Round 2 · simulation 10 · mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-index

Round 2028

Round 2 of 20 in simulation 10 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.033 to 11.56.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2028 (the end of 2027) and as it left it.

Capability index: 11.56 (+0.033); In: 11.53
Rank by index: 31; In: 31
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 27; In: 14

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	8.84	8.87	+0.028	6
Strategic Infrastructure	13.57	13.57	0.000	3
National Security	9.33	9.35	+0.021	5
Human Capital	11.97	12.24	+0.276	6
Information & Influence	11.63	11.63	−0.003	6
Governance & Integrity	11.98	11.98	−0.001	9
Financial Strength	12.86	12.85	−0.011	10
Production & Innovation	11.69	11.69	−0.003	8
Trade & Investment	11.91	11.90	−0.010	8

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2028: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 378, plus 14 carried in. Maintenance 268. Spent 97 on actions (build 97). 27 carried over.

BuildSemiconductors & Advanced Computing19 credits for 0.85 levelsmctsahead of Digital & AI Competence by 0 per cent
BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.78 levelsmcts_fill
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.80 levelsmcts_fill
BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.94 levelsmcts_fill
BuildFoundational Education19 credits for 1.24 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2028, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.79	+0.79
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.73	+0.73
Digital & AI Competence	+0.72	+0.72
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	+0.28	+0.28
Foundational Education	+0.25	+0.25
Nuclear Deterrence	+0.21	+0.21