DEV · mcts-dev.dev-est-greedy-marginal

Estonia, greedy, 4 years

2 simulations of 4 rounds from the 2026 position. Estonia decides by the greedy method; the shock and upside library, drawn at random each round.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–2 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cmaes-dev.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2030, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 2 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.75 (+0.26); From 11.49; 11.61 to 11.88
Rank by index: 31; From 33; 30 to 32
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 28; From 27; 27 to 28

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	2026	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.49	11.61	11.75	11.88	higher
Rank by index	33	30	31	32	lower
Tier rank	27	27	28	28	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	817.9	829.6	839.7	849.8	higher
Goal-weighted score	817.9	829.6	839.7	849.8	higher
Resilient score	817.9	839.7 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 0 per cent, buy took 75 per cent, partner took 25 per cent of the 348 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch mcts-dev. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 2 simulations, seeds 1 to 2; probes on 1. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Estonia played 4 rounds from 2026 under the greedy method, with stochastic events, 2 times. Its capability index moved from 11.49 to a median of 11.75 (+0.26), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.59 and 11.90 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 2026 the nation ranks 33 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 27. Its base income is 347 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 348 credits on actions. The five groups that took most were Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (buy, 70 credits, 20.0 per cent); Space Technologies (partner, 52 credits, 15.0 per cent); Energy Technologies (buy, 35 credits, 10.0 per cent); Economic Output & Productivity (buy, 35 credits, 10.0 per cent); Artificial Intelligence (buy, 35 credits, 10.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: buy 72 per cent, partner 28 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.128, and the most repeated action appeared in 100 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

The method's chosen action was within 5 per cent of its best alternative in 62 per cent of actions and ahead by more than 25 per cent in 0 per cent [experiment_decision_margins].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 0 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S06 (1 firings in 1 simulations, −23.7 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −0.41; Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks −0.36; Monetary & Currency Capability −0.35; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −0.34 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (+1.06 points); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Economic Leverage & Dependence (+0.43 points); Artificial Intelligence to Robotics & Autonomous Systems (+0.30 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2030 the median rank is 31 (5th to 95th percentile 30 to 32), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 28; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 840 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends 0.000 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.000 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.433: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.018 and −0.013, for example 2030 buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (18 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

same_action (warn): the most repeated action (group and mode) appears in a median 100% of rounds.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 1) ends +0.17 from it, with 0 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

No backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 1 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.433	−34.3
No shocks	0.000	0.0
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.015	−1.3	2030 buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing (18 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.018	−1.7	2030 buy Energy Technologies (18 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.013	−1.1	2030 buy Space Technologies (18 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.017	−1.1	2030 buy Economic Output & Productivity (18 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.018	−1.6	2030 buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies (18 credits)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 2 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 2 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	50 per cent	2.0	−23.7

