Round 3 · simulation 2 · mcts-dev.dev-est-mcts-index

Round 2029

Round 3 of 4 in simulation 2 of Estonia, tree search, 4 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.099 to 11.44.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.44 (+0.099)
In: 11.34
Rank by index
34
In: 34
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
74
In: 45
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.887.59+0.7166
Strategic Infrastructure10.4310.43+0.0035
National Security7.377.37+0.0016
Human Capital14.2814.280.0003
Information & Influence10.3710.37+0.0026
Governance & Integrity15.2515.25−0.0024
Financial Strength12.7112.73+0.0159
Production & Innovation12.6312.64+0.0135
Trade & Investment12.1312.27+0.1398 → 7

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2029: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 349, plus 45 carried in. Maintenance 233. Spent 88 on actions (buy 53, partner 35). 74 carried over.

  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing18 credits for 1.49 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Nuclear Deterrence by 0 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies18 credits for 1.35 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Advanced Materials & Manufacturing by 7 per cent
  • BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing18 credits for 1.80 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Sensing, Timing & Navigation by 0 per cent
  • BuySensing, Timing & Navigation18 credits for 1.86 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 5 per cent
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access18 credits for 1.77 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks by 1 per cent

Tiers. Trade & Investment Tier 8 to 7.

The groups that moved most in 2029, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Sensing, Timing & Navigation+1.93+1.860.000.00+0.07
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing+1.80+1.800.000.000.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.49+1.490.000.000.00
Space Technologies+1.39+1.390.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.88+0.890.000.00−0.01
Artificial Intelligence+0.400.000.000.00+0.40