Round 4 · simulation 1 · mcts-dev.dev-est-mcts-index

Round 2030

Round 4 of 4 in simulation 1 of Estonia, tree search, 4 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.111 to 11.86.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.86 (+0.111)
In: 11.75
Rank by index
30
In: 30
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
98
In: 73
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology7.588.21+0.6306 → 5
Strategic Infrastructure10.8610.87+0.0065
National Security7.547.58+0.0356
Human Capital14.5614.560.0003
Information & Influence10.8010.81+0.0146
Governance & Integrity15.4615.46+0.0013
Financial Strength13.2213.23+0.0108
Production & Innovation12.9913.15+0.1645
Trade & Investment12.7512.89+0.1426

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 365, plus 73 carried in. Maintenance 249. Spent 91 on actions (buy 73, partner 18). 98 carried over.

  • PartnerNuclear Deterrence18 credits for 0.60 levelsmctsahead of Nuclear Deterrence by 0 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing18 credits for 1.60 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyEnergy Technologies18 credits for 1.69 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySpace Technologies18 credits for 1.17 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity18 credits for 1.08 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 6 to 5.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+2.13+2.130.000.000.00
Space Technologies+1.84+1.840.000.000.00
Energy Technologies+1.69+1.690.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+1.08+1.080.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.87+0.860.000.000.00
Artificial Intelligence+0.290.000.000.00+0.29