ends −0.01 from it, with 5 shocks and 2 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 7.67 the model ends at 8.03, where the 2026 ratings put it at 9.68. Group scores miss by 1.99 points on average, against 2.16 for assuming nothing changed (skill +0.08); the change in each domain has the right sign in 67 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−2.38); furthest above: governance and integrity (−0.03) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.059	−73.2	0.00
No shocks	+1.235	+83.8	+1.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.004	−0.1	0.00	2009 build Monetary & Currency Capability (10 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.038	−2.6	0.00	2009 build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (10 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.002	+0.2	0.00	2021 build Health System Capability (10 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	0.00	2021 build National Resilience & Crisis Management (10 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.002	+0.0	0.00	2021 build Technology Adoption & Diffusion (10 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.346	+23.9	0.00	2020 S10 (-22.0 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.333	+22.2	0.00	2008 S02 (-18.0 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.220	+15.4	0.00	2024 S07 (-14.8 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	6.5	−14.8
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−11.9
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−21.9
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+18.5

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	9.34	16.85 16.82 to 16.86	+7.51	8.13	106
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	8.89	12.92 12.89 to 12.94	+4.03	5.47	68
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	3.48	7.36 7.22 to 7.43	+3.88	3.91	47
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	7.77	11.53 11.50 to 11.55	+3.76	4.37	64
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.36	11.00 10.91 to 11.06	+3.64	4.75	48
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.07	12.18 12.12 to 12.23	+3.11	3.84	55
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.61	12.67 12.61 to 12.72	+3.06	3.54	59
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	8.77	11.66 11.60 to 11.73	+2.89	4.06	72
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	8.52	11.02 11.00 to 11.04	+2.50	3.72	59
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.97	13.25 13.22 to 13.28	+2.28	2.63	45
Advanced Education	Human Capital	9.05	10.98 10.92 to 11.07	+1.93	1.77	24
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.59	8.50 8.46 to 8.54	+1.91	1.89	43
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	9.72 9.71 to 9.74	+1.41	3.16	59
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	3.20	4.39 4.37 to 4.40	+1.19	1.21	29
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.28	11.43 11.42 to 11.43	+1.15	1.85	40
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	6.41 6.39 to 6.45	+0.98	1.07	28
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.51	3.47 3.47 to 3.48	+0.96	0.88	29
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.75	10.51 10.49 to 10.53	+0.76	1.75	40
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	9.24 9.17 to 9.28	+0.67	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.72	9.12 9.12 to 9.12	+0.40	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.34	6.60 6.41 to 6.77	+0.26	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.55	1.71 1.71 to 1.71	+0.16	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.62	8.77 8.76 to 8.78	+0.15	0.25	6
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.73	7.88 7.76 to 7.95	+0.15	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	7.86 7.80 to 7.90	+0.14	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	2.18	2.29 2.29 to 2.29	+0.11	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.08	8.17 8.14 to 8.20	+0.09	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.98	9.06 8.99 to 9.18	+0.08	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.90	2.96 2.96 to 2.97	+0.06	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.46	5.51 5.51 to 5.52	+0.05	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	6.80 6.78 to 6.82	+0.02	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.39	3.40 3.40 to 3.40	+0.01	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.55	6.55 6.54 to 6.55	0.00	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	3.85	3.83 3.82 to 3.83	−0.02	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	6.99 6.99 to 7.00	−0.03	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	8.07	8.00 7.98 to 8.01	−0.07	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	8.25	8.13 8.11 to 8.14	−0.12	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	3.98	3.83 3.82 to 3.84	−0.15	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.32	9.16 9.11 to 9.20	−0.16	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	8.86	8.69 8.66 to 8.72	−0.17	2.54	59
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	5.46 5.45 to 5.47	−0.24	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.51	10.26 10.26 to 10.27	−0.25	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	5.54	5.27 5.27 to 5.28	−0.27	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	9.92	9.64 9.62 to 9.66	−0.28	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	6.88	6.57 6.56 to 6.58	−0.31	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	7.69	7.35 7.34 to 7.36	−0.34	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	4.84 4.83 to 4.84	−0.36	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	5.62	5.25 5.23 to 5.27	−0.37	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	7.62	7.24 7.19 to 7.28	−0.38	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.57	11.18 11.18 to 11.19	−0.39	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	11.28 11.27 to 11.29	−0.40	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	10.37	9.96 9.95 to 9.98	−0.41	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	8.21	7.80 7.79 to 7.80	−0.41	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.82	8.39 8.32 to 8.45	−0.43	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	8.21 8.20 to 8.22	−0.44	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	6.20 6.19 to 6.21	−0.47	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	11.47	11.00 10.98 to 11.00	−0.47	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.18	8.70 8.70 to 8.71	−0.48	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.90	7.37 7.36 to 7.37	−0.53	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.45	5.87 5.79 to 5.92	−0.58	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.20	8.59 8.59 to 8.61	−0.61	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	8.65	8.01 7.99 to 8.03	−0.64	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	6.51	5.84 5.84 to 5.84	−0.67	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.02	8.34 8.33 to 8.36	−0.68	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	7.63	6.95 6.90 to 7.01	−0.68	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.15	7.35 7.31 to 7.41	−0.80	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.03	9.09 9.08 to 9.10	−0.94	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	8.22	7.22 7.16 to 7.28	−1.00	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.38	6.81 6.80 to 6.82	−1.57	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	6.83 6.78 to 6.87	−1.74	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.30	6.44 6.42 to 6.46	−1.86	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	7.95 7.93 to 7.97	−1.97	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.1e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 17.921
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.8e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.28 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 71; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.059; most funded group economic.trade_and_investment.trade_policy_and_market_access
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 33% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 5.4% since cycle-002 (7.62 to 8.03); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 5.3% since cycle-002 (548.50 to 577.51); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-vnm. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Vietnam (VNM)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 1, Market access opening in year 5, Market access opening in year 11, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Core disaster in year 28
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 193.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.8 seconds in all; 1860 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.