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2030	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	2.50	8.56 8.46 to 8.65	+6.06	6.18	70
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	2.67	7.93 7.84 to 8.02	+5.26	5.37	70
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.33	12.82 12.58 to 13.06	+4.49	3.52	35
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	4.80	8.03 7.85 to 8.21	+3.23	3.45	35
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.50	9.99 9.50 to 10.48	+2.49	2.66	26
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.60	6.59 6.49 to 6.68	+1.99	1.83	17
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	10.00	11.98 11.83 to 12.14	+1.98	2.17	35
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.14	6.81 6.73 to 6.89	+1.67	1.77	17
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.50	15.02 14.87 to 15.17	+1.52	1.73	17
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	10.80	11.52 10.80 to 12.23	+0.72	0.81	9
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.50	14.17 13.33 to 15.00	+0.67	0.85	9
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.00	10.40 10.12 to 10.68	+0.40	0.72	9
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	8.25	8.45 8.38 to 8.52	+0.20	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.67	11.87 11.63 to 12.10	+0.20	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.00	5.95 5.87 to 6.03	−0.05	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	4.00	3.94 3.85 to 4.03	−0.06	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.75	13.69 13.54 to 13.85	−0.06	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.67	11.60 11.52 to 11.68	−0.07	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	16.25 16.18 to 16.31	−0.08	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.92 15.85 to 15.98	−0.08	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.00	11.91 11.83 to 11.98	−0.09	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.25	15.16 15.10 to 15.23	−0.09	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	14.33	14.24 14.17 to 14.31	−0.09	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	15.41 15.35 to 15.48	−0.09	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	12.50	12.41 12.27 to 12.54	−0.09	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.40	7.31 7.23 to 7.38	−0.09	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.50	5.40 5.32 to 5.48	−0.10	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	13.33	13.23 13.15 to 13.31	−0.10	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.67	8.57 8.49 to 8.65	−0.10	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	9.25	9.15 9.07 to 9.23	−0.10	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	6.00	5.90 5.82 to 5.98	−0.10	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	4.50	4.40 4.31 to 4.48	−0.10	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	14.20	14.10 14.02 to 14.18	−0.10	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	16.50	16.39 16.30 to 16.48	−0.11	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	14.33	14.22 14.13 to 14.31	−0.11	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	13.00	12.89 12.79 to 12.98	−0.11	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	16.39 16.30 to 16.48	−0.11	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.33	14.22 14.13 to 14.31	−0.11	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	14.00	13.89 13.79 to 13.98	−0.11	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.67	12.55 12.46 to 12.65	−0.12	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.75	14.63 14.32 to 14.94	−0.12	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.00	9.86 9.71 to 10.00	−0.14	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	12.00	11.86 11.72 to 11.99	−0.14	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.86	14.70 14.57 to 14.83	−0.16	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.40	17.24 17.11 to 17.37	−0.16	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.00	11.83 11.69 to 11.97	−0.17	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.25	13.08 12.95 to 13.22	−0.17	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.91	13.74 13.60 to 13.88	−0.17	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.67	5.50 5.36 to 5.64	−0.17	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	14.25	14.08 13.94 to 14.22	−0.17	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	14.50	14.33 14.19 to 14.47	−0.17	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.75	6.57 6.43 to 6.71	−0.18	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.50	11.32 11.18 to 11.46	−0.18	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	14.67	14.49 14.35 to 14.63	−0.18	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	12.00	11.82 11.67 to 11.96	−0.18	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	13.67	13.49 13.34 to 13.63	−0.18	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.75	14.57 14.43 to 14.71	−0.18	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.40	8.21 8.06 to 8.36	−0.19	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.50	11.31 11.17 to 11.46	−0.19	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.67	12.48 12.34 to 12.63	−0.19	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.33	11.14 10.96 to 11.31	−0.19	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	14.00	13.80 13.63 to 13.96	−0.20	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	9.80	9.60 9.44 to 9.76	−0.20	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	13.00	12.79 12.61 to 12.97	−0.21	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	15.78 15.60 to 15.96	−0.22	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	13.67	13.44 13.26 to 13.62	−0.23	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.67	11.43 11.24 to 11.62	−0.24	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.88	8.57 8.30 to 8.84	−0.31	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.50	11.16 10.88 to 11.43	−0.34	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.80	11.46 11.19 to 11.73	−0.34	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	14.00	13.63 13.33 to 13.93	−0.37	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.00	12.58 12.25 to 12.92	−0.42	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.4e-14
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 17.400
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded actions played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (1 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.5e-08 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-round change in a group with no shock landing: 1.92 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 0 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 33; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.128; most funded group hard.critical_technology.semiconductors_and_advanced_computing
warnsame_actionthe most repeated action (group and mode) appears in a median 100% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment mcts-dev.dev-est-greedy-marginal. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Estonia (EST)
Position: The 2026 ratings of the National Capability Index
Method: Greedy. Each round, the actions with the most value per credit: a level's own worth plus its long-run effect downstream through the graph, less the maintenance it will need, counting only what arrives before the horizon.
Scenario: The shock and upside library, drawn at random each round
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 4 rounds, 2026 to 2030
Simulations: 2 seeds, 1 to 2. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 346.9 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: MCTS development batch (mcts-dev)
Runtime: 0.1 seconds in all; 1111 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.