Greedy
Each round, the actions with the most value per credit.
How it decides
Ranks every open group and mode by value per credit. The value of a level is the level itself plus its long-run effect downstream through the Capability Dependency Graph, less the maintenance it will need; only what arrives before the horizon counts, so a slow build late in an experiment is worth little.
Spends the round's budget down the ranking: the largest chunk of income that fits, one action per group, up to five actions a round. Every action records its value and the three best actions it was preferred to.
- highest_marginal_return
- the action ranked highest by value per credit among those still open
What it is for. The bar every other method must beat. If a search cannot beat greedy, the model does not reward sequencing, which is a finding about its lags and dependencies.
Its experiments
Every experiment that used the method: the capability index at the position and the median at the horizon across its simulations.
| Experiment | Cycle | Simulations | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years cycle-001.e3-gbr-greedy-marginal | 1 | 100 | 16.45 → 18.35 (+1.90) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal | 1 | 100 | 16.00 → 17.98 (+1.98) |
| Estonia, greedy, 20 years cycle-001.e3-est-greedy-marginal | 1 | 100 | 11.49 → 12.95 (+1.47) |
| Brazil, greedy, 20 years cycle-001.e3-bra-greedy-marginal | 1 | 100 | 11.69 → 13.62 (+1.93) |
| Kenya, greedy, 20 years cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal | 1 | 100 | 7.18 → 7.38 (+0.21) |
| South Korea, greedy, 10 years cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal-10y | 1 | 100 | 16.00 → 17.41 (+1.41) |
| Kenya, greedy, 10 years cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-10y | 1 | 100 | 7.18 → 7.25 (+0.07) |
| South Korea, greedy, 30 years cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal-30y | 1 | 100 | 16.00 → 18.08 (+2.07) |
| Kenya, greedy, 30 years cycle-001.e3-ken-greedy-marginal-30y | 1 | 100 | 7.18 → 7.52 (+0.34) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years cmaes-c1.c1-kor-greedy | – | 5 | 16.00 → 17.94 (+1.93) |
| Estonia, greedy, 4 years cmaes-dev.dev-est-greedy | – | 2 | 11.49 → 11.62 (+0.13) |
| United Kingdom, greedy, 10 years stress-preview.e5-gbr-s01-greedy | – | 100 | 16.45 → 17.14 (+0.69) |
| South Korea, greedy, 10 years stress-preview.e5-kor-s01-greedy | – | 100 | 16.00 → 16.71 (+0.71) |
| United Kingdom, greedy, 10 years stress-preview.e5-gbr-s02-greedy | – | 100 | 16.45 → 17.22 (+0.77) |
| South Korea, greedy, 10 years stress-preview.e5-kor-s02-greedy | – | 100 | 16.00 → 16.90 (+0.89) |
| Estonia, greedy, 4 years mcts-dev.dev-est-greedy-marginal | – | 2 | 11.49 → 11.75 (+0.26) |
| United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2.m2-gbr-greedy-marginal | – | 50 | 16.45 → 18.31 (+1.86) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2.m2-kor-greedy-marginal | – | 50 | 16.00 → 17.98 (+1.98) |
| Estonia, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal | – | 50 | 11.49 → 12.81 (+1.33) |
| Brazil, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2.m2-bra-greedy-marginal | – | 50 | 11.69 → 13.46 (+1.77) |
| Kenya, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2.m2-ken-greedy-marginal | – | 50 | 7.18 → 7.34 (+0.16) |
| United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2b.m2b-gbr-greedy | – | 20 | 16.45 → 18.03 (+1.57) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2b.m2b-kor-greedy | – | 20 | 16.00 → 17.57 (+1.57) |
| Estonia, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2b.m2b-est-greedy | – | 20 | 11.49 → 11.97 (+0.48) |
| Brazil, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2b.m2b-bra-greedy | – | 20 | 11.69 → 12.76 (+1.07) |
| Kenya, greedy, 20 years mcts-m2b.m2b-ken-greedy | – | 20 | 7.18 → 6.97 (−0.21) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years mcts-m3.m3-kor-greedy | – | 10 | 16.00 → 17.31 (+1.31) |
| South Korea, greedy, 10 years mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-10y | – | 10 | 16.00 → 17.01 (+1.01) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-20y | – | 10 | 16.00 → 17.31 (+1.31) |
| South Korea, greedy, 30 years mcts-m4.m4-kor-greedy-30y | – | 10 | 16.00 → 17.73 (+1.72) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years mcts-m5.m5-kor-greedy | – | 10 | 16.00 → 17.31 (+1.31) |
| South Korea, greedy, 20 years mcts-m6.m6-kor-greedy | – | 20 | 16.00 → 17.63 (+1.63) |
| South Korea, greedy, 30 years from 1996 mcts-m7.m7-kor-greedy | – | 10 | 13.13 → 15.10 (+1.97) |