Round 2027
Round 1 of 20 in simulation 10 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.159 to 11.53.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.53 (−0.158)
- In: 11.69
- Rank by index
- 31
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 15
- In: 0
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.95 | 8.84 | −0.112 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.57 | −0.234 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.42 | 9.33 | −0.086 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 11.88 | 11.97 | +0.088 | 7 → 6 |
| Information & Influence | 11.86 | 11.63 | −0.231 | 5 → 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12.11 | 11.98 | −0.129 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 13.13 | 12.86 | −0.264 | 9 → 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.88 | 11.69 | −0.193 | 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.18 | 11.91 | −0.265 | 7 → 8 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 386. Maintenance 275. Spent 97 on actions (build 58, buy 19, partner 19). 15 carried over.
- PartnerNuclear Deterrence19 credits for 0.64 levelsmctsahead of Digital & AI Competence by 0 per cent
- BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.82 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.84 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.99 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation19 credits for 1.11 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −13.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 7 to 6; Information & Influence Tier 5 to 6; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 10; Trade & Investment Tier 7 to 8.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | +0.97 | +1.11 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | 0.00 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | 0.00 |