Round 4 · simulation 2 · mcts-dev.dev-est-mcts-index

Round 2030

Round 4 of 4 in simulation 2 of Estonia, tree search, 4 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.116 to 11.55.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.55 (+0.116)
In: 11.44
Rank by index
32
In: 34
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
96
In: 71
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology7.598.06+0.4676 → 5
Strategic Infrastructure10.4310.43−0.0075
National Security7.377.38+0.0096
Human Capital14.2814.28−0.0033
Information & Influence10.3710.66+0.2906
Governance & Integrity15.2515.250.0004
Financial Strength12.7312.73+0.0029
Production & Innovation12.6412.79+0.1465
Trade & Investment12.2712.41+0.1427 → 6

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 351, plus 71 carried in. Maintenance 238. Spent 87 on actions (buy 70, partner 18). 96 carried over.

  • PartnerSemiconductors & Advanced Computing18 credits for 0.87 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
  • BuyEnergy Technologies18 credits for 1.67 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity18 credits for 1.07 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance18 credits for 1.69 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySpace Technologies18 credits for 1.14 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 6 to 5; Trade & Investment Tier 7 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Space Technologies+1.82+1.820.000.000.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.73+1.690.000.00+0.04
Energy Technologies+1.66+1.670.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+1.05+1.070.000.00−0.02
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.87+0.890.000.00−0.01
Artificial Intelligence+0.460.000.000.00+0.